Fantasy Football Help

A lot of people around football have been coming to me this past week and asking, "how do you get so much out of your players each week in fantasy football?"  To be honest, there really isn't a secret, or magic formula, I use to motivate my players to outplay their projections week after week.  Call my success a reputation thing.  

Before I joined any Fantasy Football league, I developed a reputation around the NFL as being a coach players just love to play for.  Maybe it's my personality, or my football knowledge of X's and O's, or the way I'm able to relate to any player on my team (whether they are a 41 year old kicker, or the 1st round pick WR)?  Like I said earlier, there isn't a simple answer.  However, I still want to, and feel like I can, help the bottom feeders of their Fantasy Football leagues that really don't know what they are doing right now.

Here goes, here's how you can start getting the most out of your players in 4 Simple Steps.

1. Know Your Personnel - It's vital that you know the strengths and weaknesses of your players AND opponents.  If you know the Bears haven't been strong against the pass this year, make sure you are starting Calvin Johnson when he plays the Bears.  If you know Reggie Wayne is a terrible WR to own because of his QB situation, try to play AGAINST him as much as you can.  Anyone can do this, it’s just a matter of putting in the effort.

2. Be One of the Guys - Does Dwayne Bowe know I have the power to trade him on a moment’s notice?  Absolutely!  Does Matt Ryan know that if he doesn't start playing better, I could cut him just to make a point?  He sure does.  But you know what?  That doesn't mean the 3 of us don't go out for beers and shoot the shit.  Listen, if your players are going to go hard for you, they need to like you and be able to relate to you, not just on the field, but off the field.

3. Watch Football - I know this sounds obvious, but watching some of you coach your teams, it's apparent that you aren't watching as much football as you should. The 10pm sports clips on the local news won't cut it anymore, this isn't 1987.  Nowadays, we have shows like SportsCenter and NFL Live, watch them.  Make sure you are also checking your Comcast/Direct TV/RCN guide on Saturday night to see what games are scheduled for Sunday, and then making some time the next afternoon to watch them.  This will give you a great chance to watch your team and other players around the league.  Knowing more about football will also make you sound more like a man next time you are talking to me.

4. Have Fun - Fantasy Football is a game, have fun with it! Nobody likes losing so teams like yours are going to struggle with this one, but you gotta try.  Make up stuff about how you are in another fantasy league and are undefeated like most people do, this will make you feel better and after a while, you will start believing the lies that are coming out of your mouth.

Listen, I know Fantasy Football can be frustrating, it’s some hard stuff.  However, if you just take my advice and start following these 4 simple steps, you should start seeing more positive results.  If your team is 1-6 or 0-7 and the season is already over, take this wisdom with you for next year.  Good luck everyone, I hope this was helpful.

And We're Back!

After watching 7 weeks of NFL football, it’s getting difficult to provide you, the reader, with any sort of analysis that you don’t already know.  The Packers are awesome, the Dolphins/Colts/Rams may not win this year, the Lions and Bills are fun stories but both will probably somehow miss out on the playoffs, and we’ve all had a good time watching the Eagles start out 2-4. 

I’m a numbers fella, so here are some numbers that might make you go, “I uh, I did not KNOW that.” 

Mustache Sports gots backs

Maurice Jones-Drew is second in the league in rushing with 677 yards (96.7 yards per game)

Ben Tate is 9^th in the league in rushing with 466 yards (66.6 yards per game)

Beanie Wells has 6 rushing TD’s tied for 3^rd in the NFL

Matt Forte has 419 yards receiving, most among RB’s.  That’s one less yard than LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, and Chris Johnson combined.

Far out with the Wide Out

Calvin Johnson has 10 TD’s already and is on pace to score 23 TD’s for the season

Mike Wallace has 5 TD’s that are 40 yards or longer

Jabar Gaffney has 38 more receiving yards than Miles Austin

Preston Parker has more receiving TD’s (2) than his Bucs teammate Mike Williams (1)

Matt Forte has more receiving yards than Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes

How are the QB’s doing?

Ben Rothlisberger has more passing yards than Matthew Stafford

Josh Freeman has more passing yards than Philip Rivers

Michael Vick has more rushing yards (378) than Rashard Mendenhall (374)

Cam Newton has more rushing TD’s (7) than every RB in the NFL other than Adrian Peterson

Rex Grossman, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers are tied for second worst in the NFL with 9 INT’s.

Josh Freeman has thrown 10 INT’s already this year after only throwing 6 all of last year.

Kevin Kolb has throw less interceptions (7) than Tom Brady and Drew Brees (8)

We talkin bout Tight Ends!

Jimmy Graham has 225 more receiving yards than the next best TE, Jason Witten (674 to 449)

Scott Chandler has 4 TD’s this year but does not yet have 100 receiving yards

Fred Davis has the same amount of receiving yards (423) as Vincent Jackson

Did someone say kickers?

