College Football - Week One Picks

Stick with us and your Sunday mornings will never feel like this

I rarely ever gamble on anything.  I'll play poker here and there, or bet a buddy $5 on a game we are watching together, but I don't have a bookie or an online gambling account.  I do feel like putting myself out there by providing my picks against the spread is risk enough.  The upside, you think I know what I'm doing.  The downside, you think I'm an idiot.  I'll take being an idiot in your eyes over having to tell my wife I lost a paycheck because a 20 year old kid threw 3 interceptions.  

Record to date

Sef Sam Holy - 2-1

Ryan McMahon - 1-2

#24 Boise State (+7) at #13 Michigan State

Ryan:  I like Boise to cover in a close game.  Close game throughout but MSU just comes out ahead.  Boise has lost 7 starters and has a inexperienced QB starting for the 1st time on the road, you know they can score points but MSU's crazy good D ends (specifically Gholston) will put the untested Southwick on his back several times. 

Sef Sam Holy:  I'll take MSU to not only beat a depleted Boise team, but make a statement that they are force to be reckon with this season.  Losing Kirk Cousins will undoubtedly hurt their offense, but Andrew Maxwell will play well enough with a sick defense and home crowd behind him tonight to win by 10 points. 

Notre Dame (-16.5) vs Navy in Ireland

Ryan:   ND covers.  ND beat Navy 56-14 last year, I predict much of the same.  Total homer pick and couldn't care less. 

Sef Sam Holy:  For the first time all year, I'll agree with you.  I hate Notre Dame and nothing would start off my Saturday better than to see Brian Kelly crying on the sidelines in another country as the Irish drop a game they should win, but I think they are way too much for a Navy team I won't care about enough to watch again the rest of the year.  

#14 Clemson (-3.5) vs Auburn in Atlanta

Ryan:  The line on this game feels so spot-on its unbelievable.  I think Auburn wins in the first upset of the year.  If this game is played in late October Auburn wins by double digits, they are loaded with talent even if its young and I say they finish the year in the top 20. 

Sef Sam Holy:  I hate Clemson almost as much as I hate Notre Dame.  Without Sammy Watkins, Tajh Boyd may struggle to get going but I think they end up winning this game.  Tons of people are sleeping on a very talented Clemson team and for good reason, see last year's Orange Bowl, but they won the ACC last year, and return almost everybody.  Will they cover the 3.5?  Sure but I'm about as confident in that as I am in Lee Corso making sense on Game Day Saturday morning.   

Hawaii (-42) at #1 USC 

Reason enough to watch USC

Ryan:  Really!?!? 42 point spread week 1!?!? Thats ridiculous, obviously SC wins huge but not that huge.  Kiffin (insert bad word to describe a person) gets his starters out after 3 quarters and with Norm Chow taking over at Hawaii i think they can at least score some points.  USC does have the most talent 1-22 in my opinion, but who cares because they're USC and if you have ever walked on that campus its like a model shoot every step.  You would have to be some sort of super moron to not want to go there.  Hawaii covers

Sef Sam Holy:  This type of line is why I don't gamble.  I'd rather watch this game to enjoy Gus Johnson yelling than worry about what happens in the 4th quarter of what will be a blowout.  Give me USC just to disagree with a guy that lived in Vegas and really gambles on football.  

#8 Michigan (+14) vs #2 Alabama in Dallas

Ryan:  Michigan to cover.  Alabama pounds the ball and plays boring old Saban ball.  They win but it will probably be closer to a 10 point victory.  Early in the year like this Shoelace's talent alone keeps the game close against a defense that lost 6 players to in the draft alone.  Great first week game, really pumped for this one  and even though as a ND fan i despise Big Blue i wouldn't mind seeing an upset.  

Sef Sam Holy:  Michigan can win this game outright if they don't turn the ball over, Denard makes 3 big plays (40+ yards), and their defense scores them a turnover that gives their offense the ball inside the red zone.  If there is ever a time to play a defense that is starting 7 new players, it's the first game of the season.  We saw last night in the Vandy/SC game that missed tackles are a part of early season college football and those missed tackles can turn into 78 yard TD passes.  I do think Michigan comes into this season slightly overrated but they find a way to make this a game worth watching when the 4th quarter rolls around and cover the 14 points.  

Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #16 Virginia Tech

Ryan:  It sucks to play in Blacksburg and GT knows it.  GT gets Beamered all Monday night.  VT has been slow to start the last few years but that trend ends this year, 9 defensive starters return to one of the nations already best units.  They will be tested against that stupid GT triple option offense, the only way to stop that though is with speed on D and VT has that in spades.

Believe all you want, it's still Kentucky football

Sef Sam Holy:  I'm going to go the other way on this and say this game mimics what you see happen quite a bit when a vastly more talented team plays someone they are supposed to beat in an early season conference game.  Yes, Blacksburg will be going nuts and the Yellow Jackets will struggle, but expect a low scoring affair that's closer than the rosters will indicate when the NFL Draft rolls around.  Georgia Tech covers but only because I think Va Tech wins by 7.  

