Bears Packers - Week Two

I'll be there ladies and gentlemen.  I got a free ticket from my boy Kurt (Burt Kolson) and I couldn't be more giddy.  I've overdosed on my football intake since Notre Dame Navy kicked off Saturday the 1st and I was trying to use this week to disconnect and calm my brain down but it's not happening.  

Lambeau Field can't wait to meet me tonight!

This is a game that will also determine whether or not I emotionally invest in the Bears this year.  If they win, I'm in.  And if they lose, I'm going to focus on the White Sox breaking my heart and dealing with Florida State losing to NC State while I'm away in Europe and can't watch.  I don't want to sound like a jerk, but I'm too old and the Bears have broken my heart too much for me to excited about a 1-1 start.  

My prediction:  Cutler and Rodgers go back and forth the entire game, we see tons of Lambeau Leaps (someone at my office called it "Lambeau Jump" no joke, and he poses like he really cares about football and the Bears, what a jerk), and Cutty to B Marsh connections.  I'll even throw in a special teams touchdown by each team just because I can.  Someone wins the game 41-38 but I'm not gonna say who.  

Ok fine, I'll take the Bears, but only because I deserve to be a homer a couple times a year.  

Tomorrow, Ryan and I break down this week's college football games worth watching, but for right now, let's go Bears!  

Lambeau Jump.  Wow.  

College Football - Week One Picks

Stick with us and your Sunday mornings will never feel like this

I rarely ever gamble on anything.  I'll play poker here and there, or bet a buddy $5 on a game we are watching together, but I don't have a bookie or an online gambling account.  I do feel like putting myself out there by providing my picks against the spread is risk enough.  The upside, you think I know what I'm doing.  The downside, you think I'm an idiot.  I'll take being an idiot in your eyes over having to tell my wife I lost a paycheck because a 20 year old kid threw 3 interceptions.  

Record to date

Sef Sam Holy - 2-1

Ryan McMahon - 1-2

#24 Boise State (+7) at #13 Michigan State

Ryan:  I like Boise to cover in a close game.  Close game throughout but MSU just comes out ahead.  Boise has lost 7 starters and has a inexperienced QB starting for the 1st time on the road, you know they can score points but MSU's crazy good D ends (specifically Gholston) will put the untested Southwick on his back several times. 

Sef Sam Holy:  I'll take MSU to not only beat a depleted Boise team, but make a statement that they are force to be reckon with this season.  Losing Kirk Cousins will undoubtedly hurt their offense, but Andrew Maxwell will play well enough with a sick defense and home crowd behind him tonight to win by 10 points. 

Notre Dame (-16.5) vs Navy in Ireland

Ryan:   ND covers.  ND beat Navy 56-14 last year, I predict much of the same.  Total homer pick and couldn't care less. 

Sef Sam Holy:  For the first time all year, I'll agree with you.  I hate Notre Dame and nothing would start off my Saturday better than to see Brian Kelly crying on the sidelines in another country as the Irish drop a game they should win, but I think they are way too much for a Navy team I won't care about enough to watch again the rest of the year.  

#14 Clemson (-3.5) vs Auburn in Atlanta

Ryan:  The line on this game feels so spot-on its unbelievable.  I think Auburn wins in the first upset of the year.  If this game is played in late October Auburn wins by double digits, they are loaded with talent even if its young and I say they finish the year in the top 20. 

Sef Sam Holy:  I hate Clemson almost as much as I hate Notre Dame.  Without Sammy Watkins, Tajh Boyd may struggle to get going but I think they end up winning this game.  Tons of people are sleeping on a very talented Clemson team and for good reason, see last year's Orange Bowl, but they won the ACC last year, and return almost everybody.  Will they cover the 3.5?  Sure but I'm about as confident in that as I am in Lee Corso making sense on Game Day Saturday morning.   

Hawaii (-42) at #1 USC 

Reason enough to watch USC

Ryan:  Really!?!? 42 point spread week 1!?!? Thats ridiculous, obviously SC wins huge but not that huge.  Kiffin (insert bad word to describe a person) gets his starters out after 3 quarters and with Norm Chow taking over at Hawaii i think they can at least score some points.  USC does have the most talent 1-22 in my opinion, but who cares because they're USC and if you have ever walked on that campus its like a model shoot every step.  You would have to be some sort of super moron to not want to go there.  Hawaii covers

Sef Sam Holy:  This type of line is why I don't gamble.  I'd rather watch this game to enjoy Gus Johnson yelling than worry about what happens in the 4th quarter of what will be a blowout.  Give me USC just to disagree with a guy that lived in Vegas and really gambles on football.  

#8 Michigan (+14) vs #2 Alabama in Dallas

Ryan:  Michigan to cover.  Alabama pounds the ball and plays boring old Saban ball.  They win but it will probably be closer to a 10 point victory.  Early in the year like this Shoelace's talent alone keeps the game close against a defense that lost 6 players to in the draft alone.  Great first week game, really pumped for this one  and even though as a ND fan i despise Big Blue i wouldn't mind seeing an upset.  