Dan Bailey has 16 field goals made in 6 games

Josh Brown has 5 PAT field goals made in 6 games]

D-Fence

The Washington Redskins defense has 17 more sacks than the Buffalo Bills (21 to 4)

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yet to recover an opponent fumble

The Baltimore Ravens lead the league with 9 fumbles recovered

The Baltimore Ravens defense has only allowed 77 points through 6 games (12.8 ppg)

The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed 207 points through 7 games (29.6 ppg)

Update on our Football Picking

And I’m with ya, we’ve been slacking in posting our picks for the weekly action the past couple of weeks, but NO MORE!  The fellas at Mustache Sports have been sending them in and I have the email proof to prove it.  So, without further ado, here’s our Picks Standings Year-to-Date.

College Football Picks

Scott Yasko – 23-15

Sef Sam Holy – 19-16

Blake Witzman – 3-3

NFL Picks

C-Murder – 30-22-4

Bert Kolson – 36-28-5

Sef Sam Holy – 33-25-2

Monster – 22-32-3

Week Seven - College Football Picks

Sorry for the late post but I promise I've yet to watch college football today.  With the wife working, I had to run some errands this morning and literally just got back.  Here's our picks for the best games of week 7.  

11 Michigan +2 at 23 Michigan State

Scott - MSU

Sef Sam Holy - MSU

20 Baylor +8 at 21 Texas A&M 

Scott - Baylor

Sef Sam Holy - Texas A&M

15 South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State

Scott - Mississippi State

Sef Sam Holy - South Carolina

6 Oklahoma State -8 at 22 Texas

Scott - Oklahoma State

Sef Sam Holy - Oklahoma State

Florida -2 at 24 Auburn

Scott - Auburn

Sef Sam Holy - Auburn

18 Arizona State +14.5 at 9 Oregon

Scott - Arizona State

Sef Sam Holy - Oregon 

Week 6/5 in Review - How Did We Do?

Every week at Mustache Sports, we take a look at the previous weekend to see how we did in giving you our prognostications.

Before I show you how we did against the spread last week, I have a couple things to tell you.

Last week, I bought a domain name for Mustache Sports.  We are working with some people who know how to make domain names into websites that people like to read.  It’s probably going to take a while but be on the lookout for updates and information on when we are going to have a website release party somewhere at a sports bar in Chicago.  I have a buddy (Johnny Bravado) that runs a clothing company and he’s going to take our website and transform it into shirts and hats we can pass out at this party.   

Speaking of t-shirts, congrats to Dave Martinez this week as he edged out our other participant, Frank Lombardo, in the picking NFL games against the spread for a free, yet to be designed Mustache Sports t-shirt.  As soon as it’s ready Dave, I got you.  But yeah, we want to do this every week so tell all your friends how easy it was to win and how your imagination is running wild thinking about what this shirt is going to look like. 

Last but not least, a big thanks to all the ladies that helped us with our NFL picks last week, it was by far the best thing we’ve posted on the blog.  I hope to be doing more stuff like that after the bye week so if you have any lady friends that aren’t really into football and want to write about football, email mustachesports@gmail.com and volunteer them for something. 

Ok, I think that’s it, here you go, How We Did in Week 6/5. 

Week 6 – College Football Picks

Scott Yasko – 3-4 (13-10)

Sef Sam Holy – 4-3 (13-10)

Week 5 – NFL Picks

The Ladies – 4-7-1

Dave Martinez – 7-4-1

Frank Lombardo – 6-5-1

Sef Sam Holy – 4-7-1 (37-32-3)

Week Five - Bears at Lions

Bears +6 at Lions

The Chicago Bears (2-2)  head up to Ford Field to face a Lions (4-0) team in a much anticipated Monday Night Football showdown.

Are the Lions legit?  Can Matthew Stafford and Megatron continue to play at this level, and more importantly, stay healthy?  Are the Lions truly ready to be considered a top NFL team?  Can Jay Cutler take that next step and be the kind of QB that wins these big games?  Does this Bears team have what it takes to stay in the Playoff/Wild Card conversation?  Yeah, this is a huge game, and it’s a game where questions will be answered.

Without further ado, here are Six Things to Watch.

6 Things to Watch

Sacks cover up issues

What happens when the Bears defensive line doesn’t show up?  Steve Smith catches 8 balls for 181 yards.  Cam Newton throws for 374.  Drew Brees goes off, Aaron Rodgers chews you up.

The success of this Bear defense is predicated by getting pressure from their front four.  When the line plays well, so does our weak secondary.  In week 1 against Atlanta, Henry Melton and Julius Peppers were a force, and as a result our secondary shut down Matt Ryan.   Since that game, they just haven’t got the job done.

To win this game, the Bears need some sacks and batted balls.

  

Jay Cutler:  Psychology of an abuse victim

  

No one will fault Jay for trying to avoid a sack, but the early season issue has been bad throws and happy feet during the few times that he has had protection.  It’s hard to blame the guy given the abuse he has taken but he cannot let the lack of protection affect him on every play.

This made me think of a concept known as self-preservation. Bear with me here. First, bear with that pun, in fact, bear with it three times.

