Bears +6 at Lions
The Chicago Bears (2-2) head up to Ford Field to face a Lions (4-0) team in a much anticipated Monday Night Football showdown.
Are the Lions legit? Can Matthew Stafford and Megatron continue to play at this level, and more importantly, stay healthy? Are the Lions truly ready to be considered a top NFL team? Can Jay Cutler take that next step and be the kind of QB that wins these big games? Does this Bears team have what it takes to stay in the Playoff/Wild Card conversation? Yeah, this is a huge game, and it’s a game where questions will be answered.
Without further ado, here are Six Things to Watch.
6 Things to Watch
Sacks cover up issues
What happens when the Bears defensive line doesn’t show up? Steve Smith catches 8 balls for 181 yards. Cam Newton throws for 374. Drew Brees goes off, Aaron Rodgers chews you up.
The success of this Bear defense is predicated by getting pressure from their front four. When the line plays well, so does our weak secondary. In week 1 against Atlanta, Henry Melton and Julius Peppers were a force, and as a result our secondary shut down Matt Ryan. Since that game, they just haven’t got the job done.
To win this game, the Bears need some sacks and batted balls.
Jay Cutler: Psychology of an abuse victim
No one will fault Jay for trying to avoid a sack, but the early season issue has been bad throws and happy feet during the few times that he has had protection. It’s hard to blame the guy given the abuse he has taken but he cannot let the lack of protection affect him on every play.
This made me think of a concept known as self-preservation. Bear with me here. First, bear with that pun, in fact, bear with it three times.
“Self Preservation is behavior that ensures the survival of an organism. It is universal among living organisms. In some vertebrates, pain and fear are parts of this mechanism. Pain causes discomfort so that the organism is inclined to stop the pain. Fear causes the organism to seek safety and may cause a release in adrenaline, which has the effect of increased strength and heightened senses such as hearing, smell, and sight. Self-preservation may also be interpreted figuratively; in regard to the coping mechanisms one needs to prevent emotional trauma from distorting the mind.”
I bring this up because we humans were not designed to be quarterbacks, and humans were certainly not designed to be quarterbacks in a Mike Martz system with a below average offensive line. That said, the only way the Bears offensive is going to have success is if Jay gets more control over his innate tendency to self preserve (watching and avoiding lineman coming at him) and start focusing only on his wide receivers and completing passes. It’s the only way to become a great quarterback.
Toss it outside
With Chris Spencer and his broken hand there are still some questions about what lineup we will see in Detroit.
Gabe Carimi is still out, and the athletic ex-TE Lance Louis is back in and will start for either Spencer or (the more likely scenario) for Frank Omiyale at right tackle. Despite the forced shuffling of the line last week, overall, you have to be pleased with the way the Bears blocked, specifically in the run game.
Pass blocking requires a level of communication and cohesiveness that will be hard to come by with an inexperienced and ever-changing group of big men playing on the road in Detroit, but we have a chance if we can run the ball.
What stood out to me in last weeks 200+ yard rushing performance was the athleticism of Chris Williams, pulling from left to right as well as the effectiveness at Lance Louis playing tackle in the second half. The recent pull and pitch play calls have really suited Forte and opened up a running game that has struggled up the middle. Forte needs a gap to be successful, and more space means more gaps. Keep pulling, keep tossing, and the Bears will control the clock and keep Detroit’s offensive playmakers off the field.
Mega-Good
I will try to be brief with what I expect our readers to already know. Maybe I am letting fantasy football stats play too large a role in me saying this, but if Tron stays healthy, and a plays with a decent QB, he can be best in the game. He runs great routes, is massive, fast, can jump, block, and doesn’t drop balls. CJ has eight touchdowns through four weeks, last year Johnny Knox and Devin Hester combined for nine touchdowns in sixteen weeks.
As we saw last week, you can triple cover Megatron and you still wont stop him. The hopeful return of Chris Harris could help a little, but the only chance the Bears have at containing him is by our defensive line getting consistent pressure so Calvin’s routes are cut short. It is all about doing something to affect the timing of their routes, double coverage will not contain that man.
The Lions other weapon
The Bears will be focusing on Calvin, but they also need to be concerned with another first round pick that has loads of talent, Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions took Pettigrew with the 20th overall pick in the 2009 draft and he is has played a large role in their resurgence. After getting hurt in his rookie year, he game back in 2010 and caught 71 passes for 722 yards and four touchdowns. The weapons on this Detroit offense are impressive, and with all the focus on Megatron and Javid Best (as a receiver) Pettigrew is in for a big day.
Play-Action in Prime Time
The good news for this Bears team coming off of a 200+ yard rushing effort is that they already have the play-action set up. Will they use it? Jay Cutler is most accurate when he is rolling out of the pocket, and Martz has somehow abandoned the key play in football. The need for play action is even more important given the Bears collection of wide receivers. It goes something like this: When your receivers are really bad, you need to trick the defense into thinking you are running so the bad receivers get open. Even Ron Turner knew this. Even teams with good receivers know this. If it doesn’t happen this week, Mike Martz really needs to go. There is no point in balance if you don’t exploit it.
The Prediction
Detroit is not a place where good things happen. In September alone, I have seen the Tigers defeat the Yankees and advance to the ALCS, I have seen the Lions go 4-0 and become the talk of the NFL, and to top it off, I even heard that Detroit auto sales were up 10% from last year.
I always say that a team with too many come from behind wins is never as good as their record indicates, and a team (Vikings for example) that blows huge leads is never as bad. To get that far behind, you must have issues. To get that far ahead, you have to be doing something right. My point is, the Lions, for how much love they have been getting, are far from perfect.
I can point to the loss of our best safety (Chris Harris) finally returning, the Bears recent ability to run, or Urlacher/Briggs/Julius, but this weeks prediction is really about me playing the odds and saying that all this good stuff happening in Detroit is going to stop for a week.
Bears 24 Lions 21
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