Sef Sam Holy:  Michigan can win this game outright if they don't turn the ball over, Denard makes 3 big plays (40+ yards), and their defense scores them a turnover that gives their offense the ball inside the red zone.  If there is ever a time to play a defense that is starting 7 new players, it's the first game of the season.  We saw last night in the Vandy/SC game that missed tackles are a part of early season college football and those missed tackles can turn into 78 yard TD passes.  I do think Michigan comes into this season slightly overrated but they find a way to make this a game worth watching when the 4th quarter rolls around and cover the 14 points.  

Georgia Tech (+7.5) at #16 Virginia Tech

Ryan:  It sucks to play in Blacksburg and GT knows it.  GT gets Beamered all Monday night.  VT has been slow to start the last few years but that trend ends this year, 9 defensive starters return to one of the nations already best units.  They will be tested against that stupid GT triple option offense, the only way to stop that though is with speed on D and VT has that in spades.

Believe all you want, it's still Kentucky football

Sef Sam Holy:  I'm going to go the other way on this and say this game mimics what you see happen quite a bit when a vastly more talented team plays someone they are supposed to beat in an early season conference game.  Yes, Blacksburg will be going nuts and the Yellow Jackets will struggle, but expect a low scoring affair that's closer than the rosters will indicate when the NFL Draft rolls around.  Georgia Tech covers but only because I think Va Tech wins by 7.  

I hope you all enjoy a wonderful 3 day weekend that's filled with good friends, college football, and BBQ.  Soak it in baby, watch the pregame shows, put on your favorite jersey, and let hope spring eternal.  There is still a chance your team runs the table and plays in Miami this January.  Come Tuesday, work is back and your team could be looking at an 0-1 start.  

College Kickoff With Ryan McMahon

Rule one in college football, your team is always number one

I’ve had one of the worst weeks of my adult life this week.  I won’t share any details because no one reads a sports blog to hear about the personal life of the guy writing the entry, but let’s just say it’s making the college football kick off tonight extra nice. 

I got an email from a buddy of mine that moved to Colorado and now has to watch and talk college football with people that would rather spend their Saturdays in the fall hiking and being outside rather than sitting on their couch watching the best sport ever all day long.  Needless to say, I feel bad for him, but he does like Notre Dame so it’s give and take. 

Anyway, let’s hear from Ryan McMahon. 

Ryan:  I haven’t even thought about Saturday’s lines, I can barely contain my excitement for tonight, let alone Saturday.  And I have 2 Fantasy Football drafts tonight, one will take place at hooters and all my GF wants is some fried pickles to-go.  Basically these next 5 days are going to be fantastic.

Sef Sam Holy:  My next 60 hours - Fantasy football draft at work at 330, home for tape delayed Vandy SC, sleep, work, MSU Boise State, sleep, cook steaks for friends at 730, have 4 friends over for Notre Dame Navy, then on the couch for laying down and watching college football until San Diego State and Washington get done.  Yeah, I'm stoked.  College football has officially become my favorite sport and this first weekend is better, in my opinion, than the first weekend of March Madness.

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vandy

Ryan:  I’ll take the Gamecocks to cover tonight even though they always have trouble at Vandy.

Sef Sam Holy: I think SC will cover the 6.5 tonight but it's a great line.  I would be willing to bet Vandy has a halftime lead.  The thing that makes me nervous about taking SC with that cover is that Steve Spurrier now plays boring, SEC football.  They have a ridiculous defense and Lattimore is going to run the sheezy out of the ball.  I think Vandy is up at half like 10-7, SC ties it on their first drive in the 3rd, and then scores a TD early in the 4^th.  But ya know what, let's start off the year disagreeing, it's more fun, give me Vandy. 

Ryan: Lattimore gets the ball all day but the Old Ball Coach will chuck it a few more times this year with a less alcoholic QB.  If Vandy ever does have the lead it will be 3-0 and wont last long, but im glad you disagree because this is football dammit, and agreements are for badminton.

Minnesota (-8.5) at UNLV

Ryan:  UNLV to cover although that is a bet with my heart.  Minnesota will be terrible as always

Sef Sam Holy:  I'll go Big Ten over UNLV any day of the week.  After the 100 Day Burpee Challenge, I might be big enough to suit up and play for the Runnin Rebels.  If Duke and Indiana can't be good at football, neither can UNLV.  Disagree again, give me the Gophers. 

Ryan: You can make all the Rebs jokes you want but they will happily lose by a touchdown and cover just the same.  And UNLV can be good at football, two words: Randell Frickin Cunningham!!! You know how many burpees Randell did at UNLV? The answer: all of them.

Washington State (+12.5) at BYU

Ryan:  WSU to cover Mike Leach turns the program around starting tonight.

Sef Sam Holy:  Giving Mike Leach 12.5 points is nuts but it's game one, of year one, so it's a game I would definitely stay away from if I was betting my own money.  BYU won 10 games last year and although they were all against teams not in the top 25, 10 wins is still 10 wins.  They don't score a ton (30.1 ppg in 2011) so the almost two touchdown win could be difficult, but I'll take BYU just because I've seen them be decent and I want them to be the best independent team in college football (my passive aggressive jab at ND). 

Ryan:  Mike Leach.  Mike Leach.  Mike Leach. Dont care that its his first game and his talent isn't what you would call "talent".  WSU finds a way to score and keep it close enough to cover those beautiful 12 1/2pts.

