Friday, December 30, 2011

Scott Yasko's Verdict on Jay Cutler

When I first moved to Atlanta about a year ago there was this burning and consistent question that was asked of me over and over again. It just so happened that my move coincided with the Chicago Bears' 2010 playoff run in which Jay Cutler was unable to return to that now infamous NFC championship game against the Green Bay Packers. So my new Atlantan friends and colleagues all were interested in my thoughts and insights as they pertained to the Chicago quarterback:

"What do you think? Couldn't that pansy get back in the game?", "Hey man, do you like Jay Cutler?", "You think he's the quarterback for the Bears?", and my favorite, "Ahh, I tell you what, Jay has that pretty girlfriend distracting him from football, you think that's affecting his game?"

And as inherently candid as I typically am the answer that I consistently gave actually bothered me. My most common response was simply, "I don't know; I'm still on the fence." But Let's face it, the Bears in recent years have been nothing more than an organization owned by a family whom the game has passed by, run by a disorganized front office, and led by a patchwork quilt of a coaching staff that is determined to maintain their respective systems despite the personnel at their disposal. And because the Bears as an organization are the most consistently inconsistent team in the NFL it was hard for me to get a feel and read on what kind of quarterback Jay Cutler was.

I was excited in 08', the year before Cutler arrived in Chicago, to never have to hear Lovie Smith say again that "Rex Grossman is our quarterback," and after a formidable 9-7 season that left the Bears narrowly missing a playoff berth, an upgrade at the position was more than welcome. But after the pomp and circumstance surrounding the trade that sent Kyle Orton to Denver and the Indiana Native Cutler closer to home, the actual season was less than successful as Ron Turner's offense proved a terrible fit (duh) to a guy who saw most of his passing yards come outside the pocket in the Mile High City.

And the failures of the new Bears quarterback not being able to lead them to the playoffs in his debut season in 2009 as he threw almost as many interceptions as he did touchdowns, I was able to attribute to growing pains. At least after the season the powers that be finally decided to make a coaching change … however due to Lovie's shiny new extension that was handed to him after the Bears showed up to a Super Bowl, it was only the offensive coordinator that got the axe. Even worse to the situation was bringing in Mike Martz as Turner's replacement, because apparently bringing in a coordinator whose playbook looks more like a law school textbook and whose overall offensive scheme fit the Bears like a square peg in a round hole sounded like a good idea to General Manager Jerry Angelo at the time.

So on into 2010 the Bears went and in a season where Chicago was lauded for their offseason acquisitions highlighted by Julius Peppers, it would turn out that Angelo once again bungled his duties as Brandon Manumaleuna turned out to be fat and un-athletic and Chester Taylor's career was effectively over with his best years way behind him. And with Martz now calling the plays, what was most glaringly obvious in the beginning of the season was that Cutler was going to be killed if his O-Coordinator continued to spread the field and ignore the deficiencies on the offensive line. And so by the time the Bears reached the NFC Championship game against a Green Bay team just hitting their stride in the playoffs, Cutler had already been sacked 52 times for a total of 352 yards lost. Needless to say, when someone has been slung about, rearranged, had their clock cleaned, and generally been landed on by 230 lbs plus freak athletes all season, those experiences are bound to have a lasting effect on one’s body. And that was why I was willing to give Cutler the benefit of the doubt after not coming back into that game as well as the fact that his teammates stood by his decision; and to be completely honest, Caleb Hanie had a hell of showing in the second half of that game. The Packers were simply the better team.

So 2011 comes around and here I am perched on this fence. On one side, Jay Cutler sits shinning in the light of the holy land, surrounded by virgins and Vince Lombardi trophies as the beer flows like wine around him and Mike Ditka, Walter Payton and Sid Luckman welcome Jay with open arms into the fraternity of Bears greats. On the other side, Jay is joined by the likes of Jerry Angelo, Curtis Enis and Cade McNown who scoff and dance on the grave of George Halas as they embrace the newest member of Bears hell. And the season starts terribly.

After demolishing an Atlanta team that shot themselves in the foot the entire game, the Bears barely showed up against New Orleans and Green Bay, nearly gave it away at the end to Cam Newton and the Panthers in week 4, and were embarrassed on Monday night at Detroit. So here the Bears sit at 2-3 and the beating that Jay Cutler was taking had become monologue material for late night talk show hosts. He was sacked 18 times in the first 5 games with 11 of those coming in just the first 2. What happened to getting rid of blocking deficient offensive pieces such as Greg Olsen and replacing them with a fullback by the name of Klutts and a giant named Spaeth to help better protect your quarterback? It was like Martz forgot the plan in these first five games and insisted on 7 step drops and 4 to 5 wide receiver sets. The outcome was the continued check downs and over utilization of Matt Forte accompanied by a banged up signal caller and that “stellar” 2-3 start to the season.

Even still, what I began to recognize early in the 2011 Chicago Bears season was that Jay Cutler was a hell of quarterback. What a fan wants in his team's leader is a guy that is ice cold. A guy that will gamble for the greater good and come out on top more times than he winds up on the bottom. And a guy that continues to get up off the matt and shake off the beatings, the interceptions off his receivers' fingertips, the criticisms, and perhaps most importantly, the lack of talent around him. What I began to see in Jay Cutler in 2011 was the beacon of light that shines off the elite quarterbacks in this league. Beginning with the Minnesota game on Sunday night in mid October and ending in late November after a victory against San Diego, the Chicago Bears were quite possibly playing the best football of any team in the league. And the reason was Jay Cutler.