I hope you all enjoy a wonderful 3 day weekend that's filled with good friends, college football, and BBQ.  Soak it in baby, watch the pregame shows, put on your favorite jersey, and let hope spring eternal.  There is still a chance your team runs the table and plays in Miami this January.  Come Tuesday, work is back and your team could be looking at an 0-1 start.  

College Kickoff With Ryan McMahon

Rule one in college football, your team is always number one

I’ve had one of the worst weeks of my adult life this week.  I won’t share any details because no one reads a sports blog to hear about the personal life of the guy writing the entry, but let’s just say it’s making the college football kick off tonight extra nice. 

I got an email from a buddy of mine that moved to Colorado and now has to watch and talk college football with people that would rather spend their Saturdays in the fall hiking and being outside rather than sitting on their couch watching the best sport ever all day long.  Needless to say, I feel bad for him, but he does like Notre Dame so it’s give and take. 

Anyway, let’s hear from Ryan McMahon. 

Ryan:  I haven’t even thought about Saturday’s lines, I can barely contain my excitement for tonight, let alone Saturday.  And I have 2 Fantasy Football drafts tonight, one will take place at hooters and all my GF wants is some fried pickles to-go.  Basically these next 5 days are going to be fantastic.

Sef Sam Holy:  My next 60 hours - Fantasy football draft at work at 330, home for tape delayed Vandy SC, sleep, work, MSU Boise State, sleep, cook steaks for friends at 730, have 4 friends over for Notre Dame Navy, then on the couch for laying down and watching college football until San Diego State and Washington get done.  Yeah, I'm stoked.  College football has officially become my favorite sport and this first weekend is better, in my opinion, than the first weekend of March Madness.

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vandy

Ryan:  I’ll take the Gamecocks to cover tonight even though they always have trouble at Vandy.

Sef Sam Holy: I think SC will cover the 6.5 tonight but it's a great line.  I would be willing to bet Vandy has a halftime lead.  The thing that makes me nervous about taking SC with that cover is that Steve Spurrier now plays boring, SEC football.  They have a ridiculous defense and Lattimore is going to run the sheezy out of the ball.  I think Vandy is up at half like 10-7, SC ties it on their first drive in the 3rd, and then scores a TD early in the 4^th.  But ya know what, let's start off the year disagreeing, it's more fun, give me Vandy. 

Ryan: Lattimore gets the ball all day but the Old Ball Coach will chuck it a few more times this year with a less alcoholic QB.  If Vandy ever does have the lead it will be 3-0 and wont last long, but im glad you disagree because this is football dammit, and agreements are for badminton.

Minnesota (-8.5) at UNLV

Ryan:  UNLV to cover although that is a bet with my heart.  Minnesota will be terrible as always

Sef Sam Holy:  I'll go Big Ten over UNLV any day of the week.  After the 100 Day Burpee Challenge, I might be big enough to suit up and play for the Runnin Rebels.  If Duke and Indiana can't be good at football, neither can UNLV.  Disagree again, give me the Gophers. 

Ryan: You can make all the Rebs jokes you want but they will happily lose by a touchdown and cover just the same.  And UNLV can be good at football, two words: Randell Frickin Cunningham!!! You know how many burpees Randell did at UNLV? The answer: all of them.

Washington State (+12.5) at BYU

Ryan:  WSU to cover Mike Leach turns the program around starting tonight.

Sef Sam Holy:  Giving Mike Leach 12.5 points is nuts but it's game one, of year one, so it's a game I would definitely stay away from if I was betting my own money.  BYU won 10 games last year and although they were all against teams not in the top 25, 10 wins is still 10 wins.  They don't score a ton (30.1 ppg in 2011) so the almost two touchdown win could be difficult, but I'll take BYU just because I've seen them be decent and I want them to be the best independent team in college football (my passive aggressive jab at ND). 

Ryan:  Mike Leach.  Mike Leach.  Mike Leach. Dont care that its his first game and his talent isn't what you would call "talent".  WSU finds a way to score and keep it close enough to cover those beautiful 12 1/2pts.

The Champs Sports Bowl Email Exchange

The email started as a joke about Florida State being filled with Jenn Stergers and Notre Dame being filled with Adam Lamberts.  We had a good laugh and then Scott and I gave our score predictions for the Champs Sports Bowl.

Sef Sam Holy – FSU 30 Notre Dame 10

Scott Yasko – Notre Dame 38 FSU 24

And then the fun started…………..

Sef Sam Holy

If you think ND is scoring 38 points of Florida State, I’m not sure you’ve watched much college football this year.  Did Joe Montana get in a time machine and figure out a way to play in this game as a 25 year old?  C’Mon Man!

Scott Yasko

Relativity is a hell of a measuring stick in college football and you would be surprised as to how often it is right. I saw how Florida State played a mediocre Wake Forest team and I watched ND outplay (if not for 2 interceptions, they demolish) that same garbage. I think 38 points is not only doable, I wouldn't be surprised if they racked up 40+.

