Players to Keep:
Matthew Stafford: Proj. 68, Actual 13
He’s proven so far that the injury bug has been swatted. This guy is on fire and he has the weapons to put up devastating numbers. If you have him, keep him, he’s turning out to be the best middle round pick of this year’s draft through the first quarter of the season.
Eli Manning: Proj 74, Actual 29
Mannings was unlucky early in the season with his WR’s suffering injury, but with that O-line healthy and some of the big playmakers coming back, as well as some rising talent in Victor Cruz, look for Eli to strive hard to turn their season around through the air. Also, an injury plagued defense could mean battling to come back from behind in second halves all season long.
Cam Newtwon: Proj 211, Actual 4
I don’t think anyone picked this kid to be a star right out of the gate, but he is and we can bank on it because there’s nowhere to go but up for this kid. Unless Steve Smith suffers a season ending injury, you can count on Newton to perform at a high level all season long. The scary thing about this guy is that he’s a rookie and he still has a lot to learn.
Rashard Mendenhall: Proj 5, Actual 122
There’s a lot of running backs I’m giving up on this year….Mendenhall is not one of them. He plays in a power running offense that has gotten off to a slow start this season, but this team is tough and the Steelers will bounce back in every aspect of the game. If the defense steps it up, it keeps the ball in Mendenhall’s hands on offense. There are questions about their O-line’s poor performance this year but it’s still early in a season that had a short offseason from the lockout. Keep your faith in Mendenhall.
Arian Foster: Proj 2, Actual 145
He’s been sidelined with injury but it seems he’s gotten the rest he’s needed and put up stellar numbers last week. Consider him back to full speed and buy low on him if there’s a frustrated owner in your league looking to deal. He is an injury risk but hey, it’s the NFL, everyone’s one hit away from being out for the season.
Steven Jackson: Proj 22, Actual 149
All signs point to recovered from his quad injury, and with a Week 5 bye he should return fresh and hungry as ever. STL has struggled this year, but look for this team to make Jackson a centerpiece of this offense. He’s too talented and can help the Rams control the clock to keep them in some football games in a weak NFC West. Don’t quit on Jackson just yet.
David Nelson: Proj 276, Actual 102
We learned something this year: Buffalo has a good offense. Stevie Johnson now healthy still helps Nelson, he’ll get the consistent targets which makes him great for a PPR league. I see this guy only getting better. No reason to think he won’t continue solid production as a WR2 or WR3/Flex
Dwayne Bowe: Proj 42, Actual 52
You could say this guy is playing to expectation, but the poor performance of KC overall this season is scaring quite a few owners this year. Don’t fret. Without a solid run game, I see this team trying to come from behind often this year and Bowe will be the primary deep target for Cassel…that is, if the O-line can keep Cassel standing longer than 2 seconds a play. Buy low for him if you can.
Nate Washington: Proj 243, Actual 71
I like, I like a lot. Britt is down, Hasselbeck is shoving it in Pete Carrol’s face, and Tennessee thinks they can make playoffs…maybe they can. Washington is the new deep threat and favorite target of Hasselbeck. This guy will have some high scoring numbers this season. Don’t do anything stupid like dropping him for a favorable matchup with the flavor of the week (see Victor Cruz, Torrey Smith).
Roddy White: Proj 14, Actual 81
I’ll be contradicting this statement later by opting out on Matt Ryan, but here’s why White makes sense: If the Falcons are this bad, they will have to keep throwing the ball. I’m sure a big reason they’re struggling is that Roddy is battling an injury. If he can get enough rest to recover, watch out. He has the talent and the QB to get him the deep ball. He’ll have ample opportunity most of the season as I see the Falcons playing from behind. That, and Roddy is typically their possession receiver in that offense as well. I’m not giving up on Roddy yet.
Players to Trade:
Matt Ryan: Proj 47, Actual 63
I will give up on Matt Ryan and the rest of this offense. I don’t know what happened, but they lost whatever they had last year. Maybe its injuries, who knows, but these guys look nothing like last year’s #1 seed. Matt Ryan’s name still carries some weight, deal him for something, anything, just hope you have a backup in hand or a Matt Hasselbeck/Rex Grossman combo to start in favorable matchups. This guy is proving to be a wasted pick.
Sam Bradford: Proj 93, Actual 236
Some had Bradford at the same upside level of Matt Stafford. I didn’t buy it. I was right. Everyone in Missouri says “show me” for good reason. Deal Bradford if you can, otherwise it’s safe to drop him at this point for someone who has been performing significantly better.
Kevin Kolb: Proj 86, Actual 104
I hope you didn’t over pay for this guy like I did in 2010. This year is no different. That offense is struggling behind a weak offensive line and I don’t see a weak NFC West helping them. Kolb just doesn’t handle pressure well, and despite the weapons he has around him, I was just never sold on his consistency. That’s what you need most out of the QB position. Big numbers is nice once in a while, but you need solid production week in-week out from the QB spot. Kolb can’t do that for you, there’s probably a few guys on waivers that can. See Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselback, Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman
Chris Johnson: Proj 4, Actual 116
We all knew this was coming. If you didn’t, make a list of players that hold out until the last couple days of training camp and have stellar seasons. He clearly isn’t what he was, and I don’t blame the hold out as much as I blame the Offensive Line. CJ2K is awesome when he has a huge hole to run through, but he can’t make it happen on his own like an Adrian Peterson can, therefore there’s no reason to think this guy will turn it around in 2011.
Beanie Wells: Proj 40, Actual 16
He’s not this good, and despite an easy division, I can’t see him maintaining these numbers. He’ll get a lot of touches, but I don’t have confidence in that offensive line holding up all year. They were bad last year, and they’re bad this year. I wouldn’t bank on him being your RB2 all season long.
Darren Sproles: Proj 110, Actual 27
He’s the 3rd back in a 3-back running offense. With Thomas getting touches, and Ingram being the younger/stronger back on the goal line, Sproles is limited. He’s put up good numbers now, but they’ve been on big plays which you can’t count on week to week. Sell this guy high if you can and get a solid WR3 or better if possible.
Eric Decker: Proj 238, Actual 22
I like Decker, I want to believe he’ll be solid all year as I think Orton really does like him, but there’s too many WR’s at the same talent level and if Denver is bad enough half way through they year: Tim Tebow Time! Decker owners don’t want to see Tebow behind center, and for this reason I’m selling Decker for something I can flex.
Devery Henderson: Proj 307, Actual 69
You probably already know, but Devery is the odd man out now that Colston and Moore are back to full health. Devery may have some big catches throughout the season when the Saints go with 4 WR sets, but I don’t see that happening enough to justify starting Devery on a weekly basis. Last week was an indication that you can’t expect the same numbers the rest of the season. It’s probably too late to use him as trade bait at this point.
Reggie Wayne: Proj 30, Actual 100
It’s not Reggie’s fault I’m selling him, it’s Peyton’s. Have you seen Paynter play? In that Tampa game he was on the same page as all the other WR’s EXCEPT Reggie. I think Wayne will gain too much attention this year as the primary deep threat and I like all the other WR’s over him right now. I’m sure you can package this guy for an RB2 or flex player. I just don’t think you can rely on him every week for catches.
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