With all the focus in the beginning of the season on signing Matt Forte, what has become so evident, and has been proven time and time again over the past decade, is how great running backs are extremely rare and how difficult it is for a back to remain above average for a period longer than 5 years. Next year is Matt Forte's 5th year in the NFL, and without shifting gears too much, the Bears will be making the absolute right decision when they decide to give him the franchise tag and see how it goes. But also, with that being said, Jay Cutler is the most important piece to the Bears continued success in the coming years and that was proven after both he and Forte went down.

The way Cutler got hurt in that San Diego game, attempting to make a tackle after throwing an interception was so uncharacteristic by action but yet extremely characteristic by trait. Bears fans have seen Jay walk off the field after every interception and really, that is what you want your franchise quarterback to do. But I believe that the competitive fire in Jay's gut stemming from his days with the Broncos when he and Phillip Rivers bickered and battled to no end, was the reason he went for that tackle, and ultimately the reason the Bear's season turned belly up. When number 6 went down, the Bears became exposed.

If Matt Forte was the most important piece to the Bears offense, they would have won the Oakland game, and they would not have been able to pull off rushing yardage of 93, 159, 132, and 199 in the next four games without Forte. And there are those who will say that the Bears had to run due to their quarterback being out and if that was the case, and fans new they had to run, do you really think the other team didn't know that? From the Chiefs to the Packers, the Broncos to the Seahawks, they all tried to force the Bears to use their passing game, but still none of them could stop the Bears running attack. Matt Forte is a great cog in the wheel, but Jay Cutler is the glue.

Never have I seen a team collapse like the Colts did this year when their star quarterback back went down, but the pundits have been saying for years that if not for Peyton Manning, the Colts are a terrible football franchise. And by no means am I trying to compare Jay Cutler to Peyton Manning, who in mine own eyes is the greatest quarterback of all time (yes, ALL TIME), but the Bears receivers ran the same routes, the linemen blocked the same people, and the Chicago running backs made the same cuts. What was the missing piece in the last 5 games the Bears have lost? Jay Cutler.

The value of a quarterback in this league that makes the right decisions (or at least more right ones than wrongs ones) with the ball in his hand, that can extend a play when pressured, that can get up after being sacked 52 times in a season, and that makes a group of mediocre (AT BEST) receivers look like a bunch of all pros, is immeasurable. Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett are never going to make a pro bowl unless Jay Cutler puts them there. Same goes for the group of "where did they come from's" in Indianapolis.

Jay Cutler forced my hand this year and pushed me off of that fence. If number 6 was getting snaps in New Orleans, New England, or Green…. yeah I'm not even going to say that, but he would be mentioned with the Drew Brees', the Tom Brady's, and the Aaron Rodgers' of this league, and there is no doubt in my mind about that. The only hindrance on Jay right now (and this is the reason he will never be as good as Peyton Manning, who has been in a similar situation in Indianapolis for his entire career) is the coaching and organization he plays for. He will never have as effective and efficient combination of coaching and management behind him as they do in the aforementioned cities, and for that reason, Jay will have to make the best of his time in Chicago despite the fact his GM is Jerry Angelo and his coaching staff consists of (for now) Mike Martz and Lovie Smith. But the one thing that Jay Cutler has proven to me, and should have proven to the city of Chicago is that he is the Bears quarterback of the future, and that he is good enough to bear the weight of the entire team on his shoulders.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

The Champs Sports Bowl Email Exchange

The email started as a joke about Florida State being filled with Jenn Stergers and Notre Dame being filled with Adam Lamberts.  We had a good laugh and then Scott and I gave our score predictions for the Champs Sports Bowl.

Sef Sam Holy – FSU 30 Notre Dame 10
Scott Yasko – Notre Dame 38 FSU 24

And then the fun started…………..

Sef Sam Holy
If you think ND is scoring 38 points of Florida State, I’m not sure you’ve watched much college football this year.  Did Joe Montana get in a time machine and figure out a way to play in this game as a 25 year old?  C’Mon Man!

Scott Yasko
Relativity is a hell of a measuring stick in college football and you would be surprised as to how often it is right. I saw how Florida State played a mediocre Wake Forest team and I watched ND outplay (if not for 2 interceptions, they demolish) that same garbage. I think 38 points is not only doable, I wouldn't be surprised if they racked up 40+.

FSU = Biggest dissapointment in the nation this year.

I hear the makings of a wager….

Sef Sam Holy
Yeah, that game against Wake was 82 days ago, a lot different defense since then.  They haven’t given up more than 19 points in the 7 games since (3 of those games were 7 points or less).  I’m not saying they will shut ND out, but 38 point is pretty crazy to assume.  Especially to the Notre Dame offense led by…….well, who cares who plays QB, I’m sure it’s someone good. 

FSU has a better defense than Stanford and ND could only muster 7 points and a garbage time TD against them.  Good luck today.

No wager, I’m about as confident in FSU as you are in ND (we both don’t really want to put money on this).

And if FSU is the biggest disappointment in the nation, then ND would be a very close second.  ND had a BCS game handed to them and they couldn’t beat South Florida or an overrated Michigan team. 

I’ll bet on next year if you would like?  More wins?  Higher BCS rank at the end of the year?  You name it bud. 

Scott Yasko
I hate making excuses, but I am going to anyway. Notre Dame had 26 turnovers this year, a -13 ratio, and know how many were in the red zone? I don't either but I know that it was more than half. You mentioned the Stanford game, 2 to's in the red zone, one late in the third quarter when they were driving to tie the game. AND Notre Dame wasn't a top 5 team to start the season as FSU was. AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.

And the 7 games since Wake Forest?? Let's see who we can take seriously ON OFFENSE out of Duke, Maryland, NC State, BC, Miami, Virgina, Florida…..

Duke: 93rd in scoring
Maryland: 89th
NC State: 56th
BC: 112th
Miami: 72nd
Virginia: 88th
Florida: 71st

Tough schedule. (And see, I can get statistics to say what I want too)
And Kelly isnt going anywhere. They have the guys in place that are going to be one year better next year. ND has a top ten finish…. if not better.

