Friday, November 11, 2011

Week 11 College Football Picks and Ruining Your Friday

I was honestly going to write something about how I’m sick of hearing about this Penn State story yesterday but C-Murder told me to read the Grand Jury report before I posted what I had to say.  I read the Grand Jury report and will now not post what I was going to say.  It really is the sickest thing I’ve ever read and feel like I’m going to be scared for life because of it.  It’s all I’ve thought about all day and now I can see why everyone is talking about it everywhere you look.  There are going to be more disgusting details that will surface about this, we will have something for you soon on what we think of this awful, awful situation. 

If you want to read it yourself, google “Jerry Sandusky Grand Jury” and the Washington Post will have something for you with either the first or second link.  Sorry to ruin your Friday, here are me and Blake’s Week 11 College Football Picks. 

10 Virginia Tech -1.5 at 21 Georgia Tech*
Sef Sam Holy – Va Tech
Blake Witzman – Va Tech

19 Nebraska -3.5 at 12 Penn State
Sef Sam Holy – Nebraska
Blake Witzman - Nebraska

20 Auburn +13 at 15 Georgia
Sef Sam Holy – Georgia
Blake Witzman - Georgia

24 Michigan -1 at Illinois
Sef Sam Holy – Michigan
Blake Witzman - Illinois

Miami +9 at Florida State
Sef Sam Holy – FSU
Blake Witzman - FSU

7 Oregon +3.5 at 4 Stanford
Sef Sam Holy – Oregon
Blake Witzman – Stanford

*Swear on my momma we picked this game yesterday

Year to Date
Scott – 23-15
Sef Sam Holy – 19-16
Blake Witzman – 3-3

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Lovie Adjusting: Season to Season, Game to Game, Series to Series

The Stubbornness Era

Lovie Smith resurrected the Bears in 2005 and took the 2006 team to a Super Bowl with legitimate talent.  Lovie was stubborn; he had a simple scheme and old school football philosophy that he wouldn’t abandon.

His team ran the ball, did their best to limit errors from their “game manager” (QB), emphasized “takeaways”, and shortened the field with great special teams.

Those Bears teams had defensive talent that we will never forget.  Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown, Tommie Harris, Nathan Vasher, Mark Anderson put up ridiculous stats and the unit was producing turnovers and winning games.  The scheme meshed perfectly with the talent and success followed.  Stubbornness worked.  Lovie’s system worked.

Fast Forward to 2009.

The Bear’s best players were either fading away or disappearing all together.  On the defensive side of the ball, Mike Brown was gone, Tommie Harris would never be the same, and Urlacher sustained a season ending wrist injury.

The offensive side was in equally bad shape.  Matt Forte was hobbled and our line began their major decline.  Olin Kreutz was now officially old, slow , and undersized.  Johnathan Tait retired unexpectedly, the $15 million signing of Orlando Pace failed miserably, and Chris Williams was shuffled around in his “rookie” (injured most of 2008) season while looking out of place.

The reality hit us as fans, and it hit Lovie.  That generation of Bears had come to an end.  Highlighting the decline of our aging core of players was the concurrent ineffectiveness of our GM Jerry Angelo.  Very little new talent was coming in.

On to 2010: Lovie Adjusts

Lovie’s Cover-2 scheme needs real talent at certain positions, specifically from the interior defensive line and safety positions.  The Cover-2 could still be effective without Harris, Brown, Vasher, Anderson (remember his 12 sack season?), and an aging Urlacher, but it was no longer the type of dominant defense that would dictate the use of such a simple offensive philosophy.  Lovie realized that he now had a team that needed points from the offense to win games.  

Back in the day, he could run the ball a few times, grind the clock, punt the ball, and the defense would take over the game.  Those days were gone.

In firing Ron Turner, Lovie essentially fired his own offensive game plan.  Lovie and his current offensive staff had no experience in creating an offense scheme around a talented quarterback and, subsequently, made the Mike Martz hire.  

Give Lovie credit, not specifically for hiring Mike Martz, but for admitting he needed help.  His original players were gone and he adjusted.

The hiring of Mike Martz and the thought that he could bring the “greatest show on turf” here to Chicago had its own set of issues.  Martz’ overzealous faith in his offensive scheme backfired, the line failed, Angelo failed in obtaining the necessary talent, and Lovie thankfully pulled back the reigns.  He forced Martz to scale back the offense, limit the hits on Jay Cutler, and run the ball.  Lovie inaugurated the adjustment.