FSU = Biggest dissapointment in the nation this year.

I hear the makings of a wager….

Sef Sam Holy

Yeah, that game against Wake was 82 days ago, a lot different defense since then.  They haven’t given up more than 19 points in the 7 games since (3 of those games were 7 points or less).  I’m not saying they will shut ND out, but 38 point is pretty crazy to assume.  Especially to the Notre Dame offense led by…….well, who cares who plays QB, I’m sure it’s someone good. 

FSU has a better defense than Stanford and ND could only muster 7 points and a garbage time TD against them.  Good luck today.

No wager, I’m about as confident in FSU as you are in ND (we both don’t really want to put money on this).

And if FSU is the biggest disappointment in the nation, then ND would be a very close second.  ND had a BCS game handed to them and they couldn’t beat South Florida or an overrated Michigan team. 

I’ll bet on next year if you would like?  More wins?  Higher BCS rank at the end of the year?  You name it bud. 

Scott Yasko

I hate making excuses, but I am going to anyway. Notre Dame had 26 turnovers this year, a -13 ratio, and know how many were in the red zone? I don't either but I know that it was more than half. You mentioned the Stanford game, 2 to's in the red zone, one late in the third quarter when they were driving to tie the game. AND Notre Dame wasn't a top 5 team to start the season as FSU was. AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.

And the 7 games since Wake Forest?? Let's see who we can take seriously ON OFFENSE out of Duke, Maryland, NC State, BC, Miami, Virgina, Florida…..

Duke: 93rd in scoring

Maryland: 89th

NC State: 56th

BC: 112th

Miami: 72nd

Virginia: 88th

Florida: 71st

Tough schedule. (And see, I can get statistics to say what I want too)

And Kelly isnt going anywhere. They have the guys in place that are going to be one year better next year. ND has a top ten finish…. if not better.

Sef Sam Holy

“AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.”

I paused there because FSU was leading in the 4^th quarter in 3 of their losses (and down 3 against Oklahoma, the number one ranked team in the country at the time).  It just sucked that their second best option at QB was a 5’11 165lb freshman.  Shame on Jimbo Fisher for that but all of their losses

And I’m not saying the teams they have played were amazing, but your point was that Notre Dame was going to score 38 points tonight, maybe 40, when ND has only scored more than 38 points 3 times this year and that was against Air Force, Navy, and Maryland. 

The team that closely resembles FSU that ND has played is MSU and ND won, so there you go.

FSU doesn’t really have a good win this year, they’ve been disappointing, there is no disputing that.  But in games Fisher/Stoops have lot of time to prepare for a team (Oklahoma this year, WV in 09 bowl game, and SC last year bowl game), the defense has looked really impressive and this bunch of players is the most talented they have had in the last 6-7 years. 

Honestly, because ND turns the ball over so much, I would expect the FSU defense to turn one of those into 7 points.  FSU has great special teams and I think that leads to some advantage.  If EJ Manuel and the FSU offense doesn’t turn the ball over more than 2 times, I think they win 24-13 or something like that.  If FSU doesn’t score on defense or special teams, and Manuel throws 2 picks and Freeman fumbles….ND wins 27-17. 

FSU and ND have had very similar seasons and for only one of them, it will end on a high note. 

$20 on FSU finishing ahead of Notre Dame next year? 

Scott Yasko

In every single game Notre Dame played this year, and I can 100% ASSURE YOU THAT THIS IS NOT MY BIAS, they looked like the more talented team. But they also looked young, inexperienced, and doe eyed. But if you look at what ND's offense does, spread style offense that looks to pass first but keeps you honest with quick draws and between the tackle dives, that style most simulates….. pause for effect…. a Clemson team that went up and down the field on the seminoles.

And yes I hear you that that was in the beginning of the year and their defense didn’t allow blah blah 7 games blah blah. THE POINT I WAS TRYING TO MAKE is that FSU has not played as good a offense as notre dame's in any of those final 7, none. And putting points aside, Brian Kelly is one of the best offensive minds in college football. Account for the amount of time HE has had to prepare. 38 to 40 is not far fetched.

38-24.

Michael Floyd has 3 touchdowns.

EJ Manuel throws 2 picks.

Jimbo Fischer crying on the sideline and coach stoops curlled up in a ball slapping himself in the head repeatedly wondering where the hell bobby bowden is.

Sef Sam Holy

100% ASSURE YOU THAT IS NOT MY BIAS, but the Clemson was the trap game after the Oklahoma game and the Tigers were coming off a HUGE win against Auburn, a game in which Clemson usually loses. 

We will see how the offensive genius that put up 15 against Pitt, 17 against USC, 16 against Boston College (YES, Boston College, at home), and 14 against Stanford does against a defense with 5 future NFL draft picks. 

34-13

EJ Manuel throws for 2 TD’s and runs for one more. 

Greg Reid takes a punt to the house and gets himself a pick. 

The FSU defense sacks whoever ND plays at QB 6 times. 

Brian Kelly is caught on camera saying the F word 4 times and gets fired after next year’s 6-6 season.