Sef Sam Holy
“AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.”

I paused there because FSU was leading in the 4th quarter in 3 of their losses (and down 3 against Oklahoma, the number one ranked team in the country at the time).  It just sucked that their second best option at QB was a 5’11 165lb freshman.  Shame on Jimbo Fisher for that but all of their losses

And I’m not saying the teams they have played were amazing, but your point was that Notre Dame was going to score 38 points tonight, maybe 40, when ND has only scored more than 38 points 3 times this year and that was against Air Force, Navy, and Maryland. 

The team that closely resembles FSU that ND has played is MSU and ND won, so there you go.

FSU doesn’t really have a good win this year, they’ve been disappointing, there is no disputing that.  But in games Fisher/Stoops have lot of time to prepare for a team (Oklahoma this year, WV in 09 bowl game, and SC last year bowl game), the defense has looked really impressive and this bunch of players is the most talented they have had in the last 6-7 years. 

Honestly, because ND turns the ball over so much, I would expect the FSU defense to turn one of those into 7 points.  FSU has great special teams and I think that leads to some advantage.  If EJ Manuel and the FSU offense doesn’t turn the ball over more than 2 times, I think they win 24-13 or something like that.  If FSU doesn’t score on defense or special teams, and Manuel throws 2 picks and Freeman fumbles….ND wins 27-17. 
FSU and ND have had very similar seasons and for only one of them, it will end on a high note. 

$20 on FSU finishing ahead of Notre Dame next year? 

Scott Yasko
In every single game Notre Dame played this year, and I can 100% ASSURE YOU THAT THIS IS NOT MY BIAS, they looked like the more talented team. But they also looked young, inexperienced, and doe eyed. But if you look at what ND's offense does, spread style offense that looks to pass first but keeps you honest with quick draws and between the tackle dives, that style most simulates….. pause for effect…. a Clemson team that went up and down the field on the seminoles.

And yes I hear you that that was in the beginning of the year and their defense didn’t allow blah blah 7 games blah blah. THE POINT I WAS TRYING TO MAKE is that FSU has not played as good a offense as notre dame's in any of those final 7, none. And putting points aside, Brian Kelly is one of the best offensive minds in college football. Account for the amount of time HE has had to prepare. 38 to 40 is not far fetched.

38-24.
Michael Floyd has 3 touchdowns.
EJ Manuel throws 2 picks.
Jimbo Fischer crying on the sideline and coach stoops curlled up in a ball slapping himself in the head repeatedly wondering where the hell bobby bowden is.

Sef Sam Holy
100% ASSURE YOU THAT IS NOT MY BIAS, but the Clemson was the trap game after the Oklahoma game and the Tigers were coming off a HUGE win against Auburn, a game in which Clemson usually loses. 

We will see how the offensive genius that put up 15 against Pitt, 17 against USC, 16 against Boston College (YES, Boston College, at home), and 14 against Stanford does against a defense with 5 future NFL draft picks. 

34-13
EJ Manuel throws for 2 TD’s and runs for one more. 
Greg Reid takes a punt to the house and gets himself a pick. 
The FSU defense sacks whoever ND plays at QB 6 times. 
Brian Kelly is caught on camera saying the F word 4 times and gets fired after next year’s 6-6 season.

Scott Yasko
Yeah, I did say that off the cuff. And im in for a $20.

And…….Scene!

NBA Season Preview - The Western Conference

If you were looking for a NBA Western Conference preview, you’ve come to the wrong place.  Mustache Sports only provides playoff prediction sort of things.  Remember, I’ve got lots to do at work so I can’t write up detailed previews for every single team.  But what I can provide is an opinion on the West will shape up this season. 

Here’s how I think the top 8 seeds will look come playoff time. 

1.  Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have the best 1-2 punch with Durrant and Westbrook in the West and baring an injury to those two, the Sonics should win what looks to be a weaker Western Conference.  Anytime you get a chance to watch this team play, it’s worth your 2.5 hours.  James Harden and Serge Ibaka are two of my favorite players in the entire league.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are the Chicago Bulls of the West. 

2.  San Antonio Spurs
Despite everyone hollering about the Spurs being too old, they won the most regular season games in the West last year and held the number one seed.  I don’t sleep on Greg Popovich and what he does as a coach.  If he’s saying DeJuan Blair and James Anderson are good at basketball, then I’m going to believe him. 

3.  Los Angeles Clippers
Lob City baby!  What gets lost in all the CP3 talk is the fact that the Clippers have a really nice team.  Caron Butler and Chauncey “Mr Big Shot” Billups were excellent pieces that will fit in nicely with Griffin and CP3.  This team will get into some trouble if DeAndre Jordan gets into foul trouble but I could see them making a move by dealing Mo Williams for a backup big that can chew gum and walk at the same time come February. 

4.  Memphis Grizzles
Resigning Marc Gasol, a top 5 center, was big in keeping the momentum generated in last year’s playoff run.  A healthy Rudy Gay will make all the difference in this year’s campaign.  If OJ Mayo steps up and turns into the superstar he has the ability to become, you could possibly see this team upset OKC and represent the West in the Finals this year. 

5.  Denver Nuggets
This is my favorite Western Conference team to watch.  They score tons of points and have a lot of likeable players (Ty Lawson, Nene, Danilo Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo).  It wouldn’t surprise me if this team ended up finishing with the second best regular season record in the West.  It goes to show that you can trade a superstar and get pieces back that make you competitive.  I do think that the lack of a genuine superstar will be their demise come May. 

