Thursday, September 22, 2011

Week Four - College Football Picks

So 2-2 last week. That isn’t that bad of start, but if you were using my picks for “entertainment purposes only” then you lost 5% of your fun. (IF you don’t get that, don’t worry about it.) Anyway, let’s move on and hope to get on the winning side of things this week.

I have changed the Mustache Sports college football picks lineup slightly and have decided to give our faithful readers (all 5 of us) more picks. You can thank me later. But from here on out I will pick my “Game of the Week” which in my opinion will be the most entertaining contest; my “Intrigue of the Week” which will be a game that has considerable interest for one reason or another (it might be that one team has something to prove, teams are coming off big losses or wins, or any number of things); and then I will give everyone, the sure to become favorite: “Lock of the Week.”

So without further ado, here we go:

2LSU -6 @ 16West Virginia

I have had to concede defeat pretty early in my national championship favorite this season. It has become obvious to me that the Jimbo Fisher led Seminoles have a little bit more work to do before they can raise that crystal football. But the football team down at Louisiana State University does not. LSU smacked Oregon in the mouth, took care of Northwestern State, and stifled the Aggies last week in Starkville. And I could care less about what they do on offense as long as they continue to be formidable and limit their turnovers. What is winning LSU games is their defense, and more specifically, their secondary. Led by Tyrann Mathieu who, at 5’9, is one of the best all around defensive backs I have ever seen in a college uniform. He starts at corner, but doubles as their nickel back and the guy is a ball hawking, mouth smacking, cover corner badass and that is the only way to put it. SEC defensive player of the week already this year, would somebody please put this guy on their Thorpe watch list?! And oh yeah, his counterpart on the other side is preseason first team all SEC CB Morris Claiborne. Thrown in the hosses at the safety positions of Brandon Taylor and Eric Reid and there are 4 potential NFL first or second rounder’s in one defensive backfield. National championship? Yes please. And oh yeah they’re playing West Virginia, who is pretty legit, but LSU covers. Take the Bengal Tigers and feel good about it because the National Title will be won by an SEC team for the 6th straight time.

Scott – LSU
Sef Sam Holy - LSU

GAME OF THE WEEK

7Oklahoma St. +3 @ 8Texas A&M

The Big 12 is all but headed out the door, and the fact that this game is a great season opener by the conference is unfortunately overshadowed by the issues and weekly “rumors” of the most relevant teams jumping ship. So now the last ditch effort in reviving a dying conference is to force out the commissioner.

But really who cares? What makes this the game of the week is not only are these two teams evenly matched, but they may not even be in the same conference next year (A&M will most likely be in the SEC), so this matchup could very well be the last in a long time. Last year the Cowboys and the Aggies had a high scoring game that came down to a Cowboy winning field goal in the closing seconds, and I fully expect a barn burning football game on Saturday as well. Ok St. is averaging 52 points a game and is in the top three in the nation and the Aggies are putting up a respectable 41. Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State is the better quarterback and has thrown for over 1,100 yards in just 3 games, but A&M’s line hasn’t allowed a sack on Ryan Tannehill who will probably have a little more time to make decisions. And he will need it because although defenses won’t be a true factor in this game unless we see some turnovers, A&M will be coming from behind and the Cowboys getting 3 on the road is an early Christmas present. Take them to win straight up and get off to a great start in this, their last Big 12 season.

Scott – OSU
Sef Sam Holy - OSU

14Arkansas +11½ @ 3Alabama

Living in Atlanta, the heartland of the SEC, it is simply amazing to me to see how barren the streets are on Saturdays. Football is religion in the south and there may not be two more faithful fan bases than Arkansas and Alabama’s.

Arkansas has been busy scoring points this year but they have done it against the likes of Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy. The first two games were beat downs, but against Troy, despite a 24 – 0 start, Arkansas generally didn’t finish well and only won the game 38-28. At one point, head coach Bobby Petrino was mocking Quarterback Tyler Wilson’s throwing motion on the side line after he failed to complete a third and goal from the 5. Wilson is no Ryan Mallet, and throws like that will be picked off against the Tide. Wide Receiver Joe Adams is the Razorbacks’ biggest threat and already has 2 punt returns for touchdowns and has proven that he can take short passes and turn them into big gains.

But Alabama, ladies and gentlemen, is Alabama. The big surprise this year has been how their defense has stepped up after losing key starters on the offensive side. The unit has filled in the gaps and only allowed 18 points to be scored on them thus far and really the offense, led by the one-two punch of Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy, has done most of their work on the ground. Richardson already has 8 touchdowns and Lacy is averaging 11 yards a carry! The tide rolls, and believe it or not, they cover the large number. Repeat: don’t take the sucker bet here and make sure your ticket says Alabama at the window.

Scott – Alabama
Sef Sam Holy – Alabama

11Florida St. +3 @ 21Clemson

Take Florida State. I can’t say that enough. Clemson struggled mightily and had to come back to beat the Auburn Tigers/War Eagles. (Damn it, pick one!) The Tigers from Clemson seamed to score at will in the second half, and take this guarantee that those scoring habits will not continue against the Seminoles. They might have the best defense in the nation as they had 
Oklahoma looking mediocre and confused at times last week.

And EJ Manuel or Clint Trickett, it really won’t matter this week. Trickett has show in every game this year that not only can he get the job done; the pressure and big lights of a primetime game did not seem to faze him at all last week. Start chopping because I’m taking the “underdog” here too and I think FSU wins pretty easily.

Scott – FSU
Sef Sam Holy – FSU

INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK

North Carolina +6 @ 25Georgia Tech

Intriguing, because I am still waiting to figure out if the Yellow Jackets are for real, and a game against North Carolina is going to get us a little closer to figuring that out. Bryn Renner of the Tar Heels has been an efficient passer this season to say the least. Completing 81% of his passes while chucking the tater for almost 700 yards and 5 touchdowns, all he needs to do is cut out his bad decisions that have led to 4 interceptions. UNC does not throw up big numbers on offense, but rather does exactly what they need to while depending on their defense to win their games.  Everett Withers the interim ball coach in Chapel Hill has maintained the same philosophy as Butch Davis did and relying on their defense has led them to a 3 – 0 start. But here comes Georgia Tech.

When the Jackets put up 63 and 49 against Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee respectively, the reaction was minimal. But then they did it against a 2-0 Kansas team, granted they aren’t a powerhouse, but the Jayhawks aren’t a cupcake either. And it was the way that Tech did it. Opponents know, going into the game that they have to game plan to stop the run. The old wing-t style offense that Tech runs has been criticized almost from day one. But can it really work in the pass happy football landscape we live in today? 604 rushing yards tell me it can. 12 different ball carriers 7 of whom had 30 yards or more and 6 of whom had touchdowns tell me it can as well. And what about their passing game? Talk about efficiency, Tevin Washington went 4/7 with 164 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.
Try and stop that North Carolina. Tech covers and watch out for them to be a legit contender in the ACC Coastal this year.

Scott – Georgia Tech
Sef Sam Holy – North Carolina

LOCK OF THE WEEK

No big hoopla or analysis surrounding this pick; you just have to trust that I know what I am talking about.

Take Toledo +2½ traveling to Syracuse.

Scott – Toledo
Sef Sam Holy - Syracuse

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