The Return of the Mustache

With the NFL season less than two weeks away and South Carolina and Vandy kicking off in 6 days, it’s a good time to bring back the Mustache.  For all of you that missed us since we’ve been gone, we’ve missed you too.  I really don’t have any excuses for not posting since last December other than the fact that I work a full time job, spend time with my wife outside of work, and tried to focus on working out and getting my figure back to resemble what it was back in high school.  Good news though, work is going well, my marriage is awesome, and I’ve lost 18lbs since January 1^st (thanks 100 Day Burpee Challenge and T-Rex for the help/motivation). 

    

This time around at Mustache Sports, I’m hoping to accomplish a couple of things. 

More Contributors

I’d really like to get more people involved in writing posts and participating in the comments.  Last year, Colin Nelson (C-Murder), Chris Wernick (Monster), Scott Yasko (Scott Yasko), and Kurt Olson (Bert Kolson) did a fantastic job of providing insights into the world of NFL prognostications, fantasy football,  college football, and the Chicago Bears.  This year, you can all expect to see them back in some sort of capacity.  But as goes life, things change.  Colin is knee deep in his job and commitment to his beloved Molly, Wernick got a new job that involves him being on the road a lot more, Kurt is killing things over at CDW, and Scott had a beautiful baby girl.  So although you can expect to still read the things that pertain to the wonderful world of Mustache Sports, don’t expect to see it on such a consistent basis.  So please, if you have any interest in writing about anything, just let me know, and we will get it up for others to enjoy. 

Picks 

I am still going to be posting NFL and college picks on a weekly basis against the spread, I think that was pretty fun last year.  And I don’t know if I’m going to do much to adjust how all of that information was presented since I felt we did a great job with that last year.  Scott’s college football write ups were something that would put ESPN to shame, Wernick made Matthew Berry look like he didn’t play fantasy football, and when Colin or Kurt wrote up a Bears game preview, it always left me thinking that they should be working for the Score.  I guess the next part goes back to the getting more people involved so if you would like to participate in this portion of the blog and commit to doing it every week, please feel free to let me know. 

Pictures

I want to post pictures this year, they make things more fun.

Email Conversations

This year, my goal is to post more email discussions that I have with different people.  Scott and I did one last year about the FSU Notre Dame Champs Sports Bowl and since things turned out the way I wanted, (I ended up winning the argument, being correct about the result of the game (FSU 18 Notre Dame No Chance), and just looked smarter at the end of everything)  I want to do more of it. 

Interviews

I would also like to interview other bloggers or maybe even someone famous.  That’s sort of on my Mustache Sports Bucket List.  I’ve already had one Chicago celebrity commit to doing such a thing, Scott Bolohan (follow him on Twitter @scottbolohan), so expect that interview sooner rather than later. 

Twitter 

I have also created a Twitter account for the blog so be sure to follow us @Mustache_Sports.  Currently we are following 0 people and have 0 followers.  Impressed?  I thought so, especially since I just created it 3 minutes ago. 

Podcast

I’m also working on being able to post some sort of Podcast.  Once the technology gets worked out, and it’s easy to listen to and record, expect to see these as much as possible. 

All in all, I think this year at Mustache Sports is going to be fun.  I’m excited to see what we evolve into and who else wants to get involved.  I started writing this blog last year as a way to have some fun with things my friends and I had to say about sports without giving the reader a bunch of clichés he/she already hears from anchors at ESPN or the idiot at work that checks the score and comes in to the office the next day and says, “what a game last night, those were some really cool touchdowns.”  So, I hope, at the end of the day, we can provide that. 

It’s good to be back and it’s good to see you.  You look great by the way.  Here’s to a White Sox World Series, a Chicago Bears Super Bowl, an FSU National Championship and a fun year at Mustache Sports!  Let’s go!

The Champs Sports Bowl Email Exchange

The email started as a joke about Florida State being filled with Jenn Stergers and Notre Dame being filled with Adam Lamberts.  We had a good laugh and then Scott and I gave our score predictions for the Champs Sports Bowl.

Sef Sam Holy – FSU 30 Notre Dame 10

Scott Yasko – Notre Dame 38 FSU 24

And then the fun started…………..

Sef Sam Holy

If you think ND is scoring 38 points of Florida State, I’m not sure you’ve watched much college football this year.  Did Joe Montana get in a time machine and figure out a way to play in this game as a 25 year old?  C’Mon Man!

Scott Yasko

Relativity is a hell of a measuring stick in college football and you would be surprised as to how often it is right. I saw how Florida State played a mediocre Wake Forest team and I watched ND outplay (if not for 2 interceptions, they demolish) that same garbage. I think 38 points is not only doable, I wouldn't be surprised if they racked up 40+.

FSU = Biggest dissapointment in the nation this year.

I hear the makings of a wager….

Sef Sam Holy

Yeah, that game against Wake was 82 days ago, a lot different defense since then.  They haven’t given up more than 19 points in the 7 games since (3 of those games were 7 points or less).  I’m not saying they will shut ND out, but 38 point is pretty crazy to assume.  Especially to the Notre Dame offense led by…….well, who cares who plays QB, I’m sure it’s someone good. 

FSU has a better defense than Stanford and ND could only muster 7 points and a garbage time TD against them.  Good luck today.

No wager, I’m about as confident in FSU as you are in ND (we both don’t really want to put money on this).

And if FSU is the biggest disappointment in the nation, then ND would be a very close second.  ND had a BCS game handed to them and they couldn’t beat South Florida or an overrated Michigan team. 