6.  Los Angeles Lakers
People are really down on the Lakers this year because of the Lamar Odom deal and Kobe turning 33 (in basketball years, he’s almost 50).  But it’s still the Lakers and they still have, in any matchup, 3 of the best possible 5 players on the floor with Gasol, Bryant, and Bynum.  I think they will go as far as Bynum takes them in the playoffs but this team isn’t deep enough to legitimately contend for a title. 

7.  Dallas Mavericks
It’s hard to envision an NBA Champ taking this kind of fall but after watching them get blown out on Christmas and the day after Christmas, I don’t know how you put them ahead of the teams already mentioned.  I know they still have Dirk, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd, but this team just looks like it’s missing something.  That something, Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and Caron Butler.  It’s only two games so this may be an overreaction but this is a shortened season and with the scheduling being the way it is, older teams are going to have a harder time. 

8.  Golden State Warriors
Mark Jackson wants his team to play defense and I honestly believe him.  I just don’t know if he has the personnel to establish that identity.  But the Warriors can put up some points and outrun the best of them.  I think they sneak into the playoffs this year ahead of Portland and…..wait for it…….the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Worst Teams to Watch
I wouldn’t pay money to go watch the Utah Jazz.  But other than that, the rest of the non-playoff teams, Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Portland Trailblazers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Phoenix Suns, all give me a reason to tune in.  I guess maybe the Suns, I could see them being pretty boring when Nash sits on the bench. 

Playoff Predictions
Thunder over Warriors in 6
Spurs over Mavericks in 5
Lakers over Clippers in 7
Grizzles over Nuggets in 7

Thunder over Grizzles in 6
Spurs over Lakers in 6

Thunder over Spurs in 6

See you tomorrow when I hand out some NBA awards and predict who wins the NBA Finals.  To quote Bart Scott, “Can’t Wait!”

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NBA Season Preview - The Eastern Conference

With the NBA back, and Mustache Sports taking notice, I think it’s time we provide you with a preview of how we feel this season will play out.  I’m not talking about giving you a team by team breakdown, but maybe just a playoff prediction sort of thing?  Will that work?  Good, thanks for understanding, I’m at work and although it is pretty slow this week, I still have stuff I need to get done. 

Here’s how I think the top 8 seeds will look come playoff time. 

1.  Miami Heat
Through two games, the Miami Heat look really, really good.  If they were playing the full 82 game season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a run at the 1996 Bulls 72 win record.  Norris Cole can ball (thank the Bulls for dealing him last draft day) and might be the answer at PG.  Shane Battier will help them in the locker room and in crunch time situations with his defense and ability to not be an offensive liability.  I’ll go on record right now and say that the Heat will win the NBA title this year.  I’m not at all trying to jinx them into a season ending Lebron/D Wade knee injury, I’m serious.  There, if you don’t like basketball, you can stop reading.

2.  Chicago Bulls
I’m super stoked to watch the Bulls when they get everything going.  Derrick Rose is great and the addition of Rip Hamilton is going to be HUGE the last 6 minutes of close games.  The Bulls have the best 10 man rotation in all of the NBA.  The only problem being, they will have to beat the Miami Heat in the playoffs and I don’t think D Rose has enough help to get that done.  I will say that IF Carlos Boozer plays like an All-Star and stays healthy, and IF Joakim Noah gets better and stays healthy, and IF Luol Deng turns into Tony Allen on defense, they have a chance of taking the Heat to 7 games and anything can happen in a game 7.  So yes, I guess I’m telling you there is a chance. 

3.  New York Knicks
After watching them get outscored by 27 points in a 17 minute stretch against the Celtics and still end up winning that game, I think they are the 3rd best team in the East.  Anytime you have a scorer like Carmelo “Slap and Run” Anthony, a versatile big like Amare Stoudemire, and defense in the middle with Tyson Chandler, you are going to win close games.  The Knicks look good right now, but I still think they are missing a point guard and although I do like Toney Douglas, I think the Eastern Conference Semi’s is as far as they go. 

4.  Indiana Pacers
As a Bulls fan, I got to watch them a lot late last year and then some early this season.  The Pacer roster is very nice and I think they become, along with the Knicks, the team that surprises people this season and take that leap into the “teams we follow closely in the East” category.  Danny Grainger needed some help last year and I think with the development of Paul George, Roy Hibbert looking like a top 5 Center, Tyler Hansbrough getting better, and the addition of David West, he got it.  Look for these guys to make a move at the deadline and possibly win a playoff series this year. 

5.  Boston Celtics
It’s crazy to look at a ranking of the East and see the Celtics getting ranked at 5.  Especially since they haven’t had Paul Pierce these first two games and almost won both of them (against teams ranked higher nonetheless).  But I think you will see KG and Pierce not play in 100 combined games this year and I just don’t see enough scoring on the team to make up for them being out.  The lockout schedule with its 7 games in 10 nights is going to hurt older teams and the C’s are no exception.  Brandon Bass looks like a great pickup, but Keyon Dooling, Marquis Daniels, Jermaine O’Neal, and Sasha Pavlovic will all play significant minutes this year and they are not very good at playing basketball. 

6.  Orlando Magic
This prediction is all predicated on Dwight Howard staying in Orlando for the entire season.  If he gets dealt, then I get a pass.  Deal?  Thanks. 

7.  Atlanta Hawks
Losing Jamal Crawford may not have been a horrible thing for the Hawks but they didn’t do anything to replace the scoring he provided.  I like Josh Smif (he looks like The Game if you’ve never heard that before, go ahead, google it), Joe Johnson is nice, I like Al Horford, and Jeff Teague is a fun player to watch, but they start Marvin Williams at the 3 and Tracy McGrady is in their 8 man rotation.  I think they will finish around .500 and lose to the Bulls in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs. 

