Week Three - Packers at Bears Preview

This week's post was written by C-Murder

Packers -4 at Bears

The Bears and Packers met twice last year in the regular season, with Chicago winning the first game at home and the Packers winning the rematch at Lambeau.  This ultimately set the stage for an unprecedented (at least for those of us not around in 1941) NFC Championship clash the Packers won 21-14.

Last year might tell us a little bit about what to expect this year….

Last year in Week 3, the Packers set a franchise record with 18 penalties, Devin Hester returned a punt for a touchdown, and Jay Cutler had a better day than Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers were extremely one dimensional (45 pass attempts) and the Bears Cover 2 did what they try to do; bend, but not break.  The Bears won 20-17.

In Week 17, the Bears offense looked awful and Cutler was sacked 6 times while throwing for 168 yards and 2 picks.  Rodgers wasn’t a whole lot better throwing for 229, 1 pick, and 1TD.  The Packers won this game 10-3.  Ugly.

Then in the NFC Championship Game, Rodgers was efficient, but was once again held in check by a Bears D that refused to give up the deep ball.  Rodgers biggest play was making a touchdown saving tackle on a Brian Urlacher interception return.  Cutler got hurt, Todd Collins entered, and things got worse.  In the 3^rd quarter, Caleb Hanie was brought in and almost became a Chicago hero.  Game over.  Season over.  The Packers went on to win the Super Bowl.

This year….

In 2010, the Packers had more than their fare share of injuries and still went on to win the Super Bowl.  However, they never lost Nick Collins.  Collins is the heart of their defense, he’s Green Bay’s Brian Urlacher, and he is in his prime.  The loss of this Pro-Bowler instantly takes an already struggling Packers defense down a couple levels.

If there is one thing you can count on after the mauling that Cutler took in week 2, it’s that the Bears will run the ball.  The question will be whether or not their troubled offensive line can provide the holes to do it.  The loss of Gabe Carmi, who is developing into the Bears best run blocker, will not help.  We will see the Mike Martz “post Lovie sit down offense”.  Run first, stack the line with our TE’s, and occasionally go deep.  Will the Bears be able to provide enough protection for the Bears to be able to expose the loss off Nick Collins? 

Fun Fact:  In last year’s NFC Championship game, the Packers blitzed a member of the secondary 13 different times.  On those plays, the Bears QB’s had a 12.2 rating.  In Week 17, the Bears gave up 6 sacks.  Watch out, Jay. 

The Prediction

History shows us that this will be a relatively low scoring, ugly game that will be decided by turnovers.  The Bears should do their best to prevent Jay from getting hit by running the ball, but Cutler will still see his fair share of 3^rd downs where he will need to pass.  I think the Bears inadequacies on the offensive line, along with injuries at WR, (already one of the worst receiving cores in the NFL) far outweigh the loss of Pro-Bowl FS Nick Collins.  

Packers 24 Bears 17