“Self Preservation is behavior that ensures the survival of an organism. It is universal among living organisms. In some vertebrates, pain and fear are parts of this mechanism. Pain causes discomfort so that the organism is inclined to stop the pain. Fear causes the organism to seek safety and may cause a release in adrenaline, which has the effect of increased strength and heightened senses such as hearing, smell, and sight. Self-preservation may also be interpreted figuratively; in regard to the coping mechanisms one needs to prevent emotional trauma from distorting the mind.”

I bring this up because we humans were not designed to be quarterbacks, and humans were certainly not designed to be quarterbacks in a Mike Martz system with a below average offensive line.  That said, the only way the Bears offensive is going to have success is if Jay gets more control over his innate tendency to self preserve (watching and avoiding lineman coming at him) and start focusing only on his wide receivers and completing passes. It’s the only way to become a great quarterback.

Toss it outside

With Chris Spencer and his broken hand there are still some questions about what lineup we will see in Detroit.

Gabe Carimi is still out, and the athletic ex-TE Lance Louis is back in and will start for either Spencer or (the more likely scenario) for Frank Omiyale at right tackle.  Despite the forced shuffling of the line last week, overall, you have to be pleased with the way the Bears blocked, specifically in the run game.

Pass blocking requires a level of communication and cohesiveness that will be hard to come by with an inexperienced and ever-changing group of big men playing on the road in Detroit, but we have a chance if we can run the ball.  

What stood out to me in last weeks 200+ yard rushing performance was the athleticism of Chris Williams, pulling from left to right as well as the effectiveness at Lance Louis playing tackle in the second half.  The recent pull and pitch play calls have really suited Forte and opened up a running game that has struggled up the middle.  Forte needs a gap to be successful, and more space means more gaps.  Keep pulling, keep tossing, and the Bears will control the clock and keep Detroit’s offensive playmakers off the field.

Mega-Good

I will try to be brief with what I expect our readers to already know. Maybe I am letting fantasy football stats play too large a role in me saying this, but if Tron stays healthy, and a plays with a decent QB, he can be best in the game.  He runs great routes, is massive, fast, can jump, block, and doesn’t drop balls.   CJ has eight touchdowns through four weeks, last year Johnny Knox and Devin Hester combined for nine touchdowns in sixteen weeks.

As we saw last week, you can triple cover Megatron and you still wont stop him.  The hopeful return of Chris Harris could help a little, but the only chance the Bears have at containing him is by our defensive line getting consistent pressure so Calvin’s routes are cut short.  It is all about doing something to affect the timing of their routes, double coverage will not contain that man.  

The Lions other weapon

The Bears will be focusing on Calvin, but they also need to be concerned with another first round pick that has loads of talent, Brandon Pettigrew.  The Lions took Pettigrew with the 20th overall pick in the 2009 draft and he is has played a large role in their resurgence.  After getting hurt in his rookie year, he game back in 2010 and caught 71 passes for 722 yards and four touchdowns.  The weapons on this Detroit offense are impressive, and with all the focus on Megatron and Javid Best (as a receiver) Pettigrew is in for a big day.

Play-Action in Prime Time

The good news for this Bears team coming off of a 200+ yard rushing effort is that they already have the play-action set up.  Will they use it?  Jay Cutler is most accurate when he is rolling out of the pocket, and Martz has somehow abandoned the key play in football.  The need for play action is even more important given the Bears collection of wide receivers.  It goes something like this: When your receivers are really bad, you need to trick the defense into thinking you are running so the bad receivers get open.  Even Ron Turner knew this.  Even teams with good receivers know this.  If it doesn’t happen this week, Mike Martz really needs to go.  There is no point in balance if you don’t exploit it.

The Prediction

Detroit is not a place where good things happen. In September alone, I have seen the Tigers defeat the Yankees and advance to the ALCS, I have seen the Lions go 4-0 and become the talk of the NFL, and to top it off, I even heard that Detroit auto sales were up 10% from last year.

I always say that a team with too many come from behind wins is never as good as their record indicates, and a team (Vikings for example) that blows huge leads is never as bad.  To get that far behind, you must have issues. To get that far ahead, you have to be doing something right.  My point is, the Lions, for how much love they have been getting, are far from perfect.

I can point to the loss of our best safety (Chris Harris) finally returning, the Bears recent ability to run, or Urlacher/Briggs/Julius, but this weeks prediction is really about me playing the odds and saying that all this good stuff happening in Detroit is going to stop for a week.  

Bears 24 Lions 21

Week Six - College Football Picks

So I step away from Mustache Sports for just a couple of days to enjoy the birth of my daughter, and Sef Sam Holy has decided to embrace women power! I have to say, our NFL picks this week,based on mascots, TMZ, and airline traffic control are if nothing else, damn entertaining! Way to go ladies.