Scott Yasko

Yeah, I did say that off the cuff. And im in for a $20.

And…….Scene!

Happy Birthday Wayne!

It's Wayne Gretzky's 50th birthday this week and my gift to him is to, once and for all, prove that he is the best athlete to ever play any sport. It's actually quite easy. I could do it with just the next sentence.

If Wayne Gretzky never scored a goal, he'd still be the NHL's all-time leading points scorer.

Boom! Done.

Gretzky had 1,963 assists in his career.

1.Wayne Gretzky—1,963 (assists only)

2.Mark Messier—1,887 (goals + assists)

3.Gordie Howe—1,850 (goals + assists)

If that isn't amazing enough, Wayne Gretzky scored the most goals of all-time, too—894!

Case closed. Game over. So, that makes it:

•Wayne Gretzky—2,857 (goals + assists)

A whopping 970 more points than anyone ever! Absolute bananas. Just the extra 970 points is more than the career totals of:

•Maurice Richard—965 (goals + assists) Hall of Fame

•Chris Chelios—948 (goals + assists) And he played like 40 seasons.

•Bobby Orr—915 (goals + assists) Hall of Fame

If that wasn't enough:

•Wayne Gretzky is the only player ever to score 200 points in a season—and he did it four times.

•He won the MVP (Hart Memorial Trophy) eight years in a row. Nine times total.

•His teams won the Stanley Cup four times.

•His jersey number, 99, is retired by every single team in the NHL.

•His list of achievements go on and on and on...

•No steroids. No scandals. Just the most incredible athlete ever.

Picks Year to Date

NFL

C-Murder 35-28-5

Bert Kolson 40-35-6

Sef Sam Holy 36-33-3

Monster 27-37-4

College

Scott 26-17

Sef Sam Holy 25-21

Blake Witzman 7-10

Tim Tebow and Our Weekend Picks

I don’t know if I would bet that Tim Tebow’s success will sustain itself over the course of an NFL career but it’s been really fun to watch, and root for, this year.  I’m hoping the Broncos end up winning the Super Bowl so haters like Trent Dilfer, the worst person in the world on ESPN, eats a big bowl of crow and maybe gets fired for being so consistently wrong about everything he predicts. 

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that next offseason, Tebow works on his passing ability.  Let him start completing just 50% of his passes and he might just turn out to be legit. 

Here’s some fun information:

Tim Tebow’s career numbers

5-3 (8 starts)

12TD 4INT

1,363 yards passing

615 yards rushing

9 rushing TD’s

Last night he drove 95 yards on a Jets defense, that had only allowed 2 first downs through 54 minutes, in 5 minutes to lead the Broncos to a 17-13 win that was capped off by a 20 yard TD run against an all-out blitz.  The legend continues to grow and I continue to be interested. 