I’ll bet on next year if you would like?  More wins?  Higher BCS rank at the end of the year?  You name it bud. 

Scott Yasko

I hate making excuses, but I am going to anyway. Notre Dame had 26 turnovers this year, a -13 ratio, and know how many were in the red zone? I don't either but I know that it was more than half. You mentioned the Stanford game, 2 to's in the red zone, one late in the third quarter when they were driving to tie the game. AND Notre Dame wasn't a top 5 team to start the season as FSU was. AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.

And the 7 games since Wake Forest?? Let's see who we can take seriously ON OFFENSE out of Duke, Maryland, NC State, BC, Miami, Virgina, Florida…..

Duke: 93rd in scoring

Maryland: 89th

NC State: 56th

BC: 112th

Miami: 72nd

Virginia: 88th

Florida: 71st

Tough schedule. (And see, I can get statistics to say what I want too)

And Kelly isnt going anywhere. They have the guys in place that are going to be one year better next year. ND has a top ten finish…. if not better.

Sef Sam Holy

“AND Notre Dame (and I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing) had the opportunity to win every game they played this year. FSU…. not so much.”

I paused there because FSU was leading in the 4^th quarter in 3 of their losses (and down 3 against Oklahoma, the number one ranked team in the country at the time).  It just sucked that their second best option at QB was a 5’11 165lb freshman.  Shame on Jimbo Fisher for that but all of their losses

And I’m not saying the teams they have played were amazing, but your point was that Notre Dame was going to score 38 points tonight, maybe 40, when ND has only scored more than 38 points 3 times this year and that was against Air Force, Navy, and Maryland. 

The team that closely resembles FSU that ND has played is MSU and ND won, so there you go.

FSU doesn’t really have a good win this year, they’ve been disappointing, there is no disputing that.  But in games Fisher/Stoops have lot of time to prepare for a team (Oklahoma this year, WV in 09 bowl game, and SC last year bowl game), the defense has looked really impressive and this bunch of players is the most talented they have had in the last 6-7 years. 

Honestly, because ND turns the ball over so much, I would expect the FSU defense to turn one of those into 7 points.  FSU has great special teams and I think that leads to some advantage.  If EJ Manuel and the FSU offense doesn’t turn the ball over more than 2 times, I think they win 24-13 or something like that.  If FSU doesn’t score on defense or special teams, and Manuel throws 2 picks and Freeman fumbles….ND wins 27-17. 

FSU and ND have had very similar seasons and for only one of them, it will end on a high note. 

$20 on FSU finishing ahead of Notre Dame next year? 

Scott Yasko

In every single game Notre Dame played this year, and I can 100% ASSURE YOU THAT THIS IS NOT MY BIAS, they looked like the more talented team. But they also looked young, inexperienced, and doe eyed. But if you look at what ND's offense does, spread style offense that looks to pass first but keeps you honest with quick draws and between the tackle dives, that style most simulates….. pause for effect…. a Clemson team that went up and down the field on the seminoles.

And yes I hear you that that was in the beginning of the year and their defense didn’t allow blah blah 7 games blah blah. THE POINT I WAS TRYING TO MAKE is that FSU has not played as good a offense as notre dame's in any of those final 7, none. And putting points aside, Brian Kelly is one of the best offensive minds in college football. Account for the amount of time HE has had to prepare. 38 to 40 is not far fetched.

38-24.

Michael Floyd has 3 touchdowns.

EJ Manuel throws 2 picks.

Jimbo Fischer crying on the sideline and coach stoops curlled up in a ball slapping himself in the head repeatedly wondering where the hell bobby bowden is.

Sef Sam Holy

100% ASSURE YOU THAT IS NOT MY BIAS, but the Clemson was the trap game after the Oklahoma game and the Tigers were coming off a HUGE win against Auburn, a game in which Clemson usually loses. 

We will see how the offensive genius that put up 15 against Pitt, 17 against USC, 16 against Boston College (YES, Boston College, at home), and 14 against Stanford does against a defense with 5 future NFL draft picks. 

34-13

EJ Manuel throws for 2 TD’s and runs for one more. 

Greg Reid takes a punt to the house and gets himself a pick. 

The FSU defense sacks whoever ND plays at QB 6 times. 

Brian Kelly is caught on camera saying the F word 4 times and gets fired after next year’s 6-6 season.

Scott Yasko

Yeah, I did say that off the cuff. And im in for a $20.

And…….Scene!

NBA Season Preview - The Western Conference

If you were looking for a NBA Western Conference preview, you’ve come to the wrong place.  Mustache Sports only provides playoff prediction sort of things.  Remember, I’ve got lots to do at work so I can’t write up detailed previews for every single team.  But what I can provide is an opinion on the West will shape up this season. 

Here’s how I think the top 8 seeds will look come playoff time. 

1.  Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have the best 1-2 punch with Durrant and Westbrook in the West and baring an injury to those two, the Sonics should win what looks to be a weaker Western Conference.  Anytime you get a chance to watch this team play, it’s worth your 2.5 hours.  James Harden and Serge Ibaka are two of my favorite players in the entire league.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are the Chicago Bulls of the West. 