But it’s college football time and let me start by apologizing to our tens of readers that I wasn’t able to get you your weekly fix of picks on time this week, but then again give me a break, I have been a little busy being in awe of the fact I now have a little Mustache cheerleader to raise. And if she was here last week she probably would have been scratching her head about that Nebraska pick to cover against Wisconsin. How bad was it? I didn’t even take my own advice at the window and cleaned up on the badgers who, led by Russell Wilson, are getting serious National Championship hype. Too bad they play in the Big Ten. But all in all, 4-2 is a good week and I really think it’s time to try and run the table. The lines this week, however, make perfection look anything but easy but we’ll go ahead and give it the old college try. Season record is now at a respectable 10-6 and here’s what Saturday holds:


17Florida +13 ½ at 1LSU


The Gators are in trouble. With senior quarterback John Brantley out heading into the SEC showdown in Baton Rouge, Florida will be forced to depend on not 1, not 2, but 3 freshman quarterbacks. Leading the trio is 6’4 235 lbs Jeff Driskel, a highly touted recruit out of Oviedo, FL who has done nothing but turn the ball over this season. His first career pass against FAU was a pick, and then he threw another interception followed by a fumble in the Kentucky game that led to the Wildcats’ only points. To make matters worse, after Driskel stepped on the field last week late in the second quarter for the injured Brantley, he only managed 14 passing yards on 2 for 6 passing. Yikes. No wonder offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss won’t commit to any of the three QB’s with the other two being Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy, neither of whom have ever seen live action. But the Quarterback position is just one issue facing the Gators who, if nothing else, proved that they still have a long way to go to once again be a top tiered team in the SEC, such as LSU.


Remember a couple of weeks ago, when LSU was headed to Morgantown to face West Virginia and I told our faithful Mustache readers to be on the lookout for #7 Tyrann Mathieu, whom I referred to as a “ball hawking, mouth smacking, cover corner badass?”  Well the rest of the country is starting to take notice, and Kirk Herbstreit has gone as far as to place Mathieu on his Heisman short list. And Mathieu is anchoring a defense that continues to confuse and stifle offenses in the SEC and beyond. They have held teams to 7 points or less in 3 of 5 games this season and with the UF offense now seemingly anemic, I fully expect that number to be 4 out of 6 after Saturday. Additionally, LSU adds a different dynamic to their offense with the return of Jordan Jefferson who Les Miles says will get significant playing time. Jefferson only got 7 snaps last week in a 35-7 win over Kentucky, but he made them count as he did not attempt a pass but had 4 rushes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Jarrett Lee is slated to start under center for the Tigers, but it may be that he is feeling the pressure of Jefferson’s return as he had his worst showing of the season last week throwing for just 169 yards and completing only 8 of his 21 passes. Because LSU’s defense has carried them all year, having Jefferson back might be the spark that puts this offense over the top. Regardless of which QB has the better showing this week Florida has no shot to win this game, and I honestly believe it will be as similar a blood bath as the Gators experience last week against Alabama. Take LSU to cover easily.


Scott - LSU
Sef Sam Holy - LSU


15Auburn +10 at 10Arkansas


I am in awe of the fact that Auburn is the 15th ranked team in the country. They keep finding ways to win, and behind QB Ben Trotter, they have a serviceable leader who has stepped in for Cam Newton quite nicely. The Tigers willed a huge, ugly win against South Carolina last week, edging Steve Spurrier’s bunch 16-13. The Auburn defense looked good, giving up just 289 yard of total offense and stopping the Gamecock pre-season All SEC running back Marcus Lattimore in his tracks as he rushed for just 66 yards on 17 carries. Remember however, that this is the same defense that allowed a track meet to break out against Clemson as those Tigers burned the War Eagles for 624 yards. Auburn is the definition of a Jeckyll & Hyde team on defense which makes taking a ticket to the window with them involved very scary. What is consistent is their offense, however, as Gene Chizik likes to throw the ball around 25 times a game while feeding the rock to Michael Dyer as often as possible. This philosophy led to 41 carries for Dyer last week and even though he managed 141 yards, that’s only a 3.4 yard average. So what do we make of this team? I really can’t say, and although it is difficult to put my finger on this squad, Arkansas is a little bit more predictable.


The Razorbacks contributed quite nicely to Texas A&M’s second half collapse for the second week in a row, as Arkansas was able to overcome a 35-17 halftime deficit. Tyler Wilson threw for 510 yards (the 5th highest in SEC history) and 3 touchdowns but Ronnie Wingo only managed 24 yards rushing. The commitment to the passing game, however, came mainly because Bobby Petrino’s team was coming from behind all day. The glaring deficiency in Arkansas’ win was that their defense gave up 381 yards on the ground and 628 yards total.  


My true advice would be to steer clear of this game completely. Arkansas’ key to victory will be to get Ronnie Wingo more involved as he needs to touch the ball at least 20 times a game. If Auburn can setup the play action pass by gaining yards on the ground through Michael Dyer, that balanced attack really has the ability to gain yards on the lacking Razorback defense. Tough decision here, but give me Auburn and the points and we’ll call it a day.


