Mustache Sports

Week 5 College Football Picks

HEY MUSTACHE.... I'm back! The sabbatical was great: as Sef mentioned in the opener, there is a new Yasko hanging around now and I am damn thankful that I have been able to coordinate her nap/sleep schedule with the ND games so far this year. And now, Mr. Holy made himself a mistake... He went off to Europe with Mrs. Holy and gave me the ability to post whatever I want on Mustache. Challenge / opportunity accepted!

And my first order of business for the 2012 season is to quote the ESPN NFL primetime crew and say, “C’mon man!”  I missed the first couple weeks of college football and I have to return to statements like Auburn will be ranked in the top 20 at the end of the season and Michigan will beat Saban’s tide outright?!  On top of that I find a Mustache sports page filled with FSU graffiti!? Sef Sam, I’m not even going to address the prediction of a Denard Robinson led Michigan beating anybody in the SEC, much less Alabama (the Wolverines being ranked 9 in the nation to start the season was a ploy to make that Bama game look better than everyone knew it was going to be). But Ryan, I know you're new to the Mustache family and everything, and of course I welcome another Gold Domer with open arms to fight the evil forces of Sef Sam Holy's Seminole nation, but the War Eagles / Tigers (nobody should have 2 mascots by the way, it's greedy and confusing) have to rely on Kiehl "the furthest thing from Cam Newton" Frazier as their field general. Not ideal.

And the kid who played at the same high school in Arkansas that 2010 Broyles Award winner (with that national championship Auburn team) Gus Malzhan, got his first taste of coaching success at, has never proven that he is anything more than a high school athlete. And this is by no means a hindsight assessment, Auburn knew of their quarterback’s deficiency entering the season as when Kid Kiehl made his debut last year during a beat down in Fayetteville he managed to throw 2 egregious picks in just 4 attempts and walked away with a NEGATIVE quarterback rating. Gene Chizik has already relegated him to the "game manager" role, and if Auburn has a better quarterback last week against LSU, maybe one who doesn't throw 7 picks in his first 4 games, they beat Bayou Tigers. Perhaps the saddest reality on the tips of the tongues of the Auburn fans in Jordan-Hare stadium, however, is the realization that Frazier is the best they have. We saw Clint Mosley last year and he was anything but impressive, and so the more experienced option with an ailing shoulder remains plan B. But you know it’s closer to a plan B minus when no one is even stammering for the kid to have a shot at starting, too bad Coach Brian "Uncle Ricko" VanGorder can't chuck the tater.

But I digress. These are my first picks of the year and I am going to go at them alone this week because again, Sef is across the pond and Ryan has this awesome job where he gets to drink wine all day… and apparently all night too. But I want to start week five’s picks with a little something new for me this year. Last season, my 3 fans kept asking me, “Yasko, why aren’t you telling us who the best teams in the nation are? We already know your picks are far superior to Sef Sam Holy’s and so how about some insight into who you think is REALLY good?” And so for our tens of readers here at Mustache, this year on top of the Game, Intrigue and Lock of the week features, I present The Yickity Yes Top 5 where I will let you know who the REAL 5 best teams in the nation are right now. And so we obviously have a lot to get to; let’s get started.

 

The Yickity Yes Top 5: Week 5

                Yasko                                        AP                                          USA Today

1 -           Alabama                                   Alabama                              Alabama
2 -           Georgia                                    Oregon                                 Oregon
3 -           Florida State                            LSU                                       LSU
4 -           Oregon                                     Florida St.                            Florida St.
5 -           Kansas St.                                 Georgia                                Georgia

The most glaring difference in my, well thought out and analytically sound teams compared to the robot picks we get every week from the AP and USA Today is the absence of LSU. The simple reason for that is I don’t believe in them this year. And I know what they say about judging a team on one game, but you can obviously see how I feel about Auburn and LSU was a safety away from seeing Auburn in extra time last week. Granted, LSU out gained Auburn 351 to 183 yards, but pay very close attention to LSU’s game this week against Towson. The game is of course off the board with most books, by Towson boasts probably the best running back in FCS, Terrance West, who had a record 29 touchdowns last year as a freshman. The kid’s a bruiser too at 5’11, 230, and has a quarterback in Grant Enders who completes passes at a rate of about 75%, and so this is a well balanced Towson Tiger team on offense. Of course LSU wins this game, but pay attention to the first half score before the SEC team exemplifies their depth and scholarship advantage over the FCS school and if it were available; I would tell you to take Towson in the first half.

One quick note on K-State, they are really good and are going to sneak up on you. Big 12 champions? I will stick my neck out and say that after they travel to Morgantown in two weeks and beat the Mountaineers, the Cats will be the front runners in the conference. But after Kansas this week and a pretty solid Iowa State team next week, West Virginia is only the beginning of their gauntlet of a schedule as they end the season like this: Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., at TCU, at Baylor and finally home against Texas. And so we’ll really see what the senior Collin Klein can really do in the months to come, by my prediction is at least a trip to Dallas for the Big 12 championship game for Coach Bill Snyder’s team.

Texas -2 ½ at Oklahoma State
What has Texas proven to us this year? That they can actually pick a starting quarterback? That they can beat up on teams that lose to FCS schools? I am not going to be convinced that David Ash is an elite Big 12 QB until he beats some elite Big 12 competition and so this is a good test for him. He built a lot of confidence against Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole’ Miss building an impressive stat line of 703 yards and 7 touchdowns on 55 for 72 passing. And with the one-two punch of Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron out of the backfield, I think that Texas covers this spread and moves on to 4-0.

PICK: Texas -2 ½

Tennessee +13 ½ at Georgia
Aaron Murray is a senior and is starting for his third year for the Dawgs. Todd Gurley is a freshman and has burst onto the SEC scene by averaging 9.2 yards per carry so far this year. Michael Bennett and Tavarres King are fast, physical receivers amongst 12 different pass catchers this year for UGA. The result? The Dawgs currently have the best offense in the SEC which means they sit at the head of the table and I haven’t even talked about their defense. It’s a squad that this year that has been depleted with injuries and suspensions and after 3 tough games they proved last week that they are praise worthy as well. And oh yeah, the likes of LB Alec Ogletree and All-American safety Baccari Rambo may be back on the field this week. UGA runs away with this thing.

PICK: Georgia -13 ½

I am running out of time here, I wanted to post this before games started and that has long since passed. I actually want to watch some games today and so we’ll go rapid fire for the remainder of week 5…

Ohio St. +3 at Michigan St

Ohio State will soon be back under Urban Meyer and today’s win will prove a good indicator of that.

PICK: Buckeyes +3

GAME OF THE WEEK: Baylor +11 at West Virginia

It’s going to be high flying and high scoring and in a game like that I will almost always take the points

PICK: Baylor +11

INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK: Texas Tech -2 ½ at Iowa St.

The Cyclones have played everybody tough this year and Texas Tech may never get back to Mike Leach caliber football.

PICK: Iowa St. +2 ½

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin +11 ½ at Nebraska

The Huskers slipped and fell against a UCLA team that they are better than. But as the best team in the Big Ten (like being the skinniest kid at fat camp recently) I think they cover against a Wisconsin team that has proven they have no weapons outside of the concussion riddled Montee Ball.

PICK: Nebraska -11 ½

 - Yasko