2.  San Antonio Spurs

Despite everyone hollering about the Spurs being too old, they won the most regular season games in the West last year and held the number one seed.  I don’t sleep on Greg Popovich and what he does as a coach.  If he’s saying DeJuan Blair and James Anderson are good at basketball, then I’m going to believe him. 

3.  Los Angeles Clippers

Lob City baby!  What gets lost in all the CP3 talk is the fact that the Clippers have a really nice team.  Caron Butler and Chauncey “Mr Big Shot” Billups were excellent pieces that will fit in nicely with Griffin and CP3.  This team will get into some trouble if DeAndre Jordan gets into foul trouble but I could see them making a move by dealing Mo Williams for a backup big that can chew gum and walk at the same time come February. 

4.  Memphis Grizzles

Resigning Marc Gasol, a top 5 center, was big in keeping the momentum generated in last year’s playoff run.  A healthy Rudy Gay will make all the difference in this year’s campaign.  If OJ Mayo steps up and turns into the superstar he has the ability to become, you could possibly see this team upset OKC and represent the West in the Finals this year. 

5.  Denver Nuggets

This is my favorite Western Conference team to watch.  They score tons of points and have a lot of likeable players (Ty Lawson, Nene, Danilo Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo).  It wouldn’t surprise me if this team ended up finishing with the second best regular season record in the West.  It goes to show that you can trade a superstar and get pieces back that make you competitive.  I do think that the lack of a genuine superstar will be their demise come May. 

6.  Los Angeles Lakers

People are really down on the Lakers this year because of the Lamar Odom deal and Kobe turning 33 (in basketball years, he’s almost 50).  But it’s still the Lakers and they still have, in any matchup, 3 of the best possible 5 players on the floor with Gasol, Bryant, and Bynum.  I think they will go as far as Bynum takes them in the playoffs but this team isn’t deep enough to legitimately contend for a title. 

7.  Dallas Mavericks

It’s hard to envision an NBA Champ taking this kind of fall but after watching them get blown out on Christmas and the day after Christmas, I don’t know how you put them ahead of the teams already mentioned.  I know they still have Dirk, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd, but this team just looks like it’s missing something.  That something, Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and Caron Butler.  It’s only two games so this may be an overreaction but this is a shortened season and with the scheduling being the way it is, older teams are going to have a harder time. 

8.  Golden State Warriors

Mark Jackson wants his team to play defense and I honestly believe him.  I just don’t know if he has the personnel to establish that identity.  But the Warriors can put up some points and outrun the best of them.  I think they sneak into the playoffs this year ahead of Portland and…..wait for it…….the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Worst Teams to Watch

I wouldn’t pay money to go watch the Utah Jazz.  But other than that, the rest of the non-playoff teams, Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Portland Trailblazers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Phoenix Suns, all give me a reason to tune in.  I guess maybe the Suns, I could see them being pretty boring when Nash sits on the bench. 

Playoff Predictions

Thunder over Warriors in 6

Spurs over Mavericks in 5

Lakers over Clippers in 7

Grizzles over Nuggets in 7

Thunder over Grizzles in 6

Spurs over Lakers in 6

Thunder over Spurs in 6

See you tomorrow when I hand out some NBA awards and predict who wins the NBA Finals.  To quote Bart Scott, “Can’t Wait!”

NBA Season Preview - The Eastern Conference

With the NBA back, and Mustache Sports taking notice, I think it’s time we provide you with a preview of how we feel this season will play out.  I’m not talking about giving you a team by team breakdown, but maybe just a playoff prediction sort of thing?  Will that work?  Good, thanks for understanding, I’m at work and although it is pretty slow this week, I still have stuff I need to get done. 

Here’s how I think the top 8 seeds will look come playoff time. 

1.  Miami Heat

Through two games, the Miami Heat look really, really good.  If they were playing the full 82 game season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a run at the 1996 Bulls 72 win record.  Norris Cole can ball (thank the Bulls for dealing him last draft day) and might be the answer at PG.  Shane Battier will help them in the locker room and in crunch time situations with his defense and ability to not be an offensive liability.  I’ll go on record right now and say that the Heat will win the NBA title this year.  I’m not at all trying to jinx them into a season ending Lebron/D Wade knee injury, I’m serious.  There, if you don’t like basketball, you can stop reading.

2.  Chicago Bulls

I’m super stoked to watch the Bulls when they get everything going.  Derrick Rose is great and the addition of Rip Hamilton is going to be HUGE the last 6 minutes of close games.  The Bulls have the best 10 man rotation in all of the NBA.  The only problem being, they will have to beat the Miami Heat in the playoffs and I don’t think D Rose has enough help to get that done.  I will say that IF Carlos Boozer plays like an All-Star and stays healthy, and IF Joakim Noah gets better and stays healthy, and IF Luol Deng turns into Tony Allen on defense, they have a chance of taking the Heat to 7 games and anything can happen in a game 7.  So yes, I guess I’m telling you there is a chance. 

3.  New York Knicks

After watching them get outscored by 27 points in a 17 minute stretch against the Celtics and still end up winning that game, I think they are the 3^rd best team in the East.  Anytime you have a scorer like Carmelo “Slap and Run” Anthony, a versatile big like Amare Stoudemire, and defense in the middle with Tyson Chandler, you are going to win close games.  The Knicks look good right now, but I still think they are missing a point guard and although I do like Toney Douglas, I think the Eastern Conference Semi’s is as far as they go. 