Week 11 NFL Picks

Bengals +7 at Ravens

Sef Sam Holy – Ravens

Bert Kolson – Bengals

Monster - Ravens

Bills +1 at Dolphins

Sef Sam Holy – Bills

Bert Kolson – Bills

Monster - Dolphins

Jaguars (Pk) at Browns

Sef Sam Holy – Jags

Bert Kolson – Jags

Monster - Jags

Panthers +7 at Lions

Sef Sam Holy – Lions

Bert Kolson – Panthers

Monster - Lions

Raiders -1 at Vikings

Sef Sam Holy – Raiders

Bert Kolson – Raiders

Monster - Raiders

Bucs +14.5 at Packers

Sef Sam Holy – Packers

Bert Kolson – Bucs

Monster - Packers

Cowboys -8 at Redskins

Sef Sam Holy – Cowboys

Bert Kolson – Cowboys

Monster - Cowboys

Cardinals +10 at 49ers

Sef Sam Holy – 49ers

Bert Kolson – Cardinals

Monster – 49ers

Seahawks +3 at Rams

Sef Sam Holy – Rams

Bert Kolson – Rams

Monster - Rams

Chargers +4 at Bears

Sef Sam Holy – Chargers

Bert Kolson – Bears

Monster - Bears

Eagles +4 at Giants

Sef Sam Holy – Giants

Bert Kolson – Eagles

Monster - Giants

Chiefs +15 at Pats

Sef Sam Holy – Chiefs

Bert Kolson – Chiefs

Monster – Pats

Year to Date

C-Murder – 30-22-4

Bert Kolson – 36-28-5

Sef Sam Holy – 33-25-2

Monster – 22-32-3

Week 12 College Picks

16 Nebraska +3.5 at 18 Michigan

Sef Sam Holy – Nebraska

Blake Witzman – Nebraska

Scott - Nebraska

21 Penn State +7 at Ohio State

Sef Sam Holy – Penn State

Blake Witzman – Penn State

Scott – Penn State

Miami -1 at South Florida

Sef Sam Holy – South Florida

Blake Witzman – Miami

Scott – Miami

USC +15 at 4 Oregon

Sef Sam Holy – Oregon

Blake Witzman – Oregon

Scott - USC

5 Oklahoma -16 at 22 Baylor

Sef Sam Holy – Baylor

Blake Witzman – Oklahoma

Scott - Baylor

Year to Date

Scott – 23-15

Sef Sam Holy – 23-18

Blake Witzman – 5-7

Week 11 College Football Picks and Ruining Your Friday

I was honestly going to write something about how I’m sick of hearing about this Penn State story yesterday but C-Murder told me to read the Grand Jury report before I posted what I had to say.  I read the Grand Jury report and will now not post what I was going to say.  It really is the sickest thing I’ve ever read and feel like I’m going to be scared for life because of it.  It’s all I’ve thought about all day and now I can see why everyone is talking about it everywhere you look.  There are going to be more disgusting details that will surface about this, we will have something for you soon on what we think of this awful, awful situation. 

If you want to read it yourself, google “Jerry Sandusky Grand Jury” and the Washington Post will have something for you with either the first or second link.  Sorry to ruin your Friday, here are me and Blake’s Week 11 College Football Picks. 

10 Virginia Tech -1.5 at 21 Georgia Tech*

Sef Sam Holy – Va Tech

Blake Witzman – Va Tech

19 Nebraska -3.5 at 12 Penn State

Sef Sam Holy – Nebraska

Blake Witzman - Nebraska

20 Auburn +13 at 15 Georgia

Sef Sam Holy – Georgia

Blake Witzman - Georgia

24 Michigan -1 at Illinois

Sef Sam Holy – Michigan

Blake Witzman - Illinois

Miami +9 at Florida State

Sef Sam Holy – FSU

Blake Witzman - FSU

7 Oregon +3.5 at 4 Stanford

Sef Sam Holy – Oregon

Blake Witzman – Stanford

*Swear on my momma we picked this game yesterday

Year to Date

Scott – 23-15

Sef Sam Holy – 19-16

Blake Witzman – 3-3

And We're Back!

After watching 7 weeks of NFL football, it’s getting difficult to provide you, the reader, with any sort of analysis that you don’t already know.  The Packers are awesome, the Dolphins/Colts/Rams may not win this year, the Lions and Bills are fun stories but both will probably somehow miss out on the playoffs, and we’ve all had a good time watching the Eagles start out 2-4. 

I’m a numbers fella, so here are some numbers that might make you go, “I uh, I did not KNOW that.” 

Mustache Sports gots backs

Maurice Jones-Drew is second in the league in rushing with 677 yards (96.7 yards per game)

Ben Tate is 9^th in the league in rushing with 466 yards (66.6 yards per game)

Beanie Wells has 6 rushing TD’s tied for 3^rd in the NFL

Matt Forte has 419 yards receiving, most among RB’s.  That’s one less yard than LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, and Chris Johnson combined.

Far out with the Wide Out

Calvin Johnson has 10 TD’s already and is on pace to score 23 TD’s for the season

Mike Wallace has 5 TD’s that are 40 yards or longer

Jabar Gaffney has 38 more receiving yards than Miles Austin

Preston Parker has more receiving TD’s (2) than his Bucs teammate Mike Williams (1)

Matt Forte has more receiving yards than Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes

How are the QB’s doing?

Ben Rothlisberger has more passing yards than Matthew Stafford

Josh Freeman has more passing yards than Philip Rivers

Michael Vick has more rushing yards (378) than Rashard Mendenhall (374)

Cam Newton has more rushing TD’s (7) than every RB in the NFL other than Adrian Peterson

Rex Grossman, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers are tied for second worst in the NFL with 9 INT’s.

Josh Freeman has thrown 10 INT’s already this year after only throwing 6 all of last year.

Kevin Kolb has throw less interceptions (7) than Tom Brady and Drew Brees (8)

We talkin bout Tight Ends!

Jimmy Graham has 225 more receiving yards than the next best TE, Jason Witten (674 to 449)

Scott Chandler has 4 TD’s this year but does not yet have 100 receiving yards

Fred Davis has the same amount of receiving yards (423) as Vincent Jackson

Did someone say kickers?

Dan Bailey has 16 field goals made in 6 games

Josh Brown has 5 PAT field goals made in 6 games]

D-Fence

The Washington Redskins defense has 17 more sacks than the Buffalo Bills (21 to 4)

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yet to recover an opponent fumble

The Baltimore Ravens lead the league with 9 fumbles recovered

The Baltimore Ravens defense has only allowed 77 points through 6 games (12.8 ppg)

The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed 207 points through 7 games (29.6 ppg)

Update on our Football Picking

And I’m with ya, we’ve been slacking in posting our picks for the weekly action the past couple of weeks, but NO MORE!  The fellas at Mustache Sports have been sending them in and I have the email proof to prove it.  So, without further ado, here’s our Picks Standings Year-to-Date.

College Football Picks

Scott Yasko – 23-15

Sef Sam Holy – 19-16

Blake Witzman – 3-3

NFL Picks

C-Murder – 30-22-4

Bert Kolson – 36-28-5

Sef Sam Holy – 33-25-2

Monster – 22-32-3

Week 6/5 in Review - How Did We Do?