8.  Philedelphia 76ers
Out of the bottom 10 teams in the East, Philly serves to have the most depth and most well rounded roster.  They have a lot of assets with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, Specer Hawes, Lou Williams, Evan Turner, and Jodie Meeks, but they need to turn those assets into a superstar and I just don’t see a realistic scenario out there right now where that happens.  They remind me a lot of those Kirk Heinrich, Ben Gordon Bulls teams.  Fun to watch and root for, shows signs of promise, but are stuck in NBA Purgatory…….no legitimate superstar, will always pick between 10-16 and have a lot of really nice role players. 

Worst Teams to Watch
In no particular order, the Bobcats, Bucks, Raptors, and Pistons are all really bad and really boring.  Conversely, the Cavs, Wizards, and Nets are really bad but for reasons I won’t go into, could be worth watching on a random Tuesday night. 

Playoff Predictions
Heat over 76ers in 4
Bulls over Hawks in 5
Knicks over Magic in 6
Celtics over Pacers in 7

Heat over Celtics in 6
Bulls over Knicks in 7

Heat over Bulls in 6

See you tomorrow when I do this EXACT same thing for the West!  I know, I’m excited too.  

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Group Fail

Four weeks ago, the Bears were 7-3 and well on the way to their second consecutive trip to the playoffs.  Four weeks later, after consecutive losses to Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, and the Seahawks, hope has faded, and the Bears have been exposed for exactly what they are.

The deciding factor in the of the Bears early season success was the combination of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.  For the first time in recent memory, the Bears were getting ridiculous levels of production from both their running back and quarterback at the same time. Their concurrent success served as the perfect band-aid for the multitude of inadquecies in Bears roster . The offense was putting up points, the offensive line was effective with Jay on the run, and Forte’s ability to both run and catch kept opponents off balance. With them gone, it has become painstakingly obvious how fragile this team truly is.

Make no mistake about it; this four game losing streak is much more than a team reeling from the loss of a star QB and RB. The fact that these games were all so winnable, despite our injuries, makes it even more obvious. How would these games played out if we hadn't wasted money on guys like Manemaluena, Chester Taylor, Roy Williams, Todd Collins and Brandon Merriweather? What would have happened if we could have picked up a backup QB based on talent, versus sticking with a bad QB because of a system? The truth is, the Bears losing these last four games is a culmination of a decade worth of bad hires, bad draft picks, bad contracts, and desperation moves on so many levels.

So whose fault is it? Just like with any awful situation, there is never one cause, never just one person to blame.

Bear with me for a moment, put coaching and player development aside, and just focus on the roster. Who messed it up? Jerry Angelo? Yes, but the situation we find ourselves in (again, roster only) runs much deeper than that.

Chicagoans, with our recent experiences in watching the Hawks, Cubs, and Sox, have become acutely aware how necessary it is for a GM to have an effective macro view; a core philosophy (specifically for drafting, trading, and free agent acquisitions) that focuses on the long term sustainability of a franchise. Without it, you have chaos. You have jobs with unclear roles. You have the Bears.

The GM of a football team is supposed to be the boss. No doubt there has to be some level of synergy with the coaching staff, but the bottom line is that the GM should make the roster and coaches should adapt to their roster.

Top GM’s like Green Bay's Ted Thompson, make decisions in the draft purely on talent. The Packers hired a leader that they trust, who in turn, has developed footballl philosophy that is the guiding factor in all decisions. His coaches and their subsequent schemes clearly are separate from his job of amassing talent. Whereas coaches and schemes change, talent is constant. The right talent can fit any scheme.

Can you imagine Ted Thompson trading one of his early round draft pick “hits” (like the Bears did with Greg Olsen) to appease his offensive coordinator? Not only did Jerry do just that, but he made matters worse by making a decision with long term ramifications in order to fit a scheme and offensive coordinator with a very uncertain future. This Bears move typifies the ineptitude we have come to expect. It is the antithesis of what you see from other successful organizations. The short term benefit was minimal or non-existent and the potential for regretting that decision in the long run, especially as Martz departs is huge.

If Ted Thompson fails to provide Mike McCarthy with players to effectively do his job, you would know exactly who is to blame. With the Bears dysfunctional system of "leadership", placing blame isn’t so simple.
To equate it to the Cubs, their future success or failure all rides with Theo. A big part of being a GM, regardless of the sport, is not only being willing to take on that responsibility, but to embrace that. This responsibility has escaped the Bears and is the main reason change has been so slow to come.

Ted Phillips deserves blame for hiring a GM that failed to take ownership of his position. Jerry is to blame not only for his bad personnel decisions, but also for  empowering the coaching staff and allowing them to affect far too many decisions with long term consequences. Not only that, but this involvement of Lovie and his staff, whether chosen or not, removes the convenience of them being able to simply blame Jerry. Their Input and schemes played integral roles in many of the awful decisions.

Despite the failures on all levels, it is unrealistic to think that Mike McCaskey is going to clean house from top to bottom. That said, what certainly must go is the codependency between the coaching staff and GM. Our current system of making major decisions fosters groupthink and muddies the water just enough to make sure no one is held accountable.

When an organization is structured so that nobody is to blame, everybody is to blame, and that certainly seems to be the case with the Bears.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Mustache Thinking With Sef Sam Holy

I’m really excited for the NBA to start and even more excited to see what Bulls roster we see on Christmas day against the Lakers.  My NBA enjoyment involves player movement discussion and hypothetical trade situations.  I’m not Bill Simmons on the ESPN Trade Machine, I just like to bounce my ideas around in discussions/emails/blog posts.  The NBA may not be the best sport to watch on TV, but it’s the best sport to talk about with other people that love the NBA. 