Scott - Auburn
Sef Sam Holy - Arkansas


12Michigan -7 at Northwestern


Denard Robinson is one of the best athletes in the country; too bad for Michigan he is no
quarterback. Although the Wolverine attack starts, finishes, and circles with and around
Robinson, the most completions he has had in a game this year is 15, which was his number last week against Minnesota. He has thrown for under 100 yards in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games and the only time he went over 200 was in that crazy circus of a match against Notre Dame. But what Denard Robinson adds to a game is that intangible effect he has on defensive coordinators' minds. You have to game plan for him and in that regard he is truly unique. Do you spy him? And if so, with who? If you keep a linebacker on him, you run the risk of being out run if Robinson scrambles. If you put a safety on him, you lose in coverage, and if you decide to spy an end the defense will not only take a hit on the pass rush, but also in defending that lead option that Michigan likes to run. And these are the questions and issues that Northwestern defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz (a Michigan Alum) will have to address Saturday night, and the success of his game plan to contain Denard Robinson will be the difference between a win and a loss.


On the other side of the ball for the Wildcats, they saw the return of Senior quarterback Dan Persa who, despite throwing 4 touchdown passes, was unable to lead Chicago’s Big Ten team to a win against the still undefeated Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois scored 21 fourth quarter points and came back twice to steal a victory from Persa and his Wildcats. But what was evident, was the difference in leadership and decision making ability between Persa and his fill in for the first three games of the season, Kain Colter. Colter was formidable and led the Wildcats to a great opening win against Boston College, but Northwestern built a pre season Heisman campaign around Persa for good reason. The NU quarterback will have even less rust this week when welcoming Michigan to Evanston.


And in Evanston on Saturday night, although it’s not the most hostile of territories, Michigan will still be facing their first road game of the season. The comfort level in the big house could be a disadvantage for the Wolverines as going on the road for the first time in a season is always difficult. There are breaks in routine which could lead to breaks in concentration, and the fact that this comes so late in the season can play right into Northwestern’s hands. I like the Wildcats with the points to make this matchup a good contest and look for them to possibly pull off the upset.


Scott - Northwestern
Sef Sam Holy - Northwestern


GAME OF THE WEEK


3Oklahoma -10 ½ at 11Texas


They will, they won’t; they are, they aren’t: the Big 12 flip-flops more than a congressman born in a red state, representing a blue state and seeking campaign funds while promoting counter issues to the current party affiliation. But with the seemingly inevitable addition of TCU that will help maintain competitive balance as well as a relevant and meaningful membership of 10 teams, it seems as though the conference, and therefore the Red River Rivalry, will have many more memorable matchups to come.


And this year is no exception. The 10 ½ point spread suggests that this game is not going to be close and reflects a dominant Oklahoma team that, behind Landry Jones, has lived up to their preseason number one ranking and then some starting off the season 4-0. But being knocked from their peak last week by LSU (and Alabama) without conceding defeat has left Bob Stoop’s Sooners with an axe to grind. Even though Stoops has said that he “agrees” with the drop in the AP pool stating in the Norman Transcript “The schedule (LSU has) played is something you have to pay attention to,” do not think for a second that he is not using that fall as motivation to his players.


And the timing couldn’t be more perfect. Two weeks ago against Mizzou, Oklahoma seemed to be going through the motions and after coming out and giving up an early lead, they were forced to come back before prevailing 38-28. But the game seemed more like an older brother throwing his younger sibling a bone every now and then just to keep things fun and interesting rather than the competitive shootout that the score might suggest. And if Stoops can’t conjure up some emotion and want to out of his team, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they gave up 532 total yards to the Tigers, OU will be in trouble against the Longhorns. Despite the fact they are the much more talented team and “bounced back” from the flat performance against their conference foe to easily beat Ball State 62-6 last week; that was Ball State … and this is Texas.


Opposite to Oklahoma’s flat-lined plateau is the upward direction that Texas has begun heading in since the benching of Garret Gilbert for the Quarterback tandem of the legacy Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash. And who would have thought, after watching Gilbert as a true freshman enter the BCS national championship game for Case’s brother Colt in 2010 and throw for just 186 yards while going 15-40 and throwing four picks, that this kid would be quitting the team and seeking a transfer less than 2 years later? (Anybody with eyes in their head, that’s who.) And since McCoy and Ash have taken over midway through the BYU game at a point when the Longhorns were down 13-0, Texas has outscored opponents 103-53 to Gilbert’s 34-22.


Coach Mack Brown likes using the young tandem with the view that “It takes (the) pressure off both quarterbacks because neither one has to carry the whole thing on his shoulders. If somebody has a hot hand, you just might leave them in.” And with young receivers such as freshman Jaxon Shipley (younger brother of Cincinnati Bengals WR Jordan Shipley) and sophomore Mike Davis to throw to, the Longhorns won’t only be competitive this weekend, but they’re set up to regain dominance in the Big 12 for years to come.


So it will be the Ash-McCoy combo that again leads the Longhorns into the Cotton Bowl against Landry Jones and his Sooners. And expect UT to make this more of a game than would have been suggested before the season began, but they have to do it by establishing the run and picking their spots in the passing game. Take Mack Brown’s squad and the points as they have the ability, especially in a rivalry game, to keep the score close.


