So I step away from Mustache Sports for just a couple of days to enjoy the birth of my daughter, and Sef Sam Holy has decided to embrace women power! I have to say, our NFL picks this week,based on mascots, TMZ, and airline traffic control are if nothing else, damn entertaining! Way to go ladies.
But it’s college football time and let me start by apologizing to our tens of readers that I wasn’t able to get you your weekly fix of picks on time this week, but then again give me a break, I have been a little busy being in awe of the fact I now have a little Mustache cheerleader to raise. And if she was here last week she probably would have been scratching her head about that Nebraska pick to cover against Wisconsin. How bad was it? I didn’t even take my own advice at the window and cleaned up on the badgers who, led by Russell Wilson, are getting serious National Championship hype. Too bad they play in the Big Ten. But all in all, 4-2 is a good week and I really think it’s time to try and run the table. The lines this week, however, make perfection look anything but easy but we’ll go ahead and give it the old college try. Season record is now at a respectable 10-6 and here’s what Saturday holds:
17Florida +13 ½ at 1LSU
The Gators are in trouble. With senior quarterback John Brantley out heading into the SEC showdown in Baton Rouge, Florida will be forced to depend on not 1, not 2, but 3 freshman quarterbacks. Leading the trio is 6’4 235 lbs Jeff Driskel, a highly touted recruit out of Oviedo, FL who has done nothing but turn the ball over this season. His first career pass against FAU was a pick, and then he threw another interception followed by a fumble in the Kentucky game that led to the Wildcats’ only points. To make matters worse, after Driskel stepped on the field last week late in the second quarter for the injured Brantley, he only managed 14 passing yards on 2 for 6 passing. Yikes. No wonder offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss won’t commit to any of the three QB’s with the other two being Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy, neither of whom have ever seen live action. But the Quarterback position is just one issue facing the Gators who, if nothing else, proved that they still have a long way to go to once again be a top tiered team in the SEC, such as LSU.
Remember a couple of weeks ago, when LSU was headed to Morgantown to face West Virginia and I told our faithful Mustache readers to be on the lookout for #7 Tyrann Mathieu, whom I referred to as a “ball hawking, mouth smacking, cover corner badass?” Well the rest of the country is starting to take notice, and Kirk Herbstreit has gone as far as to place Mathieu on his Heisman short list. And Mathieu is anchoring a defense that continues to confuse and stifle offenses in the SEC and beyond. They have held teams to 7 points or less in 3 of 5 games this season and with the UF offense now seemingly anemic, I fully expect that number to be 4 out of 6 after Saturday. Additionally, LSU adds a different dynamic to their offense with the return of Jordan Jefferson who Les Miles says will get significant playing time. Jefferson only got 7 snaps last week in a 35-7 win over Kentucky, but he made them count as he did not attempt a pass but had 4 rushes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Jarrett Lee is slated to start under center for the Tigers, but it may be that he is feeling the pressure of Jefferson’s return as he had his worst showing of the season last week throwing for just 169 yards and completing only 8 of his 21 passes. Because LSU’s defense has carried them all year, having Jefferson back might be the spark that puts this offense over the top. Regardless of which QB has the better showing this week Florida has no shot to win this game, and I honestly believe it will be as similar a blood bath as the Gators experience last week against Alabama. Take LSU to cover easily.
Scott - LSU
Sef Sam Holy - LSU
15Auburn +10 at 10Arkansas
I am in awe of the fact that Auburn is the 15th ranked team in the country. They keep finding ways to win, and behind QB Ben Trotter, they have a serviceable leader who has stepped in for Cam Newton quite nicely. The Tigers willed a huge, ugly win against South Carolina last week, edging Steve Spurrier’s bunch 16-13. The Auburn defense looked good, giving up just 289 yard of total offense and stopping the Gamecock pre-season All SEC running back Marcus Lattimore in his tracks as he rushed for just 66 yards on 17 carries. Remember however, that this is the same defense that allowed a track meet to break out against Clemson as those Tigers burned the War Eagles for 624 yards. Auburn is the definition of a Jeckyll & Hyde team on defense which makes taking a ticket to the window with them involved very scary. What is consistent is their offense, however, as Gene Chizik likes to throw the ball around 25 times a game while feeding the rock to Michael Dyer as often as possible. This philosophy led to 41 carries for Dyer last week and even though he managed 141 yards, that’s only a 3.4 yard average. So what do we make of this team? I really can’t say, and although it is difficult to put my finger on this squad, Arkansas is a little bit more predictable.