Led by Lovie Smith, the Bears now had two coaches with two stubborn schemes, both understanding the limits of their personnel and adapting to what they have.  While other contending teams were able to maintain their game plan and replace veterans with new talent from the draft, the Bears were forced to adapt their game plan around their weaknesses. 

If you look at the lack of talent on the 2010 team, and in hindsight, how lost the Bears were at the beginning of 2010, you realize how much Lovie Smith has developed as an NFL head coach.  That team had absolutely no business winning the NFC North and beating the Green Bay Packers.  He may be one of the worst at throwing the red flag, he shows no emotion on the sidelines, and has a boring personality, but you could never argue that his team didn’t have his back.  

From the very beginning, the Bears played hard for Lovie, but that’s only half the battle. 2010 proved he is much more than a nice guy with a simple scheme, he was willing to change with the game, and change with his team. 

2011

You know the story; the Bears came out of the gate with a great win against Atlanta and then proceeded to revert back to early 2010 form.  The line was lost, injuries hit, and Mike Martz got away from the revised Martz offense, and the Bears weren’t running the ball enough with their best playmaker, Matt Forte.  

Lovie once again initiated the adjustments and made tough decisions (release of Chris Harris) that have resurrected this team with minimal talent.

Mike Martz will still have his flashes of craziness (see Wildcat) but he too has taken Lovie’s lead and shown the ability to adapt.  The Bears are calling more roll outs to take advantage of Jay’s gun-slinging ability.  Cutler has had good games in the past, but he has never looked as comfortable as he has, specifically the last two weeks.  Yes it’s the line giving protection, but the line is performing better because defenses aren’t sure what’s coming.   If the Bears run, defenses aren’t sure if it’s up the middle, a toss play pulling linemen, or power run on the edge.  If the Bears pass, defenses can no longer tee off on Cutler by assuming he is going to be in the pocket taking seven steps, rolling out, or throwing a screen.   Time will tell if we can continue executing, but for now our offense is showing signs of being dynamic.  

2011 also has marked a first for Lovie, the willingness to adapt on the defensive side of the ball. 

Old Lovie stuck with his scheme with minimal adjustments, regardless of the team they were playing, the situation, or field position.  As a result, the Bears would always fare well against certain offenses, but always play poorly against others.

We are now seeing Lovie and his staff adjusting from game to game, from half to half, and from series to series, and its been fun to watch.  The talent at certain positions is still far from perfect, but the synergy on defense that Lovie seems to have discovered looks like it could be here to stay.

The Adjustment Era

The bottom line is that Jerry Angelo has given Lovie (and us Bears fans) a team that that really has had no business winning more than 6 games the last couple of years.  Rather than multiple weeks of Sunday football indifference, we have football to be excited about.  Lovie has given us football when Jerry has tried to take it away, and for that I am adjusting what I think of Lovie Smith as a football coach. 

Monday, November 7, 2011

Let's Get Random!

Some random thoughts about the sporting world from the past week or so.

The Alabama LSU game was the best game I’ve ever watched where the only scoring was 5 field goals. 

Even though the Honey Badger didn’t do a whole lot (except for taking out Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick on a play he will get suspended for), Tyrann Mathieu is still my favorite player in all of college football. 

Oregon Stanford this weekend is going to be awesome.

Denard Robinson shouldn’t be playing quarterback at Michigan anymore.

Oklahoma State is not going to finish the season undefeated.

I don’t know much about what is going on with the latest Penn State and Jerry Sandusky but it sounds really terrible.  Sandusky was apparently molesting high school football players in the shower at his camps.  No joke here, the book he wrote was called, “Touched.” 

The NHL is really awesome and I think Versus/NBC does a great job covering it.  I really wish more people cared about hockey. 

Losing the Vancouver last night was really disappointing but seeing how good the Blackhawks are going to be this year has me not missing the Bulls as much as I probably should.

Steven Stamkos, for my money, is better than Sidney Crosby.

I believe this lockout is helping the Bulls more than any other team in the NBA.  D Rose is so much of the Bulls offense that playing a shortened season is only going to help him when the playoffs start.  Rose’s legs will stay fresh and we shouldn’t see him run out of gas come late 
May like we did last season.

This lockout has made me hate David Stern.

College basketball is going to make me not miss the NBA as much.  I’m not a huge college basketball guy but this seems like a great opportunity to get to know it better. 

The thing I’m worried about more than anything with the Bears Eagles game tonight is the fact that I probably won’t go to bed until 11.  I still love the Bears and hope they win, I just think I’m getting really old.