I don’t have the sports bandwidth to pay attention to everything sports related.  I have a wife that I love, and love to hang out with, so I don’t make her suffer and keep sports on my TV 24/7.  With that being said, I have to consciously not pay attention to certain sports.  One of those sports is college basketball.  Don’t hear me wrong, I love Championship Week and big Saturday games during January and February.  I love filling out a bracket and watching as much March Madness as I can, but I don’t watch college hoops at this point in the year.  However, I did DVR the Kentucky Indiana game from this past weekend and it was unreal.  I don’t have a breakdown of it for you, but it really got me excited for when I do start watching college basketball.  I really want to catch a game in Indiana one day, let’s put that on my sports bucket list.

I saw the ESPN 30 for 30 on The U last night and it made me hate Miami even more than I do now. 

If Florida State loses to Notre Dame on December 29th, I’m going to start thinking Jimbo Fisher is a Ron Zook/Dabo Sweeney type of college football coach.  He’s shown to be a great recruiter, but he doesn’t know how to win football games.  I really, really hope the Noles beat the Irish so I don’t have to think about something like this going into a year in which the Seminoles will bring back almost every one of their starters/players that contribute, and should be ranked in the top 10 to start the year.  There is no easier path to the BCS National Championship game than Florida State’s schedule next year and with the talent they will have on their roster, I expect Fisher to get there. 

Am I the only Bears fan that is rooting for them to lose out so that they get the best pick possible in the NFL Draft this April?  The only difference between finishing 9-7 and 7-9 is 8 draft spots.  Here’s my abbreviated “if I was the Bears GM” plan I have.  Finish 7-9, get the 12th pick in the draft.  Let Matt Forte walk, save the $40mil against the cap, and get the compensatory 2nd round pick.  Trade Devin Hester to whatever team is willing to give you a 3rd round pick for him.  With my 5 picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, I take Michael Floyd first and with the rest of those picks, draft an offensive lineman, a linebacker, a running back, and a cornerback.  With my final 4 picks, I get another offensive lineman, another linebacker, and a tight end.  There, I just fixed the Bears for the rest of the Jay Cutler era. 

I might get a Tim Tebow jersey with the Christmas money I get. 

Don’t bring up the White Sox this week, let’s talk about something else.  

Friday, December 9, 2011

Dwight Howard and the Bulls

It’s hard to believe that Christmas is in 15 days and I couldn’t be more jacked up.  I have two Christmas parties next week (one at my place, you are more than welcome to come) and one at work that I’m actually planning.  I like decorating Christmas trees, hanging lights at my place, Christmas shopping, opening presents, listening to Christmas music, getting fat, having days off from work, the snow outside, just really everything “commercial” about Christmas.  It’s a great time of the year and this year isn’t any different.  I’m a Christmas guy, not Clark Griswold Christmas guy, but pretty close.

This year Christmas is going to be extra special because I get to watch NBA basketball for the first time since Dallas beat Lebron/Wade/Bosh last June.  With the Chris Paul trade, and then subsequent no trade, I started my getting excited for the NBA.

I, like most Bulls fans, am really optimistic about this 2012 shortened season.  I’m stoked to get to watch Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and the rest of the Bulls play hard every night, win a lot of games, and be a scary team come playoff time.  There is no doubt that the Bulls have a legitimate shot at winning an NBA title this year. 

The only question I have about where the Bulls are right now is this, why didn’t they go after Dwight Howard and give up whatever Orlando wanted to get him? 

Looking at the Bulls roster, I see a better package for Dwight than what any other NBA team (at least any other team in which Howard would want to sign an extension with) could offer.  Noah, Gibson, Brewer, 2012 first round pick, and Charlotte’s top 9 protected number one in 2012 (or top 3 protected number one in 2013) for Dwight Howard. 

I know what you are thinking, that’s a lot to give up for one player, but that’s what the NBA is now.  For as much as I love everyone else on the Bulls, nobody but D Rose is a superstar and if you are going to win a title in this league, you have to have more than one superstar. 

I sort of contradicted myself in what I said earlier about the Bulls having a legitimate shot at winning a title and then saying they need another superstar to do it, but hear me out. 

The Bulls can win a title this year but a lot of things need to go their way in order for them to do so.  First off, D Rose needs to play like an MVP again, but more so, he needs to do it in the playoffs.  Carlos Boozer needs to play like an All-Star, but more so, play like one in the playoffs.  Luol Deng needs to shut down Paul Pierce/Lebron James and Joakim Noah needs to outplay whatever center he plays in any playoff matchup (but especially Miami) more than he did last year.  The Bulls are a talented team but if they win, it will be because everything went their way and they outplayed a more talented team.

By getting Howard, the Bulls may lose a lot of their depth, and maybe some of their identity, but they instantly become the best the team in the NBA when they send out their starting 5.  Howard, Boozer, Deng, Bogans, Rose…….yikes!  Everything doesn’t have to go your way in the playoffs (and during the regular season) to win a title with that group, you just need to have everyone healthy.  Without Howard, you still need everyone to be healthy, so that contingency is a wash. 

I’m not pointing out anything that most of you don’t already know (the Bulls with Howard are a better team) but I’m just throwing out the question as to why we didn’t hear more about them being a bigger player in this whole situation.

So here we are, Dwight Howard looks like he’s going to the Nets. 

The Bulls are still in need of a swingman that can play during the last 6 minutes of a game, not be a defensive liability and make big shots.  With the Heat signing Shane Battier, Phoenix inking Grant Hill, and Brandon Roy retiring, I’m not sure a whole lot is out there.  You just suggesting Jamal Crawford made me throw up in my mouth a little bit, no thanks on that guy.

My hope is that the Bulls package something together for OJ Mayo.  Last year Memphis agreed to a deal to send Mayo to Indiana for Greg Hibbard.  I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest the Bulls send Omar Asik (as long as Noah is on the Bulls, Asik is only playing 10-13 minutes a game as a backup center), Ronnie Brewer, and a 2012 first rounder for the former USC star.  I think he has superstar potential and while he’s available, the Bulls should take advantage. 