Scott - Texas
Sef Sam Holy - Oklahoma


INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK 


Georgia -2 ½ at Tennessee


Short and sweet on my intrigue of the week because the new baby is finally sleeping which means my window for some shut eye is going to shrink the longer I sit here and write.


Georgia started the season off very shaky as they allowed themselves to take a beating in the Georgia Dome against Boise State. They lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina, and have gotten better with each passing game. Such is the case with teams that are so young. The bulldogs start 3 freshman (running back Isaiah Cromwell, wide out Malcom Mitchell, and linebacker Amarlo Herrera) and 5 sophomores, with 4 other freshman getting solid playing time. They have looked great in back to back wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi St., but they haven’t won in Knoxville since 2005.


Tennessee’s schedule to this point in the season has been weak. They did not look good against Florida, despite the look of the score, as they were down 30-7 when the Gators called off the dog.  And Montana, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are hardly top tier opponents. Tyler Bray slings the ball pretty well and makes good decisions as he’s tossed for 1,328 yards, 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, but those two picks came against the speedy Florida secondary. This is the best example of what they will face Saturday against UGA, and for that reason, I don’t believe the Volunteers will fare well.


Although you will be able to hear Rocky Top bounce off the Smokies that surround Neyland Stadium as 100,000 plus decked out in orange scream their faces off, I think the Dawgs quite them pretty early and go on to win this game, covering the 2 ½ point spread.


Scott - Georgia
Sef Sam Holy - Tennessee


LOCK OF THE WEEK 


Missouri -4 at 20Kansas State


I am still not sold on Kansas State as their win against Miami was gritty, but Miami has work to do. And last week against Baylor they were able to come back, but the Bears are a one man team with a Swiss cheese defense. Collin Klein and John Hubert run the veer option as well as any team in the country, but Klein still struggles to throw the ball and as I have mentioned before, this really hinders their ability to comeback in ball games. Last week against the Bears they were able to do so on the ground, which is a true rarity, and Baylor really helped out with terrible clock management.


Mizzou has a 3 headed monster on offense that we got an up close and personal look at both against ASU and Oklahoma. The sophomore James Franklin is a name you need to remember as he can do it with his legs and his arm, but would prefer to throw the ball. Running back Henry Josey is averaging 12.4 yards a carry and junior wide receiver TJ Moe is a gritty athlete with great hands who can and will take a hit across the middle and shake it off.


Take Mizzou ALL DAY in this game.


Scott - Missouri
Sef Sam Holy - Missouri 


HONORABLE MENTION 


Temple -9 ½ At Ball State


How about a MAC showdown for Mustache sports this week? As simple as this one gets: Temple good. Ball State bad.


Take Temple to cover.


Scott - Temple
Sef Sam Holy - Temple

Week Five - NFL Picks

I think it’s important when writing a sports blog, that you get "different perspectives."  Because your average fan really only watches 3-4 games per week, it’s hard to get hard-hitting, accurate analysis from Joe Regular Guy.  Sure, we know the Saints score a lot of points and the Chargers aren’t good in September, but it’s not because we actually study the X’s and O’s.  Basically, we just say things that everyone already knows, add that up, and come out with a prediction against a point spread that’s correct half the time. 

This week, Mustache Sports, has asked some female readers (Amy Smole, Natalie Smole, Molly Brown, and Daly Donnellan) to provide their insight into this Sunday’s matchups.  They may not give you any sort of strategic information about why a game will turn out a certain way, but they definitely provide a "different perspective." 

I’m also posting the picks from one of our readers, Dave Martinez.  If he’s able to beat everyone that’s submitted their picks, he will win a yet to be designed or made, Mustache Sports T-Shirt. Good luck!

Ladies and gentlemen, your week 5 Mustache Sports NFL Picks. 

Tennessee Titans (Pk) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I love the state of Tennessee and I had such a blast in Nashville one summer so this week I am putting my money on the Tennessee Titans to straight kill the Pittsburgh Steelers!

Amy Smole – Titans

Dave Martinez – Steelers

Sef Sam Holy - Titans

Seattle Seahawks +10 at New York Giants

I love the Manning family, I saw some special on them on ESPN one Sunday and ever since then I've been a fan.  This may be a tough call this week since both teams have such strong players, but I gotta go with my man Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

Amy Smole – Giants

Dave Martinez – Seahawks

Sef Sam Holy - Giants

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This one is an easy pick for me, Cincy baby!  Not only do I love their mascot, the Bengal, but it's Halloween so the black and orange is fitting for an October win.

Amy Smole – Bengals

Dave Martinez – Jaguars

Sef Sam Holy - Jaguars

New Orleans Saints -7 at Carolina Panthers

I choose the New Orleans Saints because Reggie Bush plays on that team I think, at least when he was dating Kim Kardashian.