Every week at Mustache Sports, we take a look at the previous weekend to see how we did in giving you our prognostications.

Before I show you how we did against the spread last week, I have a couple things to tell you.

Last week, I bought a domain name for Mustache Sports.  We are working with some people who know how to make domain names into websites that people like to read.  It’s probably going to take a while but be on the lookout for updates and information on when we are going to have a website release party somewhere at a sports bar in Chicago.  I have a buddy (Johnny Bravado) that runs a clothing company and he’s going to take our website and transform it into shirts and hats we can pass out at this party.   

Speaking of t-shirts, congrats to Dave Martinez this week as he edged out our other participant, Frank Lombardo, in the picking NFL games against the spread for a free, yet to be designed Mustache Sports t-shirt.  As soon as it’s ready Dave, I got you.  But yeah, we want to do this every week so tell all your friends how easy it was to win and how your imagination is running wild thinking about what this shirt is going to look like. 

Last but not least, a big thanks to all the ladies that helped us with our NFL picks last week, it was by far the best thing we’ve posted on the blog.  I hope to be doing more stuff like that after the bye week so if you have any lady friends that aren’t really into football and want to write about football, email mustachesports@gmail.com and volunteer them for something. 

Ok, I think that’s it, here you go, How We Did in Week 6/5. 

Week 6 – College Football Picks

Scott Yasko – 3-4 (13-10)

Sef Sam Holy – 4-3 (13-10)

Week 5 – NFL Picks

The Ladies – 4-7-1

Dave Martinez – 7-4-1

Frank Lombardo – 6-5-1

Sef Sam Holy – 4-7-1 (37-32-3)

Week Six - College Football Picks

So I step away from Mustache Sports for just a couple of days to enjoy the birth of my daughter, and Sef Sam Holy has decided to embrace women power! I have to say, our NFL picks this week,based on mascots, TMZ, and airline traffic control are if nothing else, damn entertaining! Way to go ladies.


But it’s college football time and let me start by apologizing to our tens of readers that I wasn’t able to get you your weekly fix of picks on time this week, but then again give me a break, I have been a little busy being in awe of the fact I now have a little Mustache cheerleader to raise. And if she was here last week she probably would have been scratching her head about that Nebraska pick to cover against Wisconsin. How bad was it? I didn’t even take my own advice at the window and cleaned up on the badgers who, led by Russell Wilson, are getting serious National Championship hype. Too bad they play in the Big Ten. But all in all, 4-2 is a good week and I really think it’s time to try and run the table. The lines this week, however, make perfection look anything but easy but we’ll go ahead and give it the old college try. Season record is now at a respectable 10-6 and here’s what Saturday holds:


17Florida +13 ½ at 1LSU


The Gators are in trouble. With senior quarterback John Brantley out heading into the SEC showdown in Baton Rouge, Florida will be forced to depend on not 1, not 2, but 3 freshman quarterbacks. Leading the trio is 6’4 235 lbs Jeff Driskel, a highly touted recruit out of Oviedo, FL who has done nothing but turn the ball over this season. His first career pass against FAU was a pick, and then he threw another interception followed by a fumble in the Kentucky game that led to the Wildcats’ only points. To make matters worse, after Driskel stepped on the field last week late in the second quarter for the injured Brantley, he only managed 14 passing yards on 2 for 6 passing. Yikes. No wonder offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss won’t commit to any of the three QB’s with the other two being Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy, neither of whom have ever seen live action. But the Quarterback position is just one issue facing the Gators who, if nothing else, proved that they still have a long way to go to once again be a top tiered team in the SEC, such as LSU.


Remember a couple of weeks ago, when LSU was headed to Morgantown to face West Virginia and I told our faithful Mustache readers to be on the lookout for #7 Tyrann Mathieu, whom I referred to as a “ball hawking, mouth smacking, cover corner badass?”  Well the rest of the country is starting to take notice, and Kirk Herbstreit has gone as far as to place Mathieu on his Heisman short list. And Mathieu is anchoring a defense that continues to confuse and stifle offenses in the SEC and beyond. They have held teams to 7 points or less in 3 of 5 games this season and with the UF offense now seemingly anemic, I fully expect that number to be 4 out of 6 after Saturday. Additionally, LSU adds a different dynamic to their offense with the return of Jordan Jefferson who Les Miles says will get significant playing time. Jefferson only got 7 snaps last week in a 35-7 win over Kentucky, but he made them count as he did not attempt a pass but had 4 rushes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Jarrett Lee is slated to start under center for the Tigers, but it may be that he is feeling the pressure of Jefferson’s return as he had his worst showing of the season last week throwing for just 169 yards and completing only 8 of his 21 passes. Because LSU’s defense has carried them all year, having Jefferson back might be the spark that puts this offense over the top. Regardless of which QB has the better showing this week Florida has no shot to win this game, and I honestly believe it will be as similar a blood bath as the Gators experience last week against Alabama. Take LSU to cover easily.