4.  Indiana Pacers

As a Bulls fan, I got to watch them a lot late last year and then some early this season.  The Pacer roster is very nice and I think they become, along with the Knicks, the team that surprises people this season and take that leap into the “teams we follow closely in the East” category.  Danny Grainger needed some help last year and I think with the development of Paul George, Roy Hibbert looking like a top 5 Center, Tyler Hansbrough getting better, and the addition of David West, he got it.  Look for these guys to make a move at the deadline and possibly win a playoff series this year. 

5.  Boston Celtics

It’s crazy to look at a ranking of the East and see the Celtics getting ranked at 5.  Especially since they haven’t had Paul Pierce these first two games and almost won both of them (against teams ranked higher nonetheless).  But I think you will see KG and Pierce not play in 100 combined games this year and I just don’t see enough scoring on the team to make up for them being out.  The lockout schedule with its 7 games in 10 nights is going to hurt older teams and the C’s are no exception.  Brandon Bass looks like a great pickup, but Keyon Dooling, Marquis Daniels, Jermaine O’Neal, and Sasha Pavlovic will all play significant minutes this year and they are not very good at playing basketball. 

6.  Orlando Magic

This prediction is all predicated on Dwight Howard staying in Orlando for the entire season.  If he gets dealt, then I get a pass.  Deal?  Thanks. 

7.  Atlanta Hawks

Losing Jamal Crawford may not have been a horrible thing for the Hawks but they didn’t do anything to replace the scoring he provided.  I like Josh Smif (he looks like The Game if you’ve never heard that before, go ahead, google it), Joe Johnson is nice, I like Al Horford, and Jeff Teague is a fun player to watch, but they start Marvin Williams at the 3 and Tracy McGrady is in their 8 man rotation.  I think they will finish around .500 and lose to the Bulls in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs. 

8.  Philedelphia 76ers

Out of the bottom 10 teams in the East, Philly serves to have the most depth and most well rounded roster.  They have a lot of assets with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, Specer Hawes, Lou Williams, Evan Turner, and Jodie Meeks, but they need to turn those assets into a superstar and I just don’t see a realistic scenario out there right now where that happens.  They remind me a lot of those Kirk Heinrich, Ben Gordon Bulls teams.  Fun to watch and root for, shows signs of promise, but are stuck in NBA Purgatory…….no legitimate superstar, will always pick between 10-16 and have a lot of really nice role players. 

Worst Teams to Watch

In no particular order, the Bobcats, Bucks, Raptors, and Pistons are all really bad and really boring.  Conversely, the Cavs, Wizards, and Nets are really bad but for reasons I won’t go into, could be worth watching on a random Tuesday night. 

Playoff Predictions

Heat over 76ers in 4

Bulls over Hawks in 5

Knicks over Magic in 6

Celtics over Pacers in 7

Heat over Celtics in 6

Bulls over Knicks in 7

Heat over Bulls in 6

See you tomorrow when I do this EXACT same thing for the West!  I know, I’m excited too.  

Mustache Thinking With Sef Sam Holy

I’m really excited for the NBA to start and even more excited to see what Bulls roster we see on Christmas day against the Lakers.  My NBA enjoyment involves player movement discussion and hypothetical trade situations.  I’m not Bill Simmons on the ESPN Trade Machine, I just like to bounce my ideas around in discussions/emails/blog posts.  The NBA may not be the best sport to watch on TV, but it’s the best sport to talk about with other people that love the NBA. 

I don’t have the sports bandwidth to pay attention to everything sports related.  I have a wife that I love, and love to hang out with, so I don’t make her suffer and keep sports on my TV 24/7.  With that being said, I have to consciously not pay attention to certain sports.  One of those sports is college basketball.  Don’t hear me wrong, I love Championship Week and big Saturday games during January and February.  I love filling out a bracket and watching as much March Madness as I can, but I don’t watch college hoops at this point in the year.  However, I did DVR the Kentucky Indiana game from this past weekend and it was unreal.  I don’t have a breakdown of it for you, but it really got me excited for when I do start watching college basketball.  I really want to catch a game in Indiana one day, let’s put that on my sports bucket list.

I saw the ESPN 30 for 30 on The U last night and it made me hate Miami even more than I do now. 

If Florida State loses to Notre Dame on December 29^th, I’m going to start thinking Jimbo Fisher is a Ron Zook/Dabo Sweeney type of college football coach.  He’s shown to be a great recruiter, but he doesn’t know how to win football games.  I really, really hope the Noles beat the Irish so I don’t have to think about something like this going into a year in which the Seminoles will bring back almost every one of their starters/players that contribute, and should be ranked in the top 10 to start the year.  There is no easier path to the BCS National Championship game than Florida State’s schedule next year and with the talent they will have on their roster, I expect Fisher to get there. 

Am I the only Bears fan that is rooting for them to lose out so that they get the best pick possible in the NFL Draft this April?  The only difference between finishing 9-7 and 7-9 is 8 draft spots.  Here’s my abbreviated “if I was the Bears GM” plan I have.  Finish 7-9, get the 12^th pick in the draft.  Let Matt Forte walk, save the $40mil against the cap, and get the compensatory 2^nd round pick.  Trade Devin Hester to whatever team is willing to give you a 3^rd round pick for him.  With my 5 picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, I take Michael Floyd first and with the rest of those picks, draft an offensive lineman, a linebacker, a running back, and a cornerback.  With my final 4 picks, I get another offensive lineman, another linebacker, and a tight end.  There, I just fixed the Bears for the rest of the Jay Cutler era. 