I think the Bears are going to lose by 2 touchdowns. 

Chris Johnson is the reason I’m 5-4 instead of 7-2.

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are the reasons why I’m 5-4 instead of 3-6. 

Theo Epstein taking over the Cubs didn’t make me nervous at first, but now, after watching him hold press conferences and conducting business the way he is doing so, is making me think the Cubs could be legit moving forward. 

I really hope Albert Pujols doesn’t sign with the Cubs.

Robin Venture looks like Jesse Isenburg.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Fantasy Football Help

A lot of people around football have been coming to me this past week and asking, "how do you get so much out of your players each week in fantasy football?"  To be honest, there really isn't a secret, or magic formula, I use to motivate my players to outplay their projections week after week.  Call my success a reputation thing.  

Before I joined any Fantasy Football league, I developed a reputation around the NFL as being a coach players just love to play for.  Maybe it's my personality, or my football knowledge of X's and O's, or the way I'm able to relate to any player on my team (whether they are a 41 year old kicker, or the 1st round pick WR)?  Like I said earlier, there isn't a simple answer.  However, I still want to, and feel like I can, help the bottom feeders of their Fantasy Football leagues that really don't know what they are doing right now.

Here goes, here's how you can start getting the most out of your players in 4 Simple Steps.

1. Know Your Personnel - It's vital that you know the strengths and weaknesses of your players AND opponents.  If you know the Bears haven't been strong against the pass this year, make sure you are starting Calvin Johnson when he plays the Bears.  If you know Reggie Wayne is a terrible WR to own because of his QB situation, try to play AGAINST him as much as you can.  Anyone can do this, it’s just a matter of putting in the effort.

2. Be One of the Guys - Does Dwayne Bowe know I have the power to trade him on a moment’s notice?  Absolutely!  Does Matt Ryan know that if he doesn't start playing better, I could cut him just to make a point?  He sure does.  But you know what?  That doesn't mean the 3 of us don't go out for beers and shoot the shit.  Listen, if your players are going to go hard for you, they need to like you and be able to relate to you, not just on the field, but off the field.

3. Watch Football - I know this sounds obvious, but watching some of you coach your teams, it's apparent that you aren't watching as much football as you should. The 10pm sports clips on the local news won't cut it anymore, this isn't 1987.  Nowadays, we have shows like SportsCenter and NFL Live, watch them.  Make sure you are also checking your Comcast/Direct TV/RCN guide on Saturday night to see what games are scheduled for Sunday, and then making some time the next afternoon to watch them.  This will give you a great chance to watch your team and other players around the league.  Knowing more about football will also make you sound more like a man next time you are talking to me.

4. Have Fun - Fantasy Football is a game, have fun with it! Nobody likes losing so teams like yours are going to struggle with this one, but you gotta try.  Make up stuff about how you are in another fantasy league and are undefeated like most people do, this will make you feel better and after a while, you will start believing the lies that are coming out of your mouth.

Listen, I know Fantasy Football can be frustrating, it’s some hard stuff.  However, if you just take my advice and start following these 4 simple steps, you should start seeing more positive results.  If your team is 1-6 or 0-7 and the season is already over, take this wisdom with you for next year.  Good luck everyone, I hope this was helpful.



Tuesday, October 25, 2011

And We're Back!

After watching 7 weeks of NFL football, it’s getting difficult to provide you, the reader, with any sort of analysis that you don’t already know.  The Packers are awesome, the Dolphins/Colts/Rams may not win this year, the Lions and Bills are fun stories but both will probably somehow miss out on the playoffs, and we’ve all had a good time watching the Eagles start out 2-4. 

I’m a numbers fella, so here are some numbers that might make you go, “I uh, I did not KNOW that.” 

Mustache Sports gots backs
Maurice Jones-Drew is second in the league in rushing with 677 yards (96.7 yards per game)
Ben Tate is 9th in the league in rushing with 466 yards (66.6 yards per game)
Beanie Wells has 6 rushing TD’s tied for 3rd in the NFL
Matt Forte has 419 yards receiving, most among RB’s.  That’s one less yard than LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, and Chris Johnson combined.