Scott - LSU
Sef Sam Holy - LSU


15Auburn +10 at 10Arkansas


I am in awe of the fact that Auburn is the 15th ranked team in the country. They keep finding ways to win, and behind QB Ben Trotter, they have a serviceable leader who has stepped in for Cam Newton quite nicely. The Tigers willed a huge, ugly win against South Carolina last week, edging Steve Spurrier’s bunch 16-13. The Auburn defense looked good, giving up just 289 yard of total offense and stopping the Gamecock pre-season All SEC running back Marcus Lattimore in his tracks as he rushed for just 66 yards on 17 carries. Remember however, that this is the same defense that allowed a track meet to break out against Clemson as those Tigers burned the War Eagles for 624 yards. Auburn is the definition of a Jeckyll & Hyde team on defense which makes taking a ticket to the window with them involved very scary. What is consistent is their offense, however, as Gene Chizik likes to throw the ball around 25 times a game while feeding the rock to Michael Dyer as often as possible. This philosophy led to 41 carries for Dyer last week and even though he managed 141 yards, that’s only a 3.4 yard average. So what do we make of this team? I really can’t say, and although it is difficult to put my finger on this squad, Arkansas is a little bit more predictable.


The Razorbacks contributed quite nicely to Texas A&M’s second half collapse for the second week in a row, as Arkansas was able to overcome a 35-17 halftime deficit. Tyler Wilson threw for 510 yards (the 5th highest in SEC history) and 3 touchdowns but Ronnie Wingo only managed 24 yards rushing. The commitment to the passing game, however, came mainly because Bobby Petrino’s team was coming from behind all day. The glaring deficiency in Arkansas’ win was that their defense gave up 381 yards on the ground and 628 yards total.  


My true advice would be to steer clear of this game completely. Arkansas’ key to victory will be to get Ronnie Wingo more involved as he needs to touch the ball at least 20 times a game. If Auburn can setup the play action pass by gaining yards on the ground through Michael Dyer, that balanced attack really has the ability to gain yards on the lacking Razorback defense. Tough decision here, but give me Auburn and the points and we’ll call it a day.


Scott - Auburn
Sef Sam Holy - Arkansas


12Michigan -7 at Northwestern


Denard Robinson is one of the best athletes in the country; too bad for Michigan he is no
quarterback. Although the Wolverine attack starts, finishes, and circles with and around
Robinson, the most completions he has had in a game this year is 15, which was his number last week against Minnesota. He has thrown for under 100 yards in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games and the only time he went over 200 was in that crazy circus of a match against Notre Dame. But what Denard Robinson adds to a game is that intangible effect he has on defensive coordinators' minds. You have to game plan for him and in that regard he is truly unique. Do you spy him? And if so, with who? If you keep a linebacker on him, you run the risk of being out run if Robinson scrambles. If you put a safety on him, you lose in coverage, and if you decide to spy an end the defense will not only take a hit on the pass rush, but also in defending that lead option that Michigan likes to run. And these are the questions and issues that Northwestern defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz (a Michigan Alum) will have to address Saturday night, and the success of his game plan to contain Denard Robinson will be the difference between a win and a loss.


On the other side of the ball for the Wildcats, they saw the return of Senior quarterback Dan Persa who, despite throwing 4 touchdown passes, was unable to lead Chicago’s Big Ten team to a win against the still undefeated Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois scored 21 fourth quarter points and came back twice to steal a victory from Persa and his Wildcats. But what was evident, was the difference in leadership and decision making ability between Persa and his fill in for the first three games of the season, Kain Colter. Colter was formidable and led the Wildcats to a great opening win against Boston College, but Northwestern built a pre season Heisman campaign around Persa for good reason. The NU quarterback will have even less rust this week when welcoming Michigan to Evanston.


And in Evanston on Saturday night, although it’s not the most hostile of territories, Michigan will still be facing their first road game of the season. The comfort level in the big house could be a disadvantage for the Wolverines as going on the road for the first time in a season is always difficult. There are breaks in routine which could lead to breaks in concentration, and the fact that this comes so late in the season can play right into Northwestern’s hands. I like the Wildcats with the points to make this matchup a good contest and look for them to possibly pull off the upset.


Scott - Northwestern
Sef Sam Holy - Northwestern


GAME OF THE WEEK


3Oklahoma -10 ½ at 11Texas


They will, they won’t; they are, they aren’t: the Big 12 flip-flops more than a congressman born in a red state, representing a blue state and seeking campaign funds while promoting counter issues to the current party affiliation. But with the seemingly inevitable addition of TCU that will help maintain competitive balance as well as a relevant and meaningful membership of 10 teams, it seems as though the conference, and therefore the Red River Rivalry, will have many more memorable matchups to come.


And this year is no exception. The 10 ½ point spread suggests that this game is not going to be close and reflects a dominant Oklahoma team that, behind Landry Jones, has lived up to their preseason number one ranking and then some starting off the season 4-0. But being knocked from their peak last week by LSU (and Alabama) without conceding defeat has left Bob Stoop’s Sooners with an axe to grind. Even though Stoops has said that he “agrees” with the drop in the AP pool stating in the Norman Transcript “The schedule (LSU has) played is something you have to pay attention to,” do not think for a second that he is not using that fall as motivation to his players.