I might get a Tim Tebow jersey with the Christmas money I get. 

Don’t bring up the White Sox this week, let’s talk about something else.  

Dwight Howard and the Bulls

It’s hard to believe that Christmas is in 15 days and I couldn’t be more jacked up.  I have two Christmas parties next week (one at my place, you are more than welcome to come) and one at work that I’m actually planning.  I like decorating Christmas trees, hanging lights at my place, Christmas shopping, opening presents, listening to Christmas music, getting fat, having days off from work, the snow outside, just really everything “commercial” about Christmas.  It’s a great time of the year and this year isn’t any different.  I’m a Christmas guy, not Clark Griswold Christmas guy, but pretty close.

This year Christmas is going to be extra special because I get to watch NBA basketball for the first time since Dallas beat Lebron/Wade/Bosh last June.  With the Chris Paul trade, and then subsequent no trade, I started my getting excited for the NBA.

I, like most Bulls fans, am really optimistic about this 2012 shortened season.  I’m stoked to get to watch Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and the rest of the Bulls play hard every night, win a lot of games, and be a scary team come playoff time.  There is no doubt that the Bulls have a legitimate shot at winning an NBA title this year. 

The only question I have about where the Bulls are right now is this, why didn’t they go after Dwight Howard and give up whatever Orlando wanted to get him? 

Looking at the Bulls roster, I see a better package for Dwight than what any other NBA team (at least any other team in which Howard would want to sign an extension with) could offer.  Noah, Gibson, Brewer, 2012 first round pick, and Charlotte’s top 9 protected number one in 2012 (or top 3 protected number one in 2013) for Dwight Howard. 

I know what you are thinking, that’s a lot to give up for one player, but that’s what the NBA is now.  For as much as I love everyone else on the Bulls, nobody but D Rose is a superstar and if you are going to win a title in this league, you have to have more than one superstar. 

I sort of contradicted myself in what I said earlier about the Bulls having a legitimate shot at winning a title and then saying they need another superstar to do it, but hear me out. 

The Bulls can win a title this year but a lot of things need to go their way in order for them to do so.  First off, D Rose needs to play like an MVP again, but more so, he needs to do it in the playoffs.  Carlos Boozer needs to play like an All-Star, but more so, play like one in the playoffs.  Luol Deng needs to shut down Paul Pierce/Lebron James and Joakim Noah needs to outplay whatever center he plays in any playoff matchup (but especially Miami) more than he did last year.  The Bulls are a talented team but if they win, it will be because everything went their way and they outplayed a more talented team.

By getting Howard, the Bulls may lose a lot of their depth, and maybe some of their identity, but they instantly become the best the team in the NBA when they send out their starting 5.  Howard, Boozer, Deng, Bogans, Rose…….yikes!  Everything doesn’t have to go your way in the playoffs (and during the regular season) to win a title with that group, you just need to have everyone healthy.  Without Howard, you still need everyone to be healthy, so that contingency is a wash. 

I’m not pointing out anything that most of you don’t already know (the Bulls with Howard are a better team) but I’m just throwing out the question as to why we didn’t hear more about them being a bigger player in this whole situation.

So here we are, Dwight Howard looks like he’s going to the Nets. 

The Bulls are still in need of a swingman that can play during the last 6 minutes of a game, not be a defensive liability and make big shots.  With the Heat signing Shane Battier, Phoenix inking Grant Hill, and Brandon Roy retiring, I’m not sure a whole lot is out there.  You just suggesting Jamal Crawford made me throw up in my mouth a little bit, no thanks on that guy.

My hope is that the Bulls package something together for OJ Mayo.  Last year Memphis agreed to a deal to send Mayo to Indiana for Greg Hibbard.  I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest the Bulls send Omar Asik (as long as Noah is on the Bulls, Asik is only playing 10-13 minutes a game as a backup center), Ronnie Brewer, and a 2012 first rounder for the former USC star.  I think he has superstar potential and while he’s available, the Bulls should take advantage. 

The NBA is about superstars and because the Bulls have one in D Rose, and play in Chicago (a big market players want to play), they need to not stand pat and aggressively try to take advantage of obtaining Rose some help when they have the assets to do it.  The 2012 NBA Championship is up for grabs and I’d like the Bulls to go out there and get it.    

What are the White Sox doing?

What are the White Sox doing? 

Kenny Williams can tell me he’s “rebuilding,” but I see through that and know he’s just trying to lower expectations and make things easier on first year skipper Robin Ventura. 

9 months after I have “All In” thrown at me, I’m seeing the White Sox turn into something I hate watching as a sports fan and that’s an organization that’s not moving towards winning a championship. 

His World Series Championship still holds water, Williams won a title in this new era of Boston/New York spending $160-$200 million on their teams.  However, in the years since, I’ve watched him develop an identity crisis.  Is he a shrewd general manager that sells a fifty cent pieces for three quarters?  Or is he the GM that overpays people to play for him? 

What is Kenny Williams doing?