The Razorbacks contributed quite nicely to Texas A&M’s second half collapse for the second week in a row, as Arkansas was able to overcome a 35-17 halftime deficit. Tyler Wilson threw for 510 yards (the 5th highest in SEC history) and 3 touchdowns but Ronnie Wingo only managed 24 yards rushing. The commitment to the passing game, however, came mainly because Bobby Petrino’s team was coming from behind all day. The glaring deficiency in Arkansas’ win was that their defense gave up 381 yards on the ground and 628 yards total.
My true advice would be to steer clear of this game completely. Arkansas’ key to victory will be to get Ronnie Wingo more involved as he needs to touch the ball at least 20 times a game. If Auburn can setup the play action pass by gaining yards on the ground through Michael Dyer, that balanced attack really has the ability to gain yards on the lacking Razorback defense. Tough decision here, but give me Auburn and the points and we’ll call it a day.
Scott - Auburn
Sef Sam Holy - Arkansas
12Michigan -7 at Northwestern
Denard Robinson is one of the best athletes in the country; too bad for Michigan he is no
quarterback. Although the Wolverine attack starts, finishes, and circles with and around
Robinson, the most completions he has had in a game this year is 15, which was his number last week against Minnesota. He has thrown for under 100 yards in 3 of Michigan’s 5 games and the only time he went over 200 was in that crazy circus of a match against Notre Dame. But what Denard Robinson adds to a game is that intangible effect he has on defensive coordinators' minds. You have to game plan for him and in that regard he is truly unique. Do you spy him? And if so, with who? If you keep a linebacker on him, you run the risk of being out run if Robinson scrambles. If you put a safety on him, you lose in coverage, and if you decide to spy an end the defense will not only take a hit on the pass rush, but also in defending that lead option that Michigan likes to run. And these are the questions and issues that Northwestern defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz (a Michigan Alum) will have to address Saturday night, and the success of his game plan to contain Denard Robinson will be the difference between a win and a loss.
On the other side of the ball for the Wildcats, they saw the return of Senior quarterback Dan Persa who, despite throwing 4 touchdown passes, was unable to lead Chicago’s Big Ten team to a win against the still undefeated Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois scored 21 fourth quarter points and came back twice to steal a victory from Persa and his Wildcats. But what was evident, was the difference in leadership and decision making ability between Persa and his fill in for the first three games of the season, Kain Colter. Colter was formidable and led the Wildcats to a great opening win against Boston College, but Northwestern built a pre season Heisman campaign around Persa for good reason. The NU quarterback will have even less rust this week when welcoming Michigan to Evanston.
And in Evanston on Saturday night, although it’s not the most hostile of territories, Michigan will still be facing their first road game of the season. The comfort level in the big house could be a disadvantage for the Wolverines as going on the road for the first time in a season is always difficult. There are breaks in routine which could lead to breaks in concentration, and the fact that this comes so late in the season can play right into Northwestern’s hands. I like the Wildcats with the points to make this matchup a good contest and look for them to possibly pull off the upset.
Scott - Northwestern
Sef Sam Holy - Northwestern
GAME OF THE WEEK
3Oklahoma -10 ½ at 11Texas
They will, they won’t; they are, they aren’t: the Big 12 flip-flops more than a congressman born in a red state, representing a blue state and seeking campaign funds while promoting counter issues to the current party affiliation. But with the seemingly inevitable addition of TCU that will help maintain competitive balance as well as a relevant and meaningful membership of 10 teams, it seems as though the conference, and therefore the Red River Rivalry, will have many more memorable matchups to come.
And this year is no exception. The 10 ½ point spread suggests that this game is not going to be close and reflects a dominant Oklahoma team that, behind Landry Jones, has lived up to their preseason number one ranking and then some starting off the season 4-0. But being knocked from their peak last week by LSU (and Alabama) without conceding defeat has left Bob Stoop’s Sooners with an axe to grind. Even though Stoops has said that he “agrees” with the drop in the AP pool stating in the Norman Transcript “The schedule (LSU has) played is something you have to pay attention to,” do not think for a second that he is not using that fall as motivation to his players.
And the timing couldn’t be more perfect. Two weeks ago against Mizzou, Oklahoma seemed to be going through the motions and after coming out and giving up an early lead, they were forced to come back before prevailing 38-28. But the game seemed more like an older brother throwing his younger sibling a bone every now and then just to keep things fun and interesting rather than the competitive shootout that the score might suggest. And if Stoops can’t conjure up some emotion and want to out of his team, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they gave up 532 total yards to the Tigers, OU will be in trouble against the Longhorns. Despite the fact they are the much more talented team and “bounced back” from the flat performance against their conference foe to easily beat Ball State 62-6 last week; that was Ball State … and this is Texas.