The NBA is about superstars and because the Bulls have one in D Rose, and play in Chicago (a big market players want to play), they need to not stand pat and aggressively try to take advantage of obtaining Rose some help when they have the assets to do it.  The 2012 NBA Championship is up for grabs and I’d like the Bulls to go out there and get it.    

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

What are the White Sox doing?

What are the White Sox doing? 

Kenny Williams can tell me he’s “rebuilding,” but I see through that and know he’s just trying to lower expectations and make things easier on first year skipper Robin Ventura. 

9 months after I have “All In” thrown at me, I’m seeing the White Sox turn into something I hate watching as a sports fan and that’s an organization that’s not moving towards winning a championship. 

His World Series Championship still holds water, Williams won a title in this new era of Boston/New York spending $160-$200 million on their teams.  However, in the years since, I’ve watched him develop an identity crisis.  Is he a shrewd general manager that sells a fifty cent pieces for three quarters?  Or is he the GM that overpays people to play for him? 

What is Kenny Williams doing?

I don’t mind dealing players you don’t intend to sign for younger players in order to replenish your farm system.  But there should be a plan in place to keep players that work out the way you wanted them to when you originally traded for them. 

Let’s take John Danks for example. 

When the Sox traded Brandon McCarthy for him back in December of 2006, they were getting back a left-handed starter that scouts said had ace potential.  After a rough rookie campaign in 2007 (as a 22 year old), Sox fans have watched him develop into, although not an ace, a legitimate number 2.  He’s going to be a pitcher that will throw 200 innings every season, give you a chance to win 18-22 of the games he starts, and can win a big game or two (see game 163 against the Twins in 2008).  Now granted, he didn’t turn into the ace some thought he might be, he’s still a valuable piece to a team that’s going to contend for a championship.  I don’t understand why the White Sox wouldn’t give him a 5 year deal at market value (see what CJ Wilson signs for this year).  I completely understand why teams like the Brewers, Royals, or Rays need to let guys like Danks go, or deal them for players that can contribute on the cheap, but I don’t understand why the White Sox have to.  Chicago isn’t a small market and the White Sox spend more than 80% of the teams in baseball.  I digress.

Using the logic that seems to be in place with John Danks (trade him because you aren’t willing to sign him when he hits the open market), what’s the goal in dealing him?  Getting back a player that will develop into a player you will have to trade when he becomes too good?  Is this just a cycle of trading good players that become expensive for players you hope to be good when they are cheap?   

That’s what leaves me asking the question, what are the White Sox doing?  Are the Sox a big market team that competes for the best in free agency and fills holes by trading prospects for productive pros?  Or are they a moneyball team that is always dealing overpaid players for prospects that will overperform and give them 3-4 years of solid service at a discount? 

As the general manager, Kenny Williams needs to pick a philosophy and, pardon the pun, go “all in” with it. 

I’m ok with the White Sox wanting to go young, shed some bad contracts, and deal players that they have no intention of resigning when they hit the open market for prospects that make their farm system better.  But if that’s the direction we are going, I would hope to see some more money invested in the draft and player development.  And I hope our 2nd best prospect isn’t Nestor Molina, a guy the Sox traded for a day ago.

I’m also ok with the Sox spending money on the right free agents and dealing prospects for proven major league talent in an attempt to win every year.  The AL Central won’t be bad forever, so while the Twins, Indians, and Royals are horrible, I’m all for trying to take advantage of that.  I’m all in for going “all in.” 

So now we are back to where we started, what are the White Sox doing? 

The trade of Sergio Santos (for more information on that, and anything else White Sox, check out my boy Jim Margalus on South Side Sox) started something that inevitably points to Kenny Williams trying to lower fan expectations of the 2012 White Sox.  John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Carlos Quentin are all being rumored to being moved and we are left to trust that Kenny Williams is doing what’s best for the Chicago White Sox. 

My hope is that KW’s plan of moving the White Sox towards winning another World Series title starts to make some more sense to me so I can stop asking, “what are the White Sox doing?” 

I Uh, I Did Not KNOW That - Part 2

With 4 weeks left to play in the 2012 NFL season, and the Bears falling apart, I’m starting to not care about football.  But what I do love about all sports, and football in particular, is statistics, especially statistics that aren’t discussed everywhere you look.  I wrote about this after week 7 (link after the jump) but here you go, another installment of, “I uh, I did not KNOW that.”

If anything, this information, if memorized, will make you seem interesting to talk to for about 5 minutes.


Quarterbacks
Eli Manning has more passing yards (3,705) than anyone not named Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees.
Tavaris Jackson has more passing yards (2,255) than Michael Vick (2,193).
Cam Newton leads the league in rushing TD’s with 13.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has more passing TD’s (20) than Philip Rivers , Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, and Michael Vick.
Tom Brady has thrown more interceptions (10) than Curtis Painter

Runningbacks
Maurice Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing with 1,137 yards.
Matt Forte has more rushing yards (997) than Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and Adrian Peterson.
Beanie Wells has more rushing yards (916) than Chris Johnson.
LeSean McCoy has more rushing TD’s (12) than Maurice Jones-Drew and Frank Gore, combined.
Darren Sproles has more receiving yards (522) than Reggie Bush and Chris Johnson, combined.

Wide Receivers
Victor Cruz has more receiving yards (1,076) than Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Hakeem Nicks.
Johnny Knox has more receiving yards (675) than Stevie Johnson.
Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are tied for second in the NFL with 9 TD’s and they play on the same team.
Wes Welker has 24 more catches (93) than any other WR in the NFL. 

Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham has more receiving yards (1,046) than Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Hakeem Nicks.
Rob Gronkowski has more TD catches (13) than Calvin Johnson.
Fred Davis has more receiving yards (796) than Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Jermichael Finley, and Antonio Gates.