I don’t mind dealing players you don’t intend to sign for younger players in order to replenish your farm system.  But there should be a plan in place to keep players that work out the way you wanted them to when you originally traded for them. 

Let’s take John Danks for example. 

When the Sox traded Brandon McCarthy for him back in December of 2006, they were getting back a left-handed starter that scouts said had ace potential.  After a rough rookie campaign in 2007 (as a 22 year old), Sox fans have watched him develop into, although not an ace, a legitimate number 2.  He’s going to be a pitcher that will throw 200 innings every season, give you a chance to win 18-22 of the games he starts, and can win a big game or two (see game 163 against the Twins in 2008).  Now granted, he didn’t turn into the ace some thought he might be, he’s still a valuable piece to a team that’s going to contend for a championship.  I don’t understand why the White Sox wouldn’t give him a 5 year deal at market value (see what CJ Wilson signs for this year).  I completely understand why teams like the Brewers, Royals, or Rays need to let guys like Danks go, or deal them for players that can contribute on the cheap, but I don’t understand why the White Sox have to.  Chicago isn’t a small market and the White Sox spend more than 80% of the teams in baseball.  I digress.

Using the logic that seems to be in place with John Danks (trade him because you aren’t willing to sign him when he hits the open market), what’s the goal in dealing him?  Getting back a player that will develop into a player you will have to trade when he becomes too good?  Is this just a cycle of trading good players that become expensive for players you hope to be good when they are cheap?   

That’s what leaves me asking the question, what are the White Sox doing?  Are the Sox a big market team that competes for the best in free agency and fills holes by trading prospects for productive pros?  Or are they a moneyball team that is always dealing overpaid players for prospects that will overperform and give them 3-4 years of solid service at a discount? 

As the general manager, Kenny Williams needs to pick a philosophy and, pardon the pun, go “all in” with it. 

I’m ok with the White Sox wanting to go young, shed some bad contracts, and deal players that they have no intention of resigning when they hit the open market for prospects that make their farm system better.  But if that’s the direction we are going, I would hope to see some more money invested in the draft and player development.  And I hope our 2^nd best prospect isn’t Nestor Molina, a guy the Sox traded for a day ago.

I’m also ok with the Sox spending money on the right free agents and dealing prospects for proven major league talent in an attempt to win every year.  The AL Central won’t be bad forever, so while the Twins, Indians, and Royals are horrible, I’m all for trying to take advantage of that.  I’m all in for going “all in.” 

So now we are back to where we started, what are the White Sox doing? 

The trade of Sergio Santos (for more information on that, and anything else White Sox, check out my boy Jim Margalus on South Side Sox) started something that inevitably points to Kenny Williams trying to lower fan expectations of the 2012 White Sox.  John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Carlos Quentin are all being rumored to being moved and we are left to trust that Kenny Williams is doing what’s best for the Chicago White Sox. 

My hope is that KW’s plan of moving the White Sox towards winning another World Series title starts to make some more sense to me so I can stop asking, “what are the White Sox doing?” 

I Uh, I Did Not KNOW That - Part 2

With 4 weeks left to play in the 2012 NFL season, and the Bears falling apart, I’m starting to not care about football.  But what I do love about all sports, and football in particular, is statistics, especially statistics that aren’t discussed everywhere you look.  I wrote about this after week 7 (link after the jump) but here you go, another installment of, “I uh, I did not KNOW that.”

If anything, this information, if memorized, will make you seem interesting to talk to for about 5 minutes.

http://mustachesports.blogspot.com/2011/10/and-were-back.html

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning has more passing yards (3,705) than anyone not named Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees.

Tavaris Jackson has more passing yards (2,255) than Michael Vick (2,193).

Cam Newton leads the league in rushing TD’s with 13.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has more passing TD’s (20) than Philip Rivers , Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, and Michael Vick.

Tom Brady has thrown more interceptions (10) than Curtis Painter

Runningbacks

Maurice Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing with 1,137 yards.

Matt Forte has more rushing yards (997) than Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and Adrian Peterson.

Beanie Wells has more rushing yards (916) than Chris Johnson.

LeSean McCoy has more rushing TD’s (12) than Maurice Jones-Drew and Frank Gore, combined.

Darren Sproles has more receiving yards (522) than Reggie Bush and Chris Johnson, combined.

Wide Receivers

Victor Cruz has more receiving yards (1,076) than Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Hakeem Nicks.

Johnny Knox has more receiving yards (675) than Stevie Johnson.

Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are tied for second in the NFL with 9 TD’s and they play on the same team.

Wes Welker has 24 more catches (93) than any other WR in the NFL. 

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham has more receiving yards (1,046) than Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Hakeem Nicks.

Rob Gronkowski has more TD catches (13) than Calvin Johnson.

Fred Davis has more receiving yards (796) than Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Jermichael Finley, and Antonio Gates.

Kickers

Phil Dawson has made 7 field goals of 50+ yards. 

Mason Crosby has kicked more extra points than Phil Dawson, Josh Brown, and Adam Vinatieri combined.

Defense

The 49ers defense has only allowed 159 points this season (13.25 ppg).

The Colts defense has allowed 340 points this season (28.33 ppg). 

The Ravens have 41 sacks this season. 

The Bills have 17 sacks this season.

The Packers have intercepted 23 passes this year.

The Colts have intercepted 5 passes this year.