Opposite to Oklahoma’s flat-lined plateau is the upward direction that Texas has begun heading in since the benching of Garret Gilbert for the Quarterback tandem of the legacy Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash. And who would have thought, after watching Gilbert as a true freshman enter the BCS national championship game for Case’s brother Colt in 2010 and throw for just 186 yards while going 15-40 and throwing four picks, that this kid would be quitting the team and seeking a transfer less than 2 years later? (Anybody with eyes in their head, that’s who.) And since McCoy and Ash have taken over midway through the BYU game at a point when the Longhorns were down 13-0, Texas has outscored opponents 103-53 to Gilbert’s 34-22.
Coach Mack Brown likes using the young tandem with the view that “It takes (the) pressure off both quarterbacks because neither one has to carry the whole thing on his shoulders. If somebody has a hot hand, you just might leave them in.” And with young receivers such as freshman Jaxon Shipley (younger brother of Cincinnati Bengals WR Jordan Shipley) and sophomore Mike Davis to throw to, the Longhorns won’t only be competitive this weekend, but they’re set up to regain dominance in the Big 12 for years to come.
So it will be the Ash-McCoy combo that again leads the Longhorns into the Cotton Bowl against Landry Jones and his Sooners. And expect UT to make this more of a game than would have been suggested before the season began, but they have to do it by establishing the run and picking their spots in the passing game. Take Mack Brown’s squad and the points as they have the ability, especially in a rivalry game, to keep the score close.
Scott - Texas
Sef Sam Holy - Oklahoma
INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK
Georgia -2 ½ at Tennessee
Short and sweet on my intrigue of the week because the new baby is finally sleeping which means my window for some shut eye is going to shrink the longer I sit here and write.
Georgia started the season off very shaky as they allowed themselves to take a beating in the Georgia Dome against Boise State. They lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina, and have gotten better with each passing game. Such is the case with teams that are so young. The bulldogs start 3 freshman (running back Isaiah Cromwell, wide out Malcom Mitchell, and linebacker Amarlo Herrera) and 5 sophomores, with 4 other freshman getting solid playing time. They have looked great in back to back wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi St., but they haven’t won in Knoxville since 2005.
Tennessee’s schedule to this point in the season has been weak. They did not look good against Florida, despite the look of the score, as they were down 30-7 when the Gators called off the dog. And Montana, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are hardly top tier opponents. Tyler Bray slings the ball pretty well and makes good decisions as he’s tossed for 1,328 yards, 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, but those two picks came against the speedy Florida secondary. This is the best example of what they will face Saturday against UGA, and for that reason, I don’t believe the Volunteers will fare well.
Although you will be able to hear Rocky Top bounce off the Smokies that surround Neyland Stadium as 100,000 plus decked out in orange scream their faces off, I think the Dawgs quite them pretty early and go on to win this game, covering the 2 ½ point spread.
Scott - Georgia
Sef Sam Holy - Tennessee
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Missouri -4 at 20Kansas State
I am still not sold on Kansas State as their win against Miami was gritty, but Miami has work to do. And last week against Baylor they were able to come back, but the Bears are a one man team with a Swiss cheese defense. Collin Klein and John Hubert run the veer option as well as any team in the country, but Klein still struggles to throw the ball and as I have mentioned before, this really hinders their ability to comeback in ball games. Last week against the Bears they were able to do so on the ground, which is a true rarity, and Baylor really helped out with terrible clock management.
Mizzou has a 3 headed monster on offense that we got an up close and personal look at both against ASU and Oklahoma. The sophomore James Franklin is a name you need to remember as he can do it with his legs and his arm, but would prefer to throw the ball. Running back Henry Josey is averaging 12.4 yards a carry and junior wide receiver TJ Moe is a gritty athlete with great hands who can and will take a hit across the middle and shake it off.
Take Mizzou ALL DAY in this game.
Scott - Missouri
Sef Sam Holy - Missouri
HONORABLE MENTION
Temple -9 ½ At Ball State
How about a MAC showdown for Mustache sports this week? As simple as this one gets: Temple good. Ball State bad.
Take Temple to cover.
Scott - Temple
Sef Sam Holy - Temple
No comments:
Post a Comment