Saturday, September 10, 2011

Week One NFL Picks

Every week during the NFL season our staff will pick winners against the spread.  How do we know so much about these games and pick them so accurately?  I'm not sure, we are really just sort of guessing.  


This week's picks are done by Bert Kolson



Saints +4.5             PACKERS  
I love Aaron Rogers this year. I expect him to be the top point getter in fantasy leagues this year.  Although I see a bounce back year for Brees as well with his runningbacks all healthy again.  After last year I expect the defense to be a force to deal with again this year.   I picked the packers by 7.

Sef Sam Holy - Packers

Steelers +1.5       RAVENS
I’m gonna go with the Steelers to cover.  You have big Ben back this year. You also have a defense that will probably be among the top 2 or 3 teams in football again this year and a healthy Polamalu for the time being.   Also I’m not completely sold on Joe Flacco either.

Sef Sam Holy - Steelers

Falcons -3               BEARS
I’m taking the Bears by 6.   Even though the falcons added a great pick in Jones.  They are changing their offense and going to the spread.  A change in philosophy usually means a few growing pains.   The Bears interior Dline looks to be stronger this year.  When these two teams met last year each QB threw 2 pics and 2 td’s.  Cutler had 300 yards to a meager 185 for Ryan.  I think the bears win by a difference of 2 field goals.

Sef Sam Holy - Falcons

Lions +1.5                BUCS
I love the bucs for this year.  A young offense taking another step and a defense that is better than the lack of attention they get nationally.  I Like Freemen to be a top 5 QB this year.  I think the lions give them a game but the Bucs make less mistakes in the end and pull away by 10 points.

Sef Sam Holy - Lions

Bills +6                   CHIEFS – I like the bills to cover for this game. They lost a lot of games by a very small margin last year.  They play well enough to let one mistake lose them the game.

Sef Sam Holy - Bills

Titans +2.5             JAGS 
The titans will dominate this game. Chris Johnson is happy with his new contract and itching to go off.  The Jags have no QB and no hope for the season.  Titans by 10.

Sef Sam Holy - Titans

Colts +9                   TEXANS 
This is a tough game to call.  It seems like injuries will keep away to big stars.  But the QB position is more vital than running back and the Colts are not the same team without manning. I take the colts to cover though.   I think they play ball control and keep this game close.

Sef Sam Holy - Texans

Bengals +6.5              BROWNS  
The Bengals are awful, they were a bad team last year and got worse in the offseason in my opinion.  I expect them to lose by 10 or more.

Sef Sam Holy - Browns

Eagles -4.5               RAMS 
This is a really tough one in my opinion. I expect the Rams to take a step this year and win their division.   The addition of Simswalker as a legitimate #1 receiver for Bradford allows this offense to go.  Another Year of Spagnola putting his brand on this defense they become a more well rounded team.  They Eagles have Vic and a really strong secondary however.  Bradford was solid last year but still had a good amount of pics.  I see the eagles winning the turnover battle and Covering and winning the by 7.

Sef Sam Holy - Rams 

Giants -3                   REDSKINS 
The Rexskins are bad but the giants are extremely beat up on defense.  Believe it or not I expect this to be a high scoring affair.  I expect Tim Hightower to show why he was dubbed a sleeper in fantasy leagues and have a big game.  In the end I expect Grossman’s inaccuracy to cost them the game.  An interception run back the other way will ruin his debut as the starter this year giving the Giants the win by 7.

Sef Sam Holy - Redskins

Panthers +7               CARDINALS 
I love this Cardinals team with Kolb.  Fitzgerald will show again that he is a premiere receiver.  Some of you may remember what Kurt Warner did when he got  the opportunity to throw to Fitzgerald every week.  We’ll also get a peak at what value Beanie wells has as a primary back and I think you may see a few surprise big games from some of the #2 and 3 wide receivers here.  I like cardinals to cover.

Sef Sam Holy - Cardinals

Seahawks +5.5           49ers 
I like the 49’s to win and to cover.  The seahawks are a bad team and now have a bad QB as well. Tvaris Jackson showed he was terrible in Minnesota with a ton of talent and the best back in the league behind him.   Now he has a RB who has lost his beast mode and terrible accuracy.

Sef Sam Holy - 49ers

Vikings +8.5               CHARGERS
I see this game as a blowout.  The chargers had the #1 offense and defense last year.  Special teams will be less of a factor with the new kick off rule eliminating a lot of the mistakes that hurt them so badly.  The Vikings window seems to have closed and with a few players out on suspension I don’t see this even being a game.   Chargers by 14.

Sef Sam Holy - Chargers 

Jets -4                         COWBOYS 
Is it tough to say I really have no idea.  We really don’t know what we’ll see out of Romo.  They don’t have the distraction of TO or Roy Williams this year.  They look poised to have a solid season with a legimate pass rusher and an improved offensive line.  I like the Jets to win by 3 though because of their defense and Sanchez just has too many weapons even if he is an Average QB.

Sef Sam Holy - Jets 

Patriots -7                   DOLPHINS 
I think the Pats to win by 3.  Even though the dolphins are a mess as an organization right now, Henne has a new weapon in Reggie bush and a chip on his shoulder an onslaught of critics saying how terrible he is. The Dolphins always seem to give the Pats fits every year.

Sef Sam Holy - Patriots 

Raiders +3               BRONCOS
I take the raiders to cover.  Their defense is better than people give them credit for and they can run the heck out of the ball.  I like the raiders to play a little ball control and cover and win by 6.  The Broncos Defense was miserable last year and I don’t think they did enough to dynamically change that in one year.

Sef Sam Holy - Broncos

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