Natalie Smole – Saints

Dave Martinez – Saints

Sef Sam Holy - Saints

Oakland Raiders +6 at Houston Texans

I’ve never heard of the Houston Texans ….so that name could be fake and you are trying to trick me.  Either way, I choose them because I went to Houston this year and it was awesome.

Natalie Smole – Texans

Dave Martinez – Raiders

Sef Sam Holy - Texans

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Buffalo Bills

Philadelphia Eagles will lose because Kendra’s husband is/was on that team and he is terrible.  But the Buffalo Bills….that name sounds fake to me too.

Natalie Smole – Bills

Dave Martinez – Bills

Sef Sam Holy - Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Indianapolis Colts

This is going to be a close game.  I think the Indianapolis Colts are going to pull through here.  Even though they are missing their quarterback, I think they deserve it after all the changes they've gone through in the beginning of the season.  This one is for Peyton! (even though I hear he cheats on his wife)

Molly Brown – Colts

Dave Martinez – Colts

Sef Sam Holy – Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Arizona Cardinals are going to destroy the Vikings.  I hate Brett Favre.  I know he doesn't play for the Vikings anymore but I don't respect their decision to have him as a quarterback.  I think since he's left they are having a hard time figuring out their place in the NFL and don't have a solid line-up.  But then again, I don't want Brett Favre to think they need him in order to win.  I'm predicting an injury from the Vikings is going to bring the Cardinals to the top this week.

Molly Brown – Cardinals

Dave Martinez – Vikings

Sef Sam Holy - Vikings

Tampa Bay Bucs +3 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco, just because.

Molly Brown – 49ers

Dave Martinez – Bucs

Sef Sam Holy – 49ers

New York Jets +9 at New England Patriots

My pick goes to New England for one reason and two words: Tom Brady.  It is all I know and it's all I care to know.  Class dismissed.

Daly Donnellan – Patriots

Dave Martinez – Patriots

Sef Sam Holy – Jets

San Diego Chargers -4 at Denver Broncos

Every time I fly out of Denver, my flight gets delayed. In August, I was stuck in Denver for 6 hours waiting to take off.  Where was I going?  San Diego.  San Diego wins my pick. 

Daly Donnellan – Chargers

Dave Martinez – Chargers

Sef Sam Holy – Chargers

Green Bay Packers -6 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta all the way.  They won the Super Bowl last year.   Plus, it's not like they run around with cheese on their heads so obviously I have to give winners my vote of confidence. 

Daly Donnellan – Falcons

Dave Martinez – Packers

Sef Sam Holy – Packers

Quarter Season Review Auction: Fantasy Football Trade or Keep

Monster will discuss players who are over/underperforming at this critical point in the season based on their Yahoo projections before the season started vs their actual rank.

Players to Keep:

Matthew Stafford:  Proj. 68, Actual 13

He’s proven so far that the injury bug has been swatted.  This guy is on fire and he has the weapons to put up devastating numbers.  If you have him, keep him, he’s turning out to be the best middle round pick of this year’s draft through the first quarter of the season.

Eli Manning: Proj 74, Actual 29

Mannings was unlucky early in the season with his WR’s suffering injury, but with that O-line healthy and some of the big playmakers coming back, as well as some rising talent in Victor Cruz, look for Eli to strive hard to turn their season around through the air.  Also, an injury plagued defense could mean battling to come back from behind in second halves all season long.

Cam Newtwon: Proj 211, Actual 4

I don’t think anyone picked this kid to be a star right out of the gate, but he is and we can bank on it because there’s nowhere to go but up for this kid.  Unless Steve Smith suffers a season ending injury, you can count on Newton to perform at a high level all season long.  The scary thing about this guy is that he’s a rookie and he still has a lot to learn.

Rashard Mendenhall:  Proj 5, Actual 122

There’s a lot of running backs I’m giving up on this year….Mendenhall is not one of them.  He plays in a power running offense that has gotten off to a slow start this season, but this team is tough and the Steelers will bounce back in every aspect of the game.  If the defense steps it up, it keeps the ball in Mendenhall’s hands on offense.  There are questions about their O-line’s poor performance this year but it’s still early in a season that had a short offseason from the lockout.  Keep your faith in Mendenhall.

Arian Foster: Proj 2, Actual 145

He’s been sidelined with injury but it seems he’s gotten the rest he’s needed and put up stellar numbers last week.  Consider him back to full speed and buy low on him if there’s a frustrated owner in your league looking to deal.  He is an injury risk but hey, it’s the NFL, everyone’s one hit away from being out for the season.

Steven Jackson: Proj 22, Actual 149

All signs point to recovered from his quad injury, and with a Week 5 bye he should return fresh and hungry as ever.  STL has struggled this year, but look for this team to make Jackson a centerpiece of this offense.  He’s too talented and can help the Rams control the clock to keep them in some football games in a weak NFC West.  Don’t quit on Jackson just yet.