Kickers
Phil Dawson has made 7 field goals of 50+ yards. 
Mason Crosby has kicked more extra points than Phil Dawson, Josh Brown, and Adam Vinatieri combined.

Defense
The 49ers defense has only allowed 159 points this season (13.25 ppg).
The Colts defense has allowed 340 points this season (28.33 ppg). 
The Ravens have 41 sacks this season. 
The Bills have 17 sacks this season.
The Packers have intercepted 23 passes this year.
The Colts have intercepted 5 passes this year. 

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Happy Birthday Wayne!

It's Wayne Gretzky's 50th birthday this week and my gift to him is to, once and for all, prove that he is the best athlete to ever play any sport. It's actually quite easy. I could do it with just the next sentence.

If Wayne Gretzky never scored a goal, he'd still be the NHL's all-time leading points scorer.

Boom! Done.

Gretzky had 1,963 assists in his career.

1.Wayne Gretzky—1,963 (assists only)
2.Mark Messier—1,887 (goals + assists)
3.Gordie Howe—1,850 (goals + assists)
If that isn't amazing enough, Wayne Gretzky scored the most goals of all-time, too—894!

Case closed. Game over. So, that makes it:

•Wayne Gretzky—2,857 (goals + assists)
A whopping 970 more points than anyone ever! Absolute bananas. Just the extra 970 points is more than the career totals of:

•Maurice Richard—965 (goals + assists) Hall of Fame
•Chris Chelios—948 (goals + assists) And he played like 40 seasons.
•Bobby Orr—915 (goals + assists) Hall of Fame

If that wasn't enough:

•Wayne Gretzky is the only player ever to score 200 points in a season—and he did it four times.
•He won the MVP (Hart Memorial Trophy) eight years in a row. Nine times total.
•His teams won the Stanley Cup four times.
•His jersey number, 99, is retired by every single team in the NHL.
•His list of achievements go on and on and on...
•No steroids. No scandals. Just the most incredible athlete ever.

Picks Year to Date

NFL
C-Murder 35-28-5
Bert Kolson 40-35-6
Sef Sam Holy 36-33-3
Monster 27-37-4

College
Scott 26-17
Sef Sam Holy 25-21
Blake Witzman 7-10

Friday, November 18, 2011

Tim Tebow and Our Weekend Picks

I don’t know if I would bet that Tim Tebow’s success will sustain itself over the course of an NFL career but it’s been really fun to watch, and root for, this year.  I’m hoping the Broncos end up winning the Super Bowl so haters like Trent Dilfer, the worst person in the world on ESPN, eats a big bowl of crow and maybe gets fired for being so consistently wrong about everything he predicts. 

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that next offseason, Tebow works on his passing ability.  Let him start completing just 50% of his passes and he might just turn out to be legit. 

Here’s some fun information:

Tim Tebow’s career numbers
5-3 (8 starts)
12TD 4INT
1,363 yards passing
615 yards rushing
9 rushing TD’s

Last night he drove 95 yards on a Jets defense, that had only allowed 2 first downs through 54 minutes, in 5 minutes to lead the Broncos to a 17-13 win that was capped off by a 20 yard TD run against an all-out blitz.  The legend continues to grow and I continue to be interested. 

Week 11 NFL Picks

Bengals +7 at Ravens
Sef Sam Holy – Ravens
Bert Kolson – Bengals
Monster - Ravens

Bills +1 at Dolphins
Sef Sam Holy – Bills
Bert Kolson – Bills
Monster - Dolphins

Jaguars (Pk) at Browns
Sef Sam Holy – Jags
Bert Kolson – Jags
Monster - Jags

Panthers +7 at Lions
Sef Sam Holy – Lions
Bert Kolson – Panthers
Monster - Lions

Raiders -1 at Vikings
Sef Sam Holy – Raiders
Bert Kolson – Raiders
Monster - Raiders

Bucs +14.5 at Packers
Sef Sam Holy – Packers
Bert Kolson – Bucs
Monster - Packers

Cowboys -8 at Redskins
Sef Sam Holy – Cowboys
Bert Kolson – Cowboys
Monster - Cowboys

Cardinals +10 at 49ers
Sef Sam Holy – 49ers
Bert Kolson – Cardinals
Monster – 49ers

Seahawks +3 at Rams
Sef Sam Holy – Rams
Bert Kolson – Rams
Monster - Rams

Chargers +4 at Bears
Sef Sam Holy – Chargers
Bert Kolson – Bears
Monster - Bears

Eagles +4 at Giants
Sef Sam Holy – Giants
Bert Kolson – Eagles
Monster - Giants

Chiefs +15 at Pats
Sef Sam Holy – Chiefs
Bert Kolson – Chiefs
Monster – Pats

Year to Date
C-Murder – 30-22-4
Bert Kolson – 36-28-5
Sef Sam Holy – 33-25-2
Monster – 22-32-3

Week 12 College Picks

16 Nebraska +3.5 at 18 Michigan
Sef Sam Holy – Nebraska
Blake Witzman – Nebraska
Scott - Nebraska

21 Penn State +7 at Ohio State
Sef Sam Holy – Penn State
Blake Witzman – Penn State
Scott – Penn State

Miami -1 at South Florida
Sef Sam Holy – South Florida
Blake Witzman – Miami
Scott – Miami

USC +15 at 4 Oregon
Sef Sam Holy – Oregon
Blake Witzman – Oregon
Scott - USC

5 Oklahoma -16 at 22 Baylor
Sef Sam Holy – Baylor
Blake Witzman – Oklahoma
Scott - Baylor

Year to Date
Scott – 23-15
Sef Sam Holy – 23-18
Blake Witzman – 5-7