And the timing couldn’t be more perfect. Two weeks ago against Mizzou, Oklahoma seemed to be going through the motions and after coming out and giving up an early lead, they were forced to come back before prevailing 38-28. But the game seemed more like an older brother throwing his younger sibling a bone every now and then just to keep things fun and interesting rather than the competitive shootout that the score might suggest. And if Stoops can’t conjure up some emotion and want to out of his team, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they gave up 532 total yards to the Tigers, OU will be in trouble against the Longhorns. Despite the fact they are the much more talented team and “bounced back” from the flat performance against their conference foe to easily beat Ball State 62-6 last week; that was Ball State … and this is Texas.


Opposite to Oklahoma’s flat-lined plateau is the upward direction that Texas has begun heading in since the benching of Garret Gilbert for the Quarterback tandem of the legacy Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash. And who would have thought, after watching Gilbert as a true freshman enter the BCS national championship game for Case’s brother Colt in 2010 and throw for just 186 yards while going 15-40 and throwing four picks, that this kid would be quitting the team and seeking a transfer less than 2 years later? (Anybody with eyes in their head, that’s who.) And since McCoy and Ash have taken over midway through the BYU game at a point when the Longhorns were down 13-0, Texas has outscored opponents 103-53 to Gilbert’s 34-22.


Coach Mack Brown likes using the young tandem with the view that “It takes (the) pressure off both quarterbacks because neither one has to carry the whole thing on his shoulders. If somebody has a hot hand, you just might leave them in.” And with young receivers such as freshman Jaxon Shipley (younger brother of Cincinnati Bengals WR Jordan Shipley) and sophomore Mike Davis to throw to, the Longhorns won’t only be competitive this weekend, but they’re set up to regain dominance in the Big 12 for years to come.


So it will be the Ash-McCoy combo that again leads the Longhorns into the Cotton Bowl against Landry Jones and his Sooners. And expect UT to make this more of a game than would have been suggested before the season began, but they have to do it by establishing the run and picking their spots in the passing game. Take Mack Brown’s squad and the points as they have the ability, especially in a rivalry game, to keep the score close.


Scott - Texas
Sef Sam Holy - Oklahoma


INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK 


Georgia -2 ½ at Tennessee


Short and sweet on my intrigue of the week because the new baby is finally sleeping which means my window for some shut eye is going to shrink the longer I sit here and write.


Georgia started the season off very shaky as they allowed themselves to take a beating in the Georgia Dome against Boise State. They lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina, and have gotten better with each passing game. Such is the case with teams that are so young. The bulldogs start 3 freshman (running back Isaiah Cromwell, wide out Malcom Mitchell, and linebacker Amarlo Herrera) and 5 sophomores, with 4 other freshman getting solid playing time. They have looked great in back to back wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi St., but they haven’t won in Knoxville since 2005.


Tennessee’s schedule to this point in the season has been weak. They did not look good against Florida, despite the look of the score, as they were down 30-7 when the Gators called off the dog.  And Montana, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are hardly top tier opponents. Tyler Bray slings the ball pretty well and makes good decisions as he’s tossed for 1,328 yards, 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, but those two picks came against the speedy Florida secondary. This is the best example of what they will face Saturday against UGA, and for that reason, I don’t believe the Volunteers will fare well.


Although you will be able to hear Rocky Top bounce off the Smokies that surround Neyland Stadium as 100,000 plus decked out in orange scream their faces off, I think the Dawgs quite them pretty early and go on to win this game, covering the 2 ½ point spread.


Scott - Georgia
Sef Sam Holy - Tennessee


LOCK OF THE WEEK 


Missouri -4 at 20Kansas State


I am still not sold on Kansas State as their win against Miami was gritty, but Miami has work to do. And last week against Baylor they were able to come back, but the Bears are a one man team with a Swiss cheese defense. Collin Klein and John Hubert run the veer option as well as any team in the country, but Klein still struggles to throw the ball and as I have mentioned before, this really hinders their ability to comeback in ball games. Last week against the Bears they were able to do so on the ground, which is a true rarity, and Baylor really helped out with terrible clock management.


Mizzou has a 3 headed monster on offense that we got an up close and personal look at both against ASU and Oklahoma. The sophomore James Franklin is a name you need to remember as he can do it with his legs and his arm, but would prefer to throw the ball. Running back Henry Josey is averaging 12.4 yards a carry and junior wide receiver TJ Moe is a gritty athlete with great hands who can and will take a hit across the middle and shake it off.


Take Mizzou ALL DAY in this game.


Scott - Missouri
Sef Sam Holy - Missouri 


HONORABLE MENTION 


Temple -9 ½ At Ball State


How about a MAC showdown for Mustache sports this week? As simple as this one gets: Temple good. Ball State bad.


Take Temple to cover.


Scott - Temple
Sef Sam Holy - Temple