David Nelson: Proj 276, Actual 102

We learned something this year: Buffalo has a good offense.  Stevie Johnson now healthy still helps Nelson, he’ll get the consistent targets which makes him great for a PPR league.  I see this guy only getting better.  No reason to think he won’t continue solid production as a WR2 or WR3/Flex

Dwayne Bowe: Proj 42, Actual 52

You could say this guy is playing to expectation, but the poor performance of KC overall this season is scaring quite a few owners this year.  Don’t fret.  Without a solid run game, I see this team trying to come from behind often this year and Bowe will be the primary deep target for Cassel…that is, if the O-line can keep Cassel standing longer than 2 seconds a play.  Buy low for him if you can.

Nate Washington: Proj 243, Actual 71

I like, I like a lot.  Britt is down, Hasselbeck is shoving it in Pete Carrol’s face, and Tennessee thinks they can make playoffs…maybe they can.  Washington is the new deep threat and favorite target of Hasselbeck.  This guy will have some high scoring numbers this season.  Don’t do anything stupid like dropping him for a favorable matchup with the flavor of the week (see Victor Cruz, Torrey Smith).

Roddy White: Proj 14, Actual 81

I’ll be contradicting this statement later by opting out on Matt Ryan, but here’s why White makes sense:  If the Falcons are this bad, they will have to keep throwing the ball.  I’m sure a big reason they’re struggling is that Roddy is battling an injury.  If he can get enough rest to recover, watch out.  He has the talent and the QB to get him the deep ball.  He’ll have ample opportunity most of the season as I see the Falcons playing from behind.  That, and Roddy is typically their possession receiver in that offense as well.  I’m not giving up on Roddy yet.

Players to Trade:

Matt Ryan: Proj 47, Actual 63

I will give up on Matt Ryan and the rest of this offense.  I don’t know what happened, but they lost whatever they had last year.  Maybe its injuries, who knows, but these guys look nothing like last year’s #1 seed.  Matt Ryan’s name still carries some weight, deal him for something, anything, just hope you have a backup in hand or a Matt Hasselbeck/Rex Grossman combo to start in favorable matchups.  This guy is proving to be a wasted pick.

Sam Bradford: Proj 93, Actual 236

Some had Bradford at the same upside level of Matt Stafford.  I didn’t buy it.  I was right.  Everyone in Missouri says “show me” for good reason.  Deal Bradford if you can, otherwise it’s safe to drop him at this point for someone who has been performing significantly better.

Kevin Kolb: Proj 86, Actual 104

I hope you didn’t over pay for this guy like I did in 2010.  This year is no different.  That offense is struggling behind a weak offensive line and I don’t see a weak NFC West helping them.  Kolb just doesn’t handle pressure well, and despite the weapons he has around him, I was just never sold on his consistency.  That’s what you need most out of the QB position.  Big numbers is nice once in a while, but you need solid production week in-week out from the QB spot.  Kolb can’t do that for you, there’s probably a few guys on waivers that can.  See Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselback, Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman

Chris Johnson: Proj 4, Actual 116

We all knew this was coming.  If you didn’t, make a list of players that hold out until the last couple days of training camp and have stellar seasons.  He clearly isn’t what he was, and I don’t blame the hold out as much as I blame the Offensive Line.  CJ2K is awesome when he has a huge hole to run through, but he can’t make it happen on his own like an Adrian Peterson can, therefore there’s no reason to think this guy will turn it around in 2011.

Beanie Wells: Proj 40, Actual 16

He’s not this good, and despite an easy division, I can’t see him maintaining these numbers.  He’ll get a lot of touches, but I don’t have confidence in that offensive line holding up all year.  They were bad last year, and they’re bad this year.  I wouldn’t bank on him being your RB2 all season long.

Darren Sproles: Proj 110, Actual 27

He’s the 3^rd back in a 3-back running offense.  With Thomas getting touches, and Ingram being the younger/stronger back on the goal line, Sproles is limited.  He’s put up good numbers now, but they’ve been on big plays which you can’t count on week to week.  Sell this guy high if you can and get a solid WR3 or better if possible. 

Eric Decker: Proj 238, Actual 22

I like Decker, I want to believe he’ll be solid all year as I think Orton really does like him, but there’s too many WR’s at the same talent level and if Denver is bad enough half way through they year:  Tim Tebow Time!  Decker owners don’t want to see Tebow behind center, and for this reason I’m selling Decker for something I can flex.

Devery Henderson: Proj 307, Actual 69

You probably already know, but Devery is the odd man out now that Colston and Moore are back to full health.  Devery may have some big catches throughout the season when the Saints go with 4 WR sets, but I don’t see that happening enough to justify starting Devery on a weekly basis.  Last week was an indication that you can’t expect the same numbers the rest of the season.  It’s probably too late to use him as trade bait at this point.

Reggie Wayne: Proj 30, Actual 100

It’s not Reggie’s fault I’m selling him, it’s Peyton’s.  Have you seen Paynter play?  In that Tampa game he was on the same page as all the other WR’s EXCEPT Reggie.  I think Wayne will gain too much attention this year as the primary deep threat and I like all the other WR’s over him right now.  I’m sure you can package this guy for an RB2 or flex player.  I just don’t think you can rely on him every week for catches.