Far out with the Wide Out
Calvin Johnson has 10 TD’s already and is on pace to score 23 TD’s for the season
Mike Wallace has 5 TD’s that are 40 yards or longer
Jabar Gaffney has 38 more receiving yards than Miles Austin
Preston Parker has more receiving TD’s (2) than his Bucs teammate Mike Williams (1)
Matt Forte has more receiving yards than Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes

How are the QB’s doing?
Ben Rothlisberger has more passing yards than Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman has more passing yards than Philip Rivers
Michael Vick has more rushing yards (378) than Rashard Mendenhall (374)
Cam Newton has more rushing TD’s (7) than every RB in the NFL other than Adrian Peterson
Rex Grossman, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers are tied for second worst in the NFL with 9 INT’s.
Josh Freeman has thrown 10 INT’s already this year after only throwing 6 all of last year.
Kevin Kolb has throw less interceptions (7) than Tom Brady and Drew Brees (8)

We talkin bout Tight Ends!
Jimmy Graham has 225 more receiving yards than the next best TE, Jason Witten (674 to 449)
Scott Chandler has 4 TD’s this year but does not yet have 100 receiving yards
Fred Davis has the same amount of receiving yards (423) as Vincent Jackson

Did someone say kickers?
Dan Bailey has 16 field goals made in 6 games
Josh Brown has 5 PAT field goals made in 6 games]

D-Fence
The Washington Redskins defense has 17 more sacks than the Buffalo Bills (21 to 4)
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yet to recover an opponent fumble
The Baltimore Ravens lead the league with 9 fumbles recovered
The Baltimore Ravens defense has only allowed 77 points through 6 games (12.8 ppg)
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed 207 points through 7 games (29.6 ppg)

Update on our Football Picking
And I’m with ya, we’ve been slacking in posting our picks for the weekly action the past couple of weeks, but NO MORE!  The fellas at Mustache Sports have been sending them in and I have the email proof to prove it.  So, without further ado, here’s our Picks Standings Year-to-Date.

College Football Picks
Scott Yasko – 23-15
Sef Sam Holy – 19-16
Blake Witzman – 3-3

NFL Picks
C-Murder – 30-22-4
Bert Kolson – 36-28-5
Sef Sam Holy – 33-25-2
Monster – 22-32-3

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Week Seven - College Football Picks

Sorry for the late post but I promise I've yet to watch college football today.  With the wife working, I had to run some errands this morning and literally just got back.  Here's our picks for the best games of week 7.  

11 Michigan +2 at 23 Michigan State
Scott - MSU
Sef Sam Holy - MSU

20 Baylor +8 at 21 Texas A&M 
Scott - Baylor
Sef Sam Holy - Texas A&M

15 South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State
Scott - Mississippi State
Sef Sam Holy - South Carolina

6 Oklahoma State -8 at 22 Texas
Scott - Oklahoma State
Sef Sam Holy - Oklahoma State

Florida -2 at 24 Auburn
Scott - Auburn
Sef Sam Holy - Auburn

18 Arizona State +14.5 at 9 Oregon
Scott - Arizona State
Sef Sam Holy - Oregon 

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Week 6/5 in Review - How Did We Do?

Every week at Mustache Sports, we take a look at the previous weekend to see how we did in giving you our prognostications.

Before I show you how we did against the spread last week, I have a couple things to tell you.

Last week, I bought a domain name for Mustache Sports.  We are working with some people who know how to make domain names into websites that people like to read.  It’s probably going to take a while but be on the lookout for updates and information on when we are going to have a website release party somewhere at a sports bar in Chicago.  I have a buddy (Johnny Bravado) that runs a clothing company and he’s going to take our website and transform it into shirts and hats we can pass out at this party.   

Speaking of t-shirts, congrats to Dave Martinez this week as he edged out our other participant, Frank Lombardo, in the picking NFL games against the spread for a free, yet to be designed Mustache Sports t-shirt.  As soon as it’s ready Dave, I got you.  But yeah, we want to do this every week so tell all your friends how easy it was to win and how your imagination is running wild thinking about what this shirt is going to look like. 

Last but not least, a big thanks to all the ladies that helped us with our NFL picks last week, it was by far the best thing we’ve posted on the blog.  I hope to be doing more stuff like that after the bye week so if you have any lady friends that aren’t really into football and want to write about football, email mustachesports@gmail.com and volunteer them for something. 

Ok, I think that’s it, here you go, How We Did in Week 6/5. 

Week 6 – College Football Picks

Scott Yasko – 3-4 (13-10)
Sef Sam Holy – 4-3 (13-10)

Week 5 – NFL Picks

The Ladies – 4-7-1
Dave Martinez – 7-4-1
Frank Lombardo – 6-5-1
Sef Sam Holy – 4-7